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Emmet Kodesh

 
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  • What The Recently Announced Reverse Split In GDXJ Means For Shareholders [View article]
    The fundamentals for PMs are strong and have strengthened but if the past 4 months have taught anything it is that fundamentals do not govern this sector, at least at this point in history. However, in my archive I discuss the many constructive, mid-long term positives for the PM sector. Be patient unless your need for cash is urgent: avoid locking in a loss at these prices. Note that in the next few weeks the latest low-ball 'estimate' from GS may create more pain. Those with adequate income stream could add at current or lower levels to phys metal instruments (e.g. PSLV) and miners with low or no debt (MUX) but modest buys are better given volatility and action by "strong hands."
    Jun 25 10:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Economic Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
    No, fishfryer, everything is too personalized in politics. Indeed, Bernanke is little more than a spokesman, focal point for Qs & crit and as he said, a "deputy." The president is speech-reader-in-chief and more hollow each term. A "controlling oligarchy" (Huxley's term) runs the show.
    The main points Kaminis makes here are good but there is nothing new though it is important data. I have been writing for two months about the hollow and fragile basis of the housing recovery based largely on large firms investment buying of rental properties 51% of which remain vacant; about declining applications for mortgages, etc. If they stop QE it will crush the housing markets as they already crushed emerging markets that depend on borrowing and, if continued, cripple the economy's engine, consumer spending. Edinvestor, yes, as von Mises noted succinctly, "unlimited credit [debt] expansion will result in depression" when it is withdrawn or later after its unsustainable bubbles pop.
    welcome all to review my archive and kudos to markos.
    Jun 25 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bursting Asset Bubbles In Equities And Bonds Boost PM Sector Values [View article]
    So true, Ken: sad but true. That is a large joker in this era's deck. Thanks for reading.
    Jun 25 02:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bursting Asset Bubbles In Equities And Bonds Boost PM Sector Values [View article]
    Thanks, Jeremy. The valuations indeed are very compelling because of the macro situation and fundamentals. But note that major players like GS can move, make or break markets as seen in April. FNV is a fine company with a good record and KGC is perhaps the most under priced of significant mid-tier producers. We are amidst a major risk-off, flight to cash period and strong value in this irrationally beaten down sector is better than the still pumped up major indices. Still, unless you have a solid income stream I would limit allocation to the sector to the 12 -20% range. I wrote at some length on ABX above: note their strong bounce back off their daily low. best wishes & good fortune.....
    Jun 24 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Shares May Still Collapse [View article]
    Haleiwahu and jargon you make the key points. My article today looks at the fiscal-economic context for the best buying opportunities. It also is true that fundamentals do not drive pm prices though the effect of shortages from capex cutbacks and shut downs will kick-in. Check the article and take care.
    Jun 24 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are Reasonable Gold Market Expectations? [View article]
    Key pt correct: gaming has destroyed fundamentals. One thing is certain: a major wealth consolidation event is accelerating. First they have destroyed fixed income investors, now they are preparing to crash equities by ambiguous and disingenuous comments on 'qe', i.e. debt creation. Do check my archive. While gold may decline further, the hit squad hasn't yet expended its ammo and the 20, 50 and 200 day MA's are negative stacked, it is a strong value buy.
    Note that nearly ALL precious metal miners surged friday afternoon, mux up 9.14%. Do check my archive...
    Jun 24 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are Reasonable Gold Market Expectations? [View article]
    They are doing that by selling down their T-bills: only 2 years ago they owned about $3 trillion now it's down to $1.4. Japanese also selling off our treasuries. Result: without continued and perhaps increased QE (debt creation), bond prices would collapse and the rising yields will snuff the fledgling housing 'recovery' as already has begun to occur.
    Please see my archive. This fellow's conclusions are good but the analysis, imho, is superficial and nothing new.
    Jun 24 01:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Out Of Gold And Silver As Prices Continue To Plunge, Oil Falls Back After False Breakout [View article]
    Lost in the sea of charts and selective view of Fed's ambiguous remarks (of which there were plenty) was that QE also could be increased this year. The fact is that very few people, none here know what the Fed will choose to do. The best argument given this continuing uncertainty is to increase cash positions after the next bounce. Readers could see my archive for specific discussion of the interface of economy, markets and PM sector. Thanks.
