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Elie Rosenberg

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  • Kronos Worldwide: Insiders Are Grabbing This 3% Yielder [View article]
    Nice piece. I also think KRO will be a good stock to own in 2012. Seems the overhang is a. Europe and b. feedstock ore price increases. But I think both fears are overdone and more than priced in at under $20. TROX might be even more interesting given their integration with ore feedstock. Some further thoughts on KRO and TROX:
    http://bit.ly/tJkZSj
    http://bit.ly/w1XCqE
    Dec 11 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Ship Lease: No Dividend Yet Spells More Upside [View article]
    The loss of the Zim ships was disappointing. Aside from the sunk cost of the deposit for the option it was an opportunity to pick up some incremental cash flows for a company that is growth challenged.

    I can't really speak to the LTV test. They didn't disclose how much they were under in the last test. My hunch is that the container market hasn't gotten bad enough for them to fail if they tested today, but there is still some time between now and November.

    Not great that we will have those two recharters, but again hard to know what rates will be like when its time to renew. One potential upside for cash flow that could help offset is that about 40% of the floating to fixed interest rate swap rolls off in March 2013. At current rates that would be a 7 million bump to cash flow if they let it float.

    As to timing of dividend I would think after (and if!) they pass LTV in November. I think conservatively we are looking at .25-30 cents given the short term hit of the dry dockings. I am hoping for .40- maybe pay a little out of the cash cushion for a few quarters but shareholders deserve it. Stock sorely needs some vision from management beyond saying they are managing the locked in charters and still pondering the dividend. I know financing and rate climates are uncertain but we need more of a vision about what GSL is going forward.
    Aug 23 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bottom Is in for Dex One Corp. [View article]
    The Google news is a joke, I did a post on it since I think it teaches a good lesson-
    valueslant.com/2011/06.../
    They have a runway until they need to refinance in 2014, but I don't see them pulling it off.
    Jun 21 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bottom Is in for Dex One Corp. [View article]
    What will stem the revenue decline? Do they have a competitive advantage with any of their online offerings?

    The Google deal is clearly not a big deal as you note.
    Jun 21 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CSG Systems: Taking It to the Next Level? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment Pill. It is interesting that a business like CSG that all things considered has done pretty well over the last decade has done nothing for those holding shares since 2001. But I am not sure it is due to management incompetence.

    The AT&T/Comcast litigation that was settled in 2003 hammered both the stock and the company as it drastically lowered pricing for its largest customer (and they had to pay out $100 million to make up for prior overpricings). Even without that the margins they were making would have reverted to the mean one way or another over time anyway. They don't have that much of a long term moat. The stock price in 2001 was based on unsustainable earnings.

    The only real big management spend of cash before Intec was the Kenan acquisition, which they were lucky to almost break even on. We will see what happens with Intec.
    May 30 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Ship Lease: No Dividend Yet Spells More Upside [View article]
    Thanks for the comment tweedn.

    Shipping stocks are definitely not the place to look for very steady dividends given the nature of the industry (wildly cyclical, high leverage), but when they do offer dividends the yields are very tempting for less risk averse income investors.

    I am coming at GSL as an investor interested mainly in capital appreciation, so our concerns are quite different.
    May 29 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Ship Lease: No Dividend Yet Spells More Upside [View article]
    Thanks for the comment Rich.

    I definitely view it as a capital gains play.
    May 29 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GAXC -A GOING CONCERN? [View instapost]
    GAXC is probably too small to try to get into streaming in a serious way. Their foray into DVD kiosks was late and new management recognizes that. Despite that I think their DVD kiosks on army base venture could work out okay, but still ATM seems much more attractive right now and too bad they diverted any cash flow to DVD.
    May 29 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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