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Elliott R. Morss  

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  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What Do The Latest Numbers Mean? [View article]
    I asked Bill Zima, the PR person for XIN if he would try to have George Liu arrange a time to meet with shareholders when he is in NYC on his upcoming trip. He said he would pass the question on and suggested I get back in touch with him next week.

    Such a meeting could be enlightening for all attendees, including George.
    Aug 27, 2015. 05:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What Do The Latest Numbers Mean? [View article]
    Keep in mind too that the founder of XIN is the largest shareholder. He makes money when the stock price goes up. But right now, the leadership at XIN believes that investing in more real estate will ultimately add more value than buybacks or increasing the dividend rate.
    Aug 27, 2015. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What Do The Latest Numbers Mean? [View article]
    Sun Myung:

    I agree with you on this. Spending time with investors will provide both George and the investors with a better understanding of each. And with lower rates in China....
    Aug 26, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What Do The Latest Numbers Mean? [View article]
    Ian:

    I am not sure you have this right. While XIN is not catering to the wishes of its Western Investors, it probably is catering to the wishes of its founder who holds 29 million shares. He wants to make money, and he makes the most money when the stock price increases.
    Aug 23, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What Do The Latest Numbers Mean? [View article]
    James:

    Thanks for your comment.

    However, I am not in agreement with your interpretation of Malaysia. Despite the slumping demand for its exports, FocusEconomics projects GDP will continue to grow at a 5% rate, the budget deficit is declining, and debt as % of GDP is a moderate and sustainable 50%.

    And while exports are slumping, Malaysia has a current account surplus of 3%.

    Corruption? There is corruption everywhere - in the US, doctors are the leading source of illegal opium-based drugs.

    In Asia, you can protect yourself from corruption by having the right Chinese partners, and I would guess XIN has the right partners.
    Aug 23, 2015. 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What Do The Latest Numbers Mean? [View article]
    azbroker:
    You might be right from a strictly economic standpoint.
    But most US investors? Cutting the dividend would not sit well at all.
    Aug 22, 2015. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What Do The Latest Numbers Mean? [View article]
    Tenmycat:

    You might be right. I am increasingly of the belief that XIN wanted to invest with more leverage (debt financing) than TPG wanted. Real estate companies regularly get overextended, but so far, so good for XIN.
    Aug 21, 2015. 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: What Do The Latest Numbers Mean? [View article]
    Shawn0426:

    Thanks for your comment. Certainly XIN's prices have shown very little weakness.

    Historically, the Chinese have invested in properties as the West has invested in equities. And perhaps the Chinese equity sell-off is bringing some assets back into real estate.
    Aug 21, 2015. 06:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greek Drama Continued - How About A Little IMF Debt Relief? [View article]
    As I indicated in my piece, the IMF got off the "austerity train" back in 2011. And since then, the IMF technicians have been talking about a very substantial second round of debt relief. I am somewhat surprised how heavily they are pressing their point now.

    Sometimes, the views of the IMF's technicians differ from what the IMF politicos want to do. However, it appears Lagarde is now agreeing with the technicians.

    The problem with implementing a Grexit is the complete incompetence of the current Greek government. They should have been laying plans for this as a fallback strategy but I very much doubt this has been done. For example, new currency notes cannot be printed up overnight.

    One bright light is that while the IMF said it would not lend Greece and more money until it pays down its debt to the IMF, it said it would provide technical assistance to Greece if asked. If I were in the Greek government, I would have asked the IMF to help with a Grexit plan several months back.
    Jul 15, 2015. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greek Drama Continued - How About A Little IMF Debt Relief? [View article]
    Current Events: The split between the IMF and Eurozone widens as the IMF insists on large Greek debt writeoffs NOW - http://bit.ly/1JOJSKS
    Jul 14, 2015. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greek Drama Continued - How About A Little IMF Debt Relief? [View article]
    Freedom:

    I approach this issue differently: who in their right mind would buy Greek debt back in 2007 - 2009 when it was very clear Greece was in trouble?
    Answer: European banks.
    Why? Because European bank regulators were allowing banks to count sovereign debt as part of their reserves AS IF THEY WERE EUROS. And of course the banks say "sure, let's by Greek debt with a return of 5% or more.
    Jul 14, 2015. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Steps In The Greek Drama [View article]
    Jeffrey:

    I am not claiming the European Union is needed today to keep European nations from starting a 3rd world war. I merely said that was why it was created by Monnet in the first place.

    A little off the subject. But the US should re-institute the draft. Until we do, US wars will be media side-shows fought by soldiers from low income families.

    With a draft, parents with money and clout would ask tough questions before letting their kids go off to war.
    Jul 10, 2015. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Steps In The Greek Drama [View article]
    Rali:

    It is hard to feel sorry to the "investors" in Greece going back to 2007. The writing was on the wall and they lept foolishly for a high interest rate return.

    The lenders since then were just trying to cover for the foolish private investors, mostly European banks.

    Another site that publishes my pieces just put up a cartoon asking what the Greek people should do in the referendum. I said the following in reaction to the cartoon:

    "I was thinking about the Greek situation today. Your cartoon is OK as far as it goes, but there is much more to be said. Alexis Tsipras and Yanis Varoufakis have given the Greek people very little information about what would happen if they turned down the bailout offer. They have also said no to Greece exiting the Eurozone. The people have no way to grasp any of this. This government appears to be based on slogans with no real understanding of the predicament they are in and how to get out of it.

    My own view, initially stated in 2011, was that they should leave the Eurozone. I also tried to explain why and how. I feel sorry for the Greek people. They have been yanked around and provided with rhetoric instead of explanations.

    Their decision will not be an informed one.

    But it will not be the end of the world. Greece will ultimately survive and go on living life in their way.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Steps In The Greek Drama [View article]
    jyard01:
    Consider the 1990 - 2000 period. Your data suggest GDP in constant prices increased 20%. Over that same period, the value of the drachma fell from 93 DM to 194DM. My point is that exchange rate changes took care of discrepancies in "productivity" between Germany and Greece. And everyone was happy.
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Steps In The Greek Drama [View article]
    sleek:

    In an earlier piece, I said "In all the years I have been covering the IMF, I have never seen such a long list of policy changes being demanded of any country. The general categories include: fiscal reforms, pension reforms, health sector reforms, Social Security reforms, government performance reforms, and economic system reforms. In order to achieve these objectives, the Greek government has agreed to foreign technical assistance in more than 20 different fields." In essence, the IMF was trying to make Greece "as efficient" as Germany.

    Not surprisingly, it failed. Greece has "a different culture."
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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