    Jun 22 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Highly Profitable Silver Companies That Investors Should Consider [View article]
    AG is a good company (I have written a focus on it) but limiting to Mexico, though they tout it is not necessarily a plus: it depends on the jurisdiction, each Mexican state is quite different. All in all it is a medium, not great, not bad, jurisdiction / Frazer. Agreed and as I wrote, their strategy re property acquisition and, especially, local management and local enhancement is prudent and should pay off. On SLW, they pay their dividend monthly which is nice and are not really at risk re Pascua L because they have production guarantees from other ABX silver sites in case of PL delays.
    Jun 19 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seek Value As Sovereigns Dump T-Bills On Overbought Markets [View article]
    Good points wolfosc: airlines and aerospace are de facto Dc agencies
    This may support them, on taxpayer backs when unmerited. UTX is better. FCX and RIO are overlooked diversified and good dividend paying plays. Despite its acquisitions in oil & gas, FCX still is cash plus & today, the govt Indonesia confimed my view that mining at Grasberg soon will resume, the open pit by week's end. --- Thanks for reading.
    Jun 18 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seek Value As Sovereigns Dump T-Bills On Overbought Markets [View article]
    TRQ is mentioned in the paragraph on RIO above. If you are interested, my archive has several articles on TRQ, RIO and politics in mongolia. Energex, ABX in my view is a strong value buy now. See my archive for several articles discussing ABX and its various sites in Chile, Dominican, etc. Jason and RHD, many thanks.
    Jun 17 07:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If The Fed Tapers, It Risks Triggering A Stock Market Avalanche - Here's Why [View article]
    Dave, good article uncovering the basics. You support the main pts I've been discussing in articles for some months now. Appreciate your digging and sound advice. The main joker is that all the kinds of gaming the system pas produced distortions that defy fundamentals.
    It seems like prep for an enormous wealth consolidation event. BTW: no one here knows what the Fed will do as opposed to what they, and others say they will or may or should do. That is another joker. They will act based on discussions with their peer groups.
    Jun 17 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fears On Freeport-McMoRan Unwarranted: Big Upside Potential Remains [View article]
    Bob, thanks for your thoughtful comments. There indeed are many problems in Indonesia most of which long pre-dated the arrival of Europeans there much less FCX. Still, it does affect all major concerns out in the field there. The govt statements I read, several quoted and linked here is that they do not want FCX to leave or scale back. Yes, golfer there are many problems in the industry and sector. My piece on "NGOs thwart Miners" are just one aspect of an interesting global impoverishment drive often cloaked as "ecological" concerns, etc. These issues are real but so are the products that giants like FCX and RIO provide. In the downturn that almost surely is coming, diversified giants like they are will best weather the storms. Let's hope for good things.
    Jun 16 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
    It is easy to pick on one professional. Schiff is not perfect, --- neither is the writer. But many professionals with decades of experience managing fund groups and funds (John Hathaway, Senior Managing Director of the Tocqueville Fund Group, Robert Fitzwilson of the Portola Group, Michael Pento and many others) share the basics of Schiff's views. One reason that inflation is masked (most of us are glad it is) is that QE is thwarting the deflationary forces in the economy which are strong, e.g. PMI industrials declining trend for 4 years and now in contraction. Also, you cannot discuss PM prices meaningfully w/out acknowledging the artificial action in comex (CBOE recently was fined by SEC on a similar issue, shorting). Dr. Philippa Malmgren has spoken bluntly on this recently and she belongs to the most prestigious and influential policy groups.
    Jun 14 11:48 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patience On Precious Metals Sector Will Be Rewarded: Context For Trading [View article]
    Those concerned about action in the PM sector should re-read the comments by Dr. Malmgren above, read the recent discussions by Robert Fitzwilson of the Portola Group (not a PM fund), discussions of the economy and PM sector by John Hathaway, Senior Managing Dr of the Tocqueville group of funds and, among others, by exploration geologist Dr. Keith Barron, in the profession for 30 years.
    Also note that I repeatedly have urged participating in the equity indices via S&P (VOO) which is up about 11% YTD, Consumer Staples (+18.3 ytd) etc. Thanks & good fortune to all. Note that my most recent piece on economic outlook is supported even more emphatically by the experienced investment professionals above.
    Jun 13 11:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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