Seeking Alpha
  • Elliott Auckland
    very pleased with the tax announcements for Gazprom (OGZPY.PK) http://reut.rs/IvKkgp
    5/2/12
    Reply (25)
    • iadops40: curious why you would like this? for shorting?
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: Analysts I spoke to thought that taxes would be 100% or greater, for how much of the profits it would take from the domestic px increases.
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: This now means they keep around 20% of the profits. (Russia are increasing domestic gas prices 15% pa for next 5 years)
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: This will create a huge EPS gain for Gazprom..I analysed in article, (and in comments below for todays news impact)
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: This is a company on 2.9x PE that has been depressed by tax worries.
      5/2/12
    • iadops40: ok, that makes sense. I saw their earnings were up 35%
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: This is horrible news for Novatek though, it was thought they would be "let off"
      5/2/12
    • iadops40: I think the biggest threat is Vladimir Putin
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: He isnt as bad as people make out. He has done a lot for turning Gazprom around. They were a shambles when he came to power
      5/2/12
    • iadops40: 2.9x PE?? Talk about undervalued and way oversold
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: Even for a Russian equity its incredibly cheap. The Russia discount is an index on 6x. Gazprom got whacked with a huge "tax" discount then.
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: Plus beating expectations on profits helps
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: Last years dividend was 2%, rising to 5% this year to be paid in about a month/2. Finally its a dividend name, after years of nothing
      5/2/12
    • iadops40: I certainly agree. I guess I am concerned with the risk of a YPF style government takeover
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: this fear is why its cheapi.. but Id be more afraid of them taking BP or Exxons Russian assets, than Gazprom's small int shareholders.
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: Russia doesnt need to make such controversial decisions, and anyway they are joining the World Trade Organisiation in August.
      5/2/12
    • iadops40: Nice, very great insight and information!
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: Thank you, I have a tough time convincing American investors about Russia - but the biases are what creates the value!
      5/2/12
    • iadops40: risk/reward my friend, I love snapping up undervalued companies, also 1/2 of my investments are in emerging market companies
      5/2/12
    • Mercy Jimenez: Elliott thanks for the update; enjoyed your 2 latest articles http://seekingalpha.com/a/btht + http://seekingalpha.com/a/btcj ;very nice
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: Thank you, I know Im an addict when at 2.30 in the morning -I'm london based. Im updating my model and writing my next article from this.
      5/2/12
    • Mercy Jimenez: Well at 10 pm ET I am trading AustraliaI + at 3 am ET will trade Norway -- so understand your addiction completely! Hope you get some rest.
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: I work for a long term investment fund thus I give 4 to 5 year price targets etc. But I see Gazprom on $38 in 2016 (8x my 2016 EPS) +240%
      5/2/12
    • iadops40: I like the sound of that :)
      5/2/12
    • Elliott Auckland: You know Gazprom market cap $140bn, XOM $409bn. Yet in BOE Gazprom has the same reserves as.. TOT, CVX, BP, XOM, RDS.A combined
      5/2/12