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Elliott R. Morss

 
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  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    JN:

    Well put.
    Dec 22, 2014. 08:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    Chris:

    Thanks for addressing this interesting topic.

    A commentator said he was troubled by the SA "writers with few or no qualifications". I wonder what "qualifications" he thinks are needed. I kook for good ideas - ideas I have not thought of and data.

    On stocks or other publicly traded investments, I am troubled if I sense the author has not taken the time to review the SEC filings....

    On moderating comments, I reference the SA editor above talking about readers reporting abuse. I report abuse regularly when I see a comment criticizing an author that makes no reference to the topic of the article. I view it as a "civic duty" - to maintain the high quality of the comment section. I don't know of another financial site with comment section even close to SA's. I always learn something new from SA comments on my pieces.

    I rarely write an article for pay on SA because I want exposure (and comments) from as many sites as will post my pieces.

    Incidentally, when I checked Chris' profile, I note he does not have a "Perfomance" tab, even though he has written a lot of for pay articles.

    I did a piece on the SA performance data that might make you chuckle - http://seekingalpha.co....
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    CB:

    Take a look at data in Tables 2 and 3 and related text. XIN has plenty to cover debt if they get anything like the average square meter price they have received on prior sales. I figured they would get $1.6 billion if they sell active properties at prices they have been getting. In addition, they have another one million square meters under development that should yield another $1 billion at prices they have been getting.
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Buyback Is A Short-Term Catalyst [View article]
    VM:

    So XIN was NEVER on the site? I only checked a couple of weeks ago. Actually never on the site is better news than that they removed it....

    Theories for never: in their press releases, XIN refers to TPG Asia and not just TPG.
    Dec 8, 2014. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Buyback Is A Short-Term Catalyst [View article]
    Regarding what TPG is likely to do with its 7% of the companies shares, it might be notable that XIN is not even mentioned on the TPG web site. I don't know if was mentioned earlier, but I view this as a bit ominous....
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Saudis Didn't Cut Oil Production [View article]
    In the above, a number of commentators have put out one or another set of numbers to make their point. For a comprehensive picture on energy consumption today and what the future holds, see - http://bit.ly/1Ae7fFr.

    The bottom line is that whatever happens in the US and other developed nations, global coal consumption will grow for a number of years as will CO2 emissions. This growth will be driven by the huge and growing energy demands of China and India.
    Dec 2, 2014. 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Saudis Didn't Cut Oil Production [View article]
    Mr. Reitman:

    I agree. I suggested a hedge against an oil price spike back in August - http://bit.ly/1vDrI6w.

    The timing was off. But just look at the major oil suppliers. If just one or two of those powder kegs blows, we will be looking at the oil sector very differently.
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Buyback Is A Short-Term Catalyst [View article]
    VM:

    Thanks for your article.

    Many Western stockholders believe a buyback would be beneficial for them. It appears the management of XIN differs and believes this is the time to invest in more Chinese RE to develop.

    Keep in mind too that XIN just had to pay out an unexpected $86 million to TPG for its converts. (frame of reference - according to its latest SEC report, XIN had $319 million in cash at the end of September).

    VM: On your share calculation, are you sure the converts were included in the previously reported shares outstanding? And then there is the 7.6% of the company's equity that the company says TPG still holds. I anticipate TPG will start liquidating this shortly, and this will dampen price growth for a time.

    Why is XIN priced so reasonably? Because there are many, like johndrew above, who think the company is a a scam. Be grateful for such people. They allow us to buy a growth company at a very reasonable price.
    Nov 29, 2014. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    XIN is a very legitimate company. They are trying to make money via real estate, a risky business. They have definitely made mistakes along the way but their goal is to make money and get larger. Nobody I know anticipated the most recent interest rate cuts in China, but they will help.
    Nov 24, 2014. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    Those of you believing TPG is limiting itself to thinking about how it can make money by "doubling down" on XIN might be off the mark somewhat. I am sure TPG is considering many more investing alternatives right now with the $89 million it will receive from XIN than putting it back in XIN.

    My guess, and it is only a guess: TPG did not make its targets in XIN and it will try to sell its stock sooner than later.
    Nov 20, 2014. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    Panzerman:

    Good question. Most of the people buying and selling have little idea of China's RE market and XIN's role in it. That means even a glimmer of good or bad news will cause the price to move. But my sense is there will still be maybe 3 more "somewhat rocky months" meaning some not so good news meaning price "weakness". However, at current prices you have a pretty good dividend rate (and I doubt they will cut the dividend).

    PRUDENTLY? Investing in XIN is different than investing in a money market fund.

    And you will never get timing just right....
    Nov 19, 2014. 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    One other possibility not mentioned in article: a large China RE company wanting a NASDAQ listing buys XIN.
    Nov 18, 2014. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    One further thought on TPG's intentions: companies like TPG keep their plans private. But if they were going to stay invested in XIN for the long haul, don't you think they would have said something positive about the company when they asked for their convert money back? But so far, nothing. I sent my article to TPG's PR people but heard nothing back....
    Nov 18, 2014. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    ABS:

    Thanks for comment. On TPG, I hope you are right.

    But if TPG planned to stay as investors, why, at this point, with the RE market temporarily weakened, would they send a negative sign by asking XIN for $89 million back?

    Among other things, that payment cuts cash available for buy-backs and dividend maintenance.

    But I do hope you are right.
    Nov 18, 2014. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent News From Xinyuan Real Estate Not Good, But... [View article]
    Thomas:

    Thanks for your comment/question. I do not see any chance of bankruptcy. Keep in mind the company is making money. Even with the temporary RE slowdown, XIN is on track to make $31-33 million this year.My guess is that in the last two months, the banks have figured out how to implement real estate loosening policy and sales will increase over the last quarter of 2014. But even if it does not, the company has significant cash on hand to weathehr whatever happens.
    Nov 18, 2014. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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