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  • SolarCity - Cracking The Code Of Commercial Solar [View article]
    The big problems with commercial is 3 fold:
    1) rates are 35% lower than residential.
    2) Demand charges can be 50% of commercial bills - the volumetric charge then is about 4-6 cents per KWH - whereas with blocked tiered residential tariffs