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Elusio Barbarossa

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  • Apple's Disruptive Mobile Payments Could Threaten Google [View article]
    Why would an advertiser be interested to pay countless clicks made by someone incentivized to click? Other than that sounds as a worthy idea. Of course Google will copy it at once...
    Jan 27 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's China Mobile Sell-Off Creates An Attractive Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Good detective work with that picture. NYT tends to be generally quite negative on Apple. I remember the piece on IOS 7 which was unfair but never retracted. Maybe because one of Bromwich's sons works for NYT....
    Jan 21 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Turnaround Story In 2014 Will Be J.C. Penney [View article]
    Good arguments, lots of work. Congratulations for the article. I wonder if the progress shown here is sustainable considering a few things:
    - the competitive environment;
    - OPEX already stretched (can they go any lower? ... );
    - the difficulty to increase sales absent meaningful promotions (hence pressure on gross margins). The commoditised character of the merchandise sold by JCP makes differentiation difficult (hence pressure on gross margins);
    - at least one of Mr. Ullman's statements was contradicted by facts (capital raising denied just before it happened). He also said that vendor's trust is there (but LC's went up to 6.6% of net sales) and that he is happy with the results but released no numbers ...
    - Warren Buffet himself said JCP's revival is very tough (although they are doing the right things)...

    This article details my points (http://bit.ly/1aIIS56)
    Jan 21 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Behold A Pale Horse [View article]
    Thank you. I see. Poor people just do not read attentively.
    Jan 10 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: A Bridge Too Far [View article]
    I find your appreciation of Ullman curious. He certainly is no Lee Iaccoca and he plainly lied to investors before the latest equity raising ... Now he is again hiding the truth and many longs will suffer even more by letting themselves deceived of his "pleased" statement...
    Jan 9 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Behold A Pale Horse [View article]
    Could you please post a link on this? All I was able to find is Buffet saying that as much as he loves JCP "... it is very tough, out there": (seelink to CNBC video):

    http://cnb.cx/KHCrZU#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMjM0N...
    Jan 9 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Behold A Pale Horse [View article]
    Disagree. The article provides quite some substance in addition to crafted style. Please, read it attentively.
    Jan 9 03:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Q4 Guidance: A Massive Overreaction To Making The Quarter [View article]
    If cash flow negative again raising new equity to survive may become not doable.
    Jan 8 12:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why You Should Buy J.C. Penney [View article]
    See below the outlook reaffirmed by JCP:

    "The Company's current outlook for the fourth quarter of 2013 is as follows:
    -Comparable store sales and gross margin are expected to improve sequentially and year over year;
    -SG&A expenses are expected to be below last year's levels;
    -Depreciation and amortization is expected to be approximately $165 million;
    -Interest expense is expected to be in line with third quarter;
    -Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $175 million in the fourth quarter including accrued and unpaid expenditures and approximately $300 million for fiscal 2014;
    -Inventory is expected to be approximately $2.85 billion at year end;
    -Total available liquidity is expected to be in excess of $2 billion at year end."

    Mr Ullman has made the company buyback stock at $31/share. Even if right then life was already difficult for JCP. So his capital allocation skills and promises are what they are, can't help to notice. Though, he will make good on the promise this time. Who doubts it?
    Jan 8 09:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Textura slips, Citron issues second salvo citing "fraudulent disclosures," opex issues [View news story]
    It would be appropriate for SEC to check out TXTR. That would not be helpful for the management though. It would just prove Citron's points.
    Jan 8 07:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JCP: What To Look For In 2014 [View article]
    Per quarter (after 10% increase in sales):
    - $100m interest payments matched by $400m operating loss.
    - $161m in depreciation matched by $260m average capex (TTM)

    Assuming SSS will continue, despite the fierce competition in the space, JCP may be able to raise again capital. But current valuation reflects hope (business improvement, short squeeze) more than anything else.
    Jan 2 06:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is J.C. Penney Hiding Something? [View article]
    Maybe. Still reward would be stellar for a successful turnaround. I do not see this "diversification" as a signal of great trust in the company he leads.
    Dec 26 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is J.C. Penney Hiding Something? [View article]
    J.C. Penney CEO M. Ullman bought 7,000 shares of Starbucks on 12/13/2013. If JCP was on the brink of a successful turnaround would it not have made sense for him to put half a million in JCP rather than SBUX?
    Dec 26 05:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Lining On The Horizon For J.C. Penney Company, But Will It Last? [View article]
    What is the $ 898 billion mentioned by the article?... Operating Cash flow latest Q was minus $737 million... If JCP keeps that kind of "silver lining performance" it will be out of cash within one year. Very hard for them to make it given the competitive environment.
    Dec 24 03:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Next Tesla [View article]
    All that burnt cash will not get JCP on fire? They paid $255 mln in interest expense for last 9m of which $99m during the last quarter alone (annualized from here it goes to $400m/annum at best). That is quite a burden considering operating losses of $400m during the last Q. They fight a very uphill, extremely competitive war. Competition is fierce in JCP's turf.

    No resemblance with Tesla but a turnaround whose likelihood to go South is greater than the odds of a successful journey.
    Dec 24 01:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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