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Elliott R. Morss

 
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  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    XIN is a very legitimate company. They are trying to make money via real estate, a risky business. They have definitely made mistakes along the way but their goal is to make money and get larger. Nobody I know anticipated the most recent interest rate cuts in China, but they will help.
    Nov 24, 2014. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    Those of you believing TPG is limiting itself to thinking about how it can make money by "doubling down" on XIN might be off the mark somewhat. I am sure TPG is considering many more investing alternatives right now with the $89 million it will receive from XIN than putting it back in XIN.

    My guess, and it is only a guess: TPG did not make its targets in XIN and it will try to sell its stock sooner than later.
    Nov 20, 2014. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    Panzerman:

    Good question. Most of the people buying and selling have little idea of China's RE market and XIN's role in it. That means even a glimmer of good or bad news will cause the price to move. But my sense is there will still be maybe 3 more "somewhat rocky months" meaning some not so good news meaning price "weakness". However, at current prices you have a pretty good dividend rate (and I doubt they will cut the dividend).

    PRUDENTLY? Investing in XIN is different than investing in a money market fund.

    And you will never get timing just right....
    Nov 19, 2014. 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    One other possibility not mentioned in article: a large China RE company wanting a NASDAQ listing buys XIN.
    Nov 18, 2014. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    One further thought on TPG's intentions: companies like TPG keep their plans private. But if they were going to stay invested in XIN for the long haul, don't you think they would have said something positive about the company when they asked for their convert money back? But so far, nothing. I sent my article to TPG's PR people but heard nothing back....
    Nov 18, 2014. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    ABS:

    Thanks for comment. On TPG, I hope you are right.

    But if TPG planned to stay as investors, why, at this point, with the RE market temporarily weakened, would they send a negative sign by asking XIN for $89 million back?

    Among other things, that payment cuts cash available for buy-backs and dividend maintenance.

    But I do hope you are right.
    Nov 18, 2014. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    Thomas:

    Thanks for your comment/question. I do not see any chance of bankruptcy. Keep in mind the company is making money. Even with the temporary RE slowdown, XIN is on track to make $31-33 million this year.My guess is that in the last two months, the banks have figured out how to implement real estate loosening policy and sales will increase over the last quarter of 2014. But even if it does not, the company has significant cash on hand to weathehr whatever happens.
    Nov 18, 2014. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate - The Real Story [View article]
    Anyone interested in an excellent, realistic picture of the China real estate market should read Andy Rothman's piece - http://bitly.com/1yyhvHz mentioned the the John Sheehy article - http://seekingalpha.co....
    Oct 25, 2014. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Study links hundreds of earthquakes to fracking [View news story]
    More seriously, the world is in a desperate search for more energy. And forget worrying about global warming, with the growing middle classes of China and India, the demand will continue to grow. China and India are happy to buy US coal exports.

    That is my best guess as to why Cheney convinced Bush to go into Iraq - to get control of their oil fields ) a total disaster).

    But at this point all have to understand this is a desperate search, risks have to be taken. small earthquakes? There is a chance that the water supply of a major city is compromised.... Like the recent Japanese nuclear disaster, these bad events will increase going forward.
    Oct 14, 2014. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate - The Real Story [View article]
    Likeit:

    Don't be apologetic for your comment.

    Nevertheless, I disagree.

    As I have said in earlier replies, it a mistake to view China as a single real estate market.

    RE Prices falling? Where? For most of XIN developments, prices they have have received for sales in their specific developments have increased year-on-year.

    I urge you to take another look at my tables on growing populations in cities where XIN has developments.

    The law of supply and demand: do these population growth rates suggest a saturated real estate market so prices will decline? I don't see it.

    High inventory is not a good sign if it means properties have not sold for some time.

    My point about XIN inventories is they are only now growing as more XIN properties come on line for the first time. And of course launching more new developments will mean debt increases because approximately 50% of RE developments costs in China are financed from bank loans.

    Does that mean XIN did not get timing right to keep inventories growing at a steady clip. Yes.

    But if I am correct, it will mean growing revenues in coming quarters and less cost which means higher profit.

    We will see.
    Oct 9, 2014. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate - The Real Story [View article]
    Yang Ai:

    Thanks for comment.

    I agree.

    And company strategy is all-important. Not only on development sites chosen (I believe XIN good on this), but on timing/implementation where if a few things go wrong, company has serious cash squeeze.

    For example, even though XIN development inventory ls good going forward, revenue streams from last two quarters were down, worrying Western investors....
    Oct 8, 2014. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate - The Real Story [View article]
    Peter:

    Thanks for your comment.

    I think it is a mistake to view China as a single real estate market. Right now, I am not enthusiastic about either Beijing or Shanghai. But look at the growth rates of other cities in Table 1. When you put this growth of demand for housing together with the demand coming from growing middle classes with increasing discretionary income....

    In short, the demand for improved housing will last in China for some time to come. Will there be blips? Absolutely. Is XIN the right investment vehicle for this growth? It remains to be seen....
    Oct 7, 2014. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner Redux: More Will Be Learned From Starr International Co., Inc. V. United States, Case No. 11-00779 [View article]
    Bank runs happen because people panic. If they panic, they try to withdraw all deposits. W/out bailout, there would have been a lot of panic.
    Oct 4, 2014. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner Redux: More Will Be Learned From Starr International Co., Inc. V. United States, Case No. 11-00779 [View article]
    captainccs:

    Thanks for your comment. We live in a country where "civilians" run things. This means our Defense Secretary is rarely a military officer and our Secretary of Health is rarely a doctor.

    In finance, I am uneasy when all the top dogs will take bank jobs when they leave government. There are many academics teaching in business schools all over the country that are extremely knowledgeable on finance who would have no interest in taking a banking job after a stint of government service.
    I agree with you that what the judge concludes (and new infomation forthcoming) will be interesting.
    Oct 3, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate - The Real Story [View article]
    Diligent CPA:

    Keep in mind that Chinese real estate developers play a far more conservative game than Western developers. They like to finance everything from cash and no more than 50% bank loans. This is why they often pass on Western investment help. Western investors like them to borrow 80-90% from bank loans so they have higher leverage. The Chinese don't like to go nearly that high....
    Oct 3, 2014. 02:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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