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With hedge fund manager, CNBC regular and long-time veteran of the Russian markets Tim Seymour at the helm, Emerging Money (http://www.emergingmoney.com) provides education, trading analysis and comprehensive views of emerging markets around the world. As economies in the BRIC group and beyond... More
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  • Wikileaks reveals weak Falklands oil
     The once-secret diplomatic cables currently making the rounds have plenty to tell investors as well as global political analysts. For example, count out the Falklands as the next oil war.

    Documents that Wikileaks leaked recently show that according to ExxonMobil (XOMquote) there simply is not enough oil in the disputed Falkland Islands to profitably exploit, much less fight over.

    If true, it would explain why Royal Dutch Shell (RYDAFquote) gave up on the Falklands back in the late 1990s.

    However, recent drilling by independent names like Britain's Desire Petroleum (DSPMFquote and Rockhopper Exploration (RCKHFquote) has delivered what those companies at least consider encouraging results.

    So far, interest from Argentine oil companies has been limited. Should massive deposits of petroleum -- onshore or, more likely, in the Falklands' big coastal zone -- be found, it could easily highlight the disputed ownership of this territory and possibly even rigger another Argentine-Briish turf war down in the South Atlantic.

    But while Argentine interests like YPF (quote) -- or parent company Repsol (REPquote) -- have been very quiet lately when it comes to the Falklands, they have also been building up their offshore expertise.

    If assets actually exist down there, these companies are in much better position to protect what they may see as thei fair due.



    Disclosure: no positions
    Dec 03 10:07 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Russia's got the World Cup

    Two great things happened to the Russian economy this week: oil cracked above $87 a barrel and yes, the country has won its bid to host the 2018 World Cup football series.

    The RTS index is up a fairly stunning 4.7% in dollar terms for the first four days of this week, boosted by the big names in the energy patch like Gazprom (OGZPYquote) but also the consumer sector stories.

    Obviously, Wimm-Bill-Dan (WBDquote), which is getting bought out at a 35% premium by Pepsi (PEPquote) is one of the stars.

    The economic impact of the World Cup -- coupled with the 2014 Olympics going to Sochi -- should be quite big. You can already see it playing out in the infrastructure stocks, which means the steel group could benefit. Good news for names like Mechel (MTL,quote).

    People were looking for a good reason to buy Russia anyway, and this should be a really great one. Buy steel names like MTL. Buy construction and fast food if you can get access. Buy OGZPY just because it is the giant in this market.

    And on the consumer side, take another look at CTCM (quote), MBT (quote), CEDC (quote), Carlsberg (CGBWFquote), the thinly traded Aeroflot (AERZFquote), Turkish brewer Efes (AEBZYquote).

    Or throw it all together as RSX (quote):

     

    Disclosure: no positions
    Dec 02 11:03 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Emerging markets week in review

    Global market activity was light this week due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, but risk factors from Ireland to Korea kept many traders glued to their screens all the same.

    Brazilian  shares were punished by the sudden pullback in the world’s emerging markets, falling 3.7%. Once again, traders in Brasilia seemed content to react to macro developments elsewhere while waiting for the incoming Dilma Rousseff administration to provide direction on how Brazilian monetary policy will work in the new year.

    Russian  shares were flat as new flows into Moscow balanced out a worldwide move away from risk in all its forms. Russia is emerging as a new darling of emerging markets traders . . . or at least one of the least risky of the BRIC quartet at the moment.

    Indian  stocks fell 2.3%. The threat of the Chinese food inflation story playing out on the other side of the Himalayas did little to encourage new money into the Mumbai market. Instead, given the recent record-breaking rally in India, traders were inclined to take a bit of cash off the table and wait for global risk factors to resolve.

    Chinese  markets ended the week flat, but are still down 8.7% from their recent peaks. The absence of a formal anti-inflationary campaign from Beijing made traders more nervous, if anything: a quick move would be easy to adjust to and move on, but the longer the markets dread a set of new lending curbs, price controls or even another surprise interest rate hike, the more time Chinese stocks have to drift. 

    Disclosure: no positions
    Nov 27 5:33 PM | Link | Comment!
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