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Emerging Market Skeptic

 
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  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    FPAFY looks like its almost back to where it started the year and yea, its probably foreign outflows plus whatever is happening in Indonesia as its businesses or investments are probably pretty sound (Indofoods is a good business in and of itself if you like mee goreng!). A daily trading average of 18k shares does not look too bad - if you are willing and able to invest in OTC stocks (Note: I don't think I can with my discount broker).
    Jul 11, 2013. 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    "Why perception of PH corruption decreased under PNoy" http://bit.ly/12CUthN

    "A lack of political scandals and the replacement of top government officials linked to former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo are just some of the reasons why more Filipinos believe corruption has decreased, however slightly, under President Benigno Aquino III, a watchdog group said."
    Jul 10, 2013. 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    Worth noting:

    Philippine Stocks Enter Bear Market as Foreign Outflows Surge
    http://bloom.bg/14UgqfW

    “The slump was caused by expectations the U.S. will taper monetary stimulus and not by a deterioration in the Philippine economic and corporate outlook,” Jerome Gonzalez, who helps manage $230 million at Philequity Management Inc., said by phone today. “This has opened a good window to come in and start buying in tranches. Our fundamentals remain intact.”
    Jun 24, 2013. 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    Please read more closely: "As of the end of the first week of June..." according to Google Finance, which NOW has the EPHE down 3.1% as of June 22nd. So all gains for the year disappeared over the last week+ as investors exit emerging markets.

    If you wish to look at lots of PH data, please go to the BSP website at http://www.bsp.gov.ph or the NSCB site at http://www.nscb.gov.ph as they have just about everything... :)
    Jun 22, 2013. 05:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    I think they spent $2 billion to extend the line just two stations to the airport. You know there used to be train tracks across the Bay Bridge when they built it? They got ripped up and replaced by car lanes. So when they built BART, they had to tunnel under the bay which probably cost a fortune even in the 70s or whenever they did it...
    Jun 14, 2013. 03:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    Because, unless you live in an older compact city on the east coast, you really can't get around without one plus govt regs encouraged urban sprawl when the car was developed. Trains only work in China and Europe where its more densely populated or big cities are close together... You can always buy a cheap used car though. Its just that too many Americans want a new and expensive one bought on borrowed money... Manila traffic is much worst than anything in the USA as car plans from employers tend to be a standard benefit for many managers and professionals...
    Jun 14, 2013. 03:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    I have a friend in the PH who is the son of a general. He complained to me once that the Philippine National Police (PNP) kids get to go to fancy private schools and have all the latest gadgets while military kids like him attend public schools and go to the University of the Philippines - if they are smart enough to get in... So at least the military is reasonably honest (the defense budget is probably so low, there is nothing to steal!)

    Ironically, most of the shoe collection was ruined in the bad typhoon that hit a few years ago and flooded most of metro Manila along with the museum they were stored in.
    Jun 13, 2013. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    In the USA, their unions get them what they want as no politician will dare oppose a police union or refuse contributions from one :)
    Jun 13, 2013. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    Actually the Philippines is rich in natural resources as its the ring of fire, but they have thrown up obstacles (or rather the Church, nationalists and others) to ensure they stay in the ground while Filipino mining professionals have mostly left the country. Some of the foreign investment in electronics that left the PH for cheaper China and is now leaving expensive China has come back, but Philippine labor laws make the country's labor too expensive (and some investment incentive policies have been erratic in the past) - which is rather ironic given the poverty levels there... So mfg goes to Thailand, Vietnam and even Indonesia, Cambodia or Penang in Malaysia. Tourism and infra projects to facilitate them would help, but there is not much to see or do in the PH compared to the rest of SE Asia e.g. no Angkor Watt or something really unique.

    See my last article: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 13, 2013. 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Philippines: More 2 Steps Forward And 1 Step Back? [View article]
    Yea, the lifestyle in the PH if you have $ is wonderful to the point where a Filipino friend once told me that soon you will see just expats/foreigners at the Greenbelt Mall and no Filipinos because they have all left the country!

    Someone in Cambodia made the same comment to me about traffic tickets. A relative in CA was pulled over on a lonely stretch of highway in the central valley doing 80 mph+ (no danger to anyone). By the time she was done taking time off work to visit a judge, attend a day of traffic school and pay fines, it cost her easily $1k or more in fees, loss wages etc. Luckily she has a job that pays decent wages but is still so fed up with the state that she's moving to the mid west. Imagine if she was a minimum wage person bagging groceries at Wal-Mart? There goes the savings. In Cambodia, $1 or $2 takes care of a traffic violation then and there...
    Jun 12, 2013. 11:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    Deutsch Bank also has a massive backoffice presence in the PH - so they have a reason to be bullish!
    Oct 30, 2012. 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    No - corruption was democratized! Instead of the Rolex 12 in Marcos' inner circle, it became nearly everyone at all levels of the gov't!
    Oct 30, 2012. 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    Fluctuating F/X is another problem: I remember when the peso was at the 55 level and then it managed to hit the high 30s before going back into the low 40s - that along with the housing bust in the USA pretty much destroyed the furniture industry. The currency appreciation also hit many of the small call center / BPO players as well (no doubt putting a few of them out of business) and don't forget all the American retirees living there...
    Oct 30, 2012. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    I have also been surprised by just how far along and more prosperous Indonesia seems to be. Jakarta even seems cleaner, less poor (lots of motorcyles), less crowded, safer and more efficient (the organized bus system) than Manila. Of course, I was there during Ramadan...
    Oct 30, 2012. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Damaged Culture' No More? An Investing-In-The-Philippines Reality Check [View article]
    The Chinese and Koreans work harder than everyone else (and they know how to be "flexible" when it comes to the govt) - not many westerners are willing to put in 12-14+ hour days 7 days a week to run a business... I was in CDO in Mindanao a few years ago and the clothing market in front of the main market was all Korean (I think) shopkeepers sitting on stools with the k-pop blaring away. 80% of the businesses in the PH are probably owned by ethnic Chinese, the rest will be owned by Koreans soon (and don't forget the Indian money lenders and their 5-6 schemes...)
    Oct 30, 2012. 03:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
More on EPHE by Emerging Market Skeptic
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