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Emmanuel Daugeras  

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  • American Realty Capital Properties: Playing Hardball With Corvex [View article]
    Why don't they buy back shares ? Given the low present valuation, it would create more value than dividends.....
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014's Trash Could Be 2015's Treasure [View article]
    Well, given the terrible news of Dec. 24th, it is interesting to notice that the share price did not move. I would have expected it to slump.
    It may mean that we've reached a (temporary) bottom, at least if no more terrible news are published. The stock may be in strong hands now.
    Basically, it all depends on the content of the "cleaned up" reporting. And one can argue that the board is doing the right thing for shareholders on the long run:
    -Cut dividends to preserve equity and reduce the leverage to an acceptable level,
    -Recruit new team
    -Restructure the balance sheet over time and restore confidence.

    There may actually be light at the end of the tunnel, IF the new reporting does not disclose disasters.

    Painfully long but holding strong....
    Dec 27, 2014. 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining, LP And CVR Partners, LP Trading At Significant Discount To CVR Energy, Inc. [View article]
    The market is really pricing for a total collapse of UAN and/or ammonium prices. It may happen because the UAN installed production capacity in the USA apparently increased. I still do not understand the price though.
    Dec 9, 2014. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining, LP And CVR Partners, LP Trading At Significant Discount To CVR Energy, Inc. [View article]
    Anyone understands why UAN is good down so much ? With UAN prices around what UAN's management achieved last quarter, UAN will yield 10% to 13%. The market is pricing a even steeper decline in UAN prices... Not seen since 2006. Or is there a hidden issue with that one ?
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    Good article. I like the attitude to keep one's head cool and act on facts, not emotions.
    I buy the long case for Oil, long term. But the question is that of how long it will take to come back.
    The political unrest in the middle east ist not necessarily a cause for less supplies: the ISIS for instance uses Oil to finance their war. The anarchy actually can dislocate the production discipline and lead to lower prices. But agreed with you, anarchy is not sustainable and Oil prices will eventually move up again.
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 13%-Yielding Memorial Production Partners Still Deserves A Chance [View article]
    MEMP seems to be in an endless downward spiral. However, if we keep the nerves, this should be viewed as an opportunity: the oil reserves remain, and if we re-invest dividends with discipline, we'll get more shares for the upside when oil prices recover. It's hopefully just a question of patience.

    I'm observing the same dynamic in UAN: a high yielding fertilizer business with steady production. The market seems just to dump the stock endlessly. Corn prices are reaching multi-years low and making the assumption of improving prices in the 6 month to 12 months time frame, this should be an opportunity in retrospect.
    Dec 1, 2014. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital - Enough Already, Thoughts From A Shareholder [View article]
    Excellent article. Right to the point.
    Nov 5, 2014. 03:21 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does It Cost To Produce One Barrel Of Oil? [View article]
    Thank you for your interesting article.
    Question: what is included in the depreciations ?
    Only the equipment related depreciations (rigs), or do they include the investments in the oil fields themselves ?
    Thanks for your answer.
    Nov 2, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does It Cost To Produce One Barrel Of Oil? [View article]
    Thank you for this very interesting article.
    Question: what is contained in the "depreciations" ? Is it the depreciation of the equipment only (rigs) or does it include the investment in the fields themselves ?
    Thanks for your answer.
    Nov 2, 2014. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cisco Shares Are Undervalued By 35% [View article]
    The stock is very reasonably valued indeed when we look back at past results. The prospect of growing dividends is attractive as well.
    However, there are probably risks of market disruptions, like Soft Switches, cheap alternatives from China, etc....
    Any idea of the likelihood of those threats ?
    Sep 19, 2014. 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: Setting The Record Straight [View article]

    Thanks for the article.

    May I ave a remark ?
    In order to compare ARCP with O or NNN, you need to take the debts into account, as the P/AFFO only gives you the equity side of things.

    Here is an article that details the calculation and compares the metrics of the REITS:

    I agree with you that ARCP is undervalued, but probably by 20% rather than the 70% that you suggest.

    Long ARCP as well.
    Aug 25, 2014. 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: You Must Strike While The Iron Is Hot [View article]
    David, once again your articles re. growth opportunities is great and enticing. However, in order to understand if this growth will create value for existing shareholders, we really need to understand how the financials of this growth work:

    For instance, when EPB builds a new pipeline for $100M in Capex which generates $10M in annual fees:
    -How are the CAPEX financed ? Cash available at EPB, new Debt, EPB Capital increase ?
    -If new EPB units are created, how do they impact the cash flows to the EPB’s GPs ? Is the issuance of new units dilutive to the existing EPB unit holders and/or EPB’s GPs ?
    -How much of the $10M go to the existing unit holder, to the new unit holders and/or GPs ?

    For you to know: I just asked these questions to KMI's investor relations.

    Does anyone have a good and detailed answer to this question ?

    Thanks for your answers.
    Jun 20, 2014. 04:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Too Hot To Handle? [View article]
    Hi David,
    Thanks for your detailed analysis and exposés about KMI, which really looks like an exciting long opportunity.
    Do you have an analysis of the financials of the business model, for us holders of KMI stocks ? What's the ROE on these projects, and how will they be financed ?
    In other words: will the capex that KMI or its subsidiaries will incur require capital increases and to what extend will the new projects increase the FCF or dividends for the existing KMI shareholders ?
    Thanks for your answer.
    Jun 19, 2014. 04:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Company's Hidden Source Of Value [View article]
    Deere seems to be a good company, trading at a fair price. It has short term negatives due to decrease in commodity prices which drives the price down currently.

    Deere has the typical features that Buffet likes:
    -Long history of dividend growth and shares buybacks
    -Reasonnable valuation in terms of multiples
    -High ROE (though low ROTCE) which is the sign of a dominant position/strong moat
    -Room to grow: the growing world population will drive the need for improved agriculture yields/productivity

    Long Deere
    Jun 4, 2014. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Marcato Sends Letter to American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    Thank you Mr. McGuire
    Jun 3, 2014. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment