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With hedge fund manager, CNBC regular and long-time veteran of the Russian markets Tim Seymour at the helm, Emerging Money (http://www.emergingmoney.com) provides education, trading analysis and comprehensive views of emerging markets around the world. As economies in the BRIC group and beyond... More
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  • Vale debuts in Hong Kong

    Listing in China is an obvious fit for Brazilian mining giant Vale, which ships massive amounts of iron ore to Chinese customers every year. The Hong Kong shares are hot.

    So-called HDRs or Hong Kong Depositary Receipts — the Chinese equivalent of ADRs — closed their first trading day at a slight but significant 0.7% premium to their U.S.-traded counterparts, or 1.4% over what they were worth in Vale’s native Brazil.

    VALE (quote) officers like the retail investment climate in Hong Kong. And since the company does half of its sales in Asia, establishing a way to trade it in the Asian time zone makes great sense.

    The new offer in Hong Kong does not raise new funds or dilute other investors elsewhere. Since iron rivals RIO (quote) and BHP (quote) are traded in Australia, they at least do not have the time zone problem.

    Meanwhile, VALE continues to talk up its forecasts on copper demand growth, which could lead analysts to start re-rating their stock price targets. Both Deutsche Bank and Barclays have come out with repeat “buy” recommendations on the stock in the last week.

    If copper strengthens to $4 a pound over the foreseeable future, VALE looks great. And meanwhile, iron ore inventories remain tight, which should be a high margin driver — wherever the stock trades.

     

     

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Dec 08 9:24 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Guess the top managers' favorite markets

    If you think Brazil is poised to leap ahead of the rest of the BRIC next year, you may be in good company, but when it comes to markets like China, the cheers are a lot less enthusiastic.

    According to the latest UBS survey of top fund managers, 48% say Brazil will deliver the best performance in Latin America, Europe, the Middle East or Africa next year -- but 33% are going with the emerging consensus and saying they think Russia will win the prize.

    As to what the key to buying Russia will be next year, 49% say corporate governance improvement is the answer. But 24% would be happy to see higher oil prices as their trigger to get more bullish on Moscow.

    On the other side of the trade, when asked what the biggest source of potential downside for Brazil will be in 2011, 37% of these money managers say rising state participation in the market, while 27% simply think that the Bovespa is too expensive whenever it gets north of a P/E of about 15.

    And as to the best off-the-beaten-track market next year, 32% of the managers like Argentina and 24% like Saudi Arabia. Argentina has plenty of ways to trade, but as for Saudi Arabia, you might have a hard time of it.

    Beyond the stock markets, the UBS poll discovered that managers are mixed on currencies, with 37% expecting the real to perform best next year while 28% favor the ruble. And in commodities, 36% say oil will do best, followed by 29% for gold and 18% for copper

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Dec 06 4:55 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Oligarchs will pay for the World Cup
     Vladimir Putin is already suggesting that Russia's industrial magnates like Roman Abramovich should help with the cost of getting the country ready for the 2018 World Cup.

    As Putin notes, Abramovich, the fourth-richest Russian best known for owning the English Chelsea football club, has "plenty of money" and so can "dip into his pocket" for part of the estimated $50 billion the country will pay to build stadiums, upgrade its infrastructure and generally prepare to host the global soccer tournament.

    Expect all the oligarchs getting requests to "do their part" to get the country ready, but as soccer oligarch, Abramovich will probably be pushed hardest in the inner circles.

    With FIFA already worried about whether Russia's airports will be able to handle the traffic, this could transform the country over the next decade. Throw in the 2014 Olympics the country is throwing in Sochi, and it means great opportunities ahead for Russian construction and steel in particular.

    As it happens, Abramovich controls Evraz, one of the Russian steel giants that U.S. investors cannot trade in ADR form. But you can trade Mechel (MTLquote), and it looks like even Lukoil (LUKOYquote) is getting into the act by committing to build a stadium. Interesting times.



    Disclosure: no position
    Dec 03 10:36 AM | Link | Comment!
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