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Emmanuel Daugeras

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  • American Realty Capital - Enough Already, Thoughts From A Shareholder [View article]
    Excellent article. Right to the point.
    Nov 5, 2014. 03:21 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Many Ponzi-Like MLP Blow-Ups To Follow [View article]
    What is the definition of a Ponzi Scheme ? Paying cash to old shareholders with the money of the new shareholders. Well, many MLPs indeed sell shares and pay dividends. Expanding the shares outstanding to pay dividends makes the dividend yield less attractive in reality than it looks, but it is not a fraud.
    May be one way to value MLPs would be to take into account the % of shares outstanding increase and deflate the dividend yield by the same amount to value only the real "net yield".
    Jul 5, 2013. 10:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fourth Scenario For When Should I Transition From Capital Gain Investing To Dividend Growth Investing? [View article]
    Great article. Indeed, as Lynch would say: its better to own a stock with a P/E ratio growing at 20% a year than a stock with a P/E of 6 growing at 6% a year....
    However, the key question is to be able to pick those very stocks that will keep growing.
    To what extend is there a hindsight bias in your growth stock pick ?
    What about the numerous fast growers 20 years ago that went bust ?
    Do you have a way to pick the right ones ?
    Sep 29, 2012. 01:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Corning: Confusion Creates Buying Opportunity For This Unloved Equity [View article]
    Great article. I find Corning quite undervalued as well.
    Corning as a stock and as a business displays some of the main features that statistically drive long term capital appreciation:
    -Low PER
    -High return on equity/invested capital
    -Shares buybacks
    -Good dividend yields+dividend hikes
    -Insider buying

    It is probably a game of patience now.

    Long GLW.
    Jan 31, 2012. 05:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan Will Leap Significantly Higher [View article]
    I agree on all the points mentionned by Frank. FCX is an outstanding company.
    However, there is one big risk lingering: the price of copper is at an all time high. Regression to the mean suggests that copper prices have at least a risk of dropping to long term averages as copper stocks pile up in China. In this case, the cash flows of FCX would take a hit.
    That being said, I'm long FCX.
    Apr 11, 2012. 12:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • C&J Energy: America's Cheapest Oil Services Stock [View article]
    Great article. I agree with Tim's analysis, though there are still risks and this is not a free lunch.
    CJES seems quite undervalued at these prices and I feel like the wolf of Tex Avery watching a hot babe walking by..... I loaded the truck on CJES.
    I like as well yesterday's XOM announcements that their production volumes are not as strong as usual, which should increase demand for oil services.

    However, we should stay cool and remember the old word of wisdom: on the stock market, I you haven't found out who's the patsy, YOU might be the patsy.
    There are risks being long CJES:
    -Spot prices for fleets might decline (average spot prices where about $60 per HP per hour 2 years ago and they soared to $300 and $400 last quarter). A return to "normal prices" might happen.
    -CJES has an authorization to issue another 100M shares (2X as many shares as today outstanding) (page 25 of the prospectus) causing a massive dilution to current shareholders. The risk is low at today's low stock prices and as long as the company does not have a stringent need of cash, but the risk may increase if the stock price moves up significantly.
    -Rapid growth entails execution risks: quality control, ability to hire appropriate staff etc...

    That being said, I'm loaded with CJES.
    Feb 1, 2012. 08:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    Good article. I like the attitude to keep one's head cool and act on facts, not emotions.
    I buy the long case for Oil, long term. But the question is that of how long it will take to come back.
    The political unrest in the middle east ist not necessarily a cause for less supplies: the ISIS for instance uses Oil to finance their war. The anarchy actually can dislocate the production discipline and lead to lower prices. But agreed with you, anarchy is not sustainable and Oil prices will eventually move up again.
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: Setting The Record Straight [View article]

    Thanks for the article.

    May I ave a remark ?
    In order to compare ARCP with O or NNN, you need to take the debts into account, as the P/AFFO only gives you the equity side of things.

    Here is an article that details the calculation and compares the metrics of the REITS:

    I agree with you that ARCP is undervalued, but probably by 20% rather than the 70% that you suggest.

    Long ARCP as well.
    Aug 25, 2014. 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Many Ponzi-Like MLP Blow-Ups To Follow [View article]
    Dividend growth investing associated to shares buybacks, high ROE performed well in the past. However, James (whom I thank for his courageous albeit a little extreme article) makes a very legitimate point about the underlying risks of choosing high yield stocks only for high yields in a low interest rates environments. Longer term, Interest rates which are close to 0 today are more likely to increase than to decrease, so there is a risk assymetry in the price of bonds (and assimilated high yielding MLPs). This goes well beyond MLPs and applies to many no-growth high yield stocks.
    Another factor adds to the uncertainty which is the price of the underlying commodity.
    So, regardless of any accounting fraud in LIN, betting on the stock is a bet on the combination of interest rates and commodity prices for your investment horizon.
    Any hint, anyone ? I'd appreciate sensible inputs, setting aside any "blind faith".
    Thanks !
    Jul 5, 2013. 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: There's Certainly A Bull Case [View article]
    I don't understand Intel's valuation either.
    This is really strange to me.
    Oct 2, 2012. 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is GT Advanced Technologies Really A Free Lunch? [View article]
    about GTAT by the CEO:
    Jun 15, 2012. 05:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magic Formula Investing 2011 Year In Review [View article]
    I found this article somewhat interesting. We know that the magic formula can have periods of severe underperformance, which is one of the reasons it is so hard to follow on the long run.
    Dec 30, 2011. 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Too Hot To Handle? [View article]
    Hi David,
    Thanks for your detailed analysis and exposés about KMI, which really looks like an exciting long opportunity.
    Do you have an analysis of the financials of the business model, for us holders of KMI stocks ? What's the ROE on these projects, and how will they be financed ?
    In other words: will the capex that KMI or its subsidiaries will incur require capital increases and to what extend will the new projects increase the FCF or dividends for the existing KMI shareholders ?
    Thanks for your answer.
    Jun 19, 2014. 04:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Company's Hidden Source Of Value [View article]
    Deere seems to be a good company, trading at a fair price. It has short term negatives due to decrease in commodity prices which drives the price down currently.

    Deere has the typical features that Buffet likes:
    -Long history of dividend growth and shares buybacks
    -Reasonnable valuation in terms of multiples
    -High ROE (though low ROTCE) which is the sign of a dominant position/strong moat
    -Room to grow: the growing world population will drive the need for improved agriculture yields/productivity

    Long Deere
    Jun 4, 2014. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Marcato Sends Letter to American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    Thank you Mr. McGuire
    Jun 3, 2014. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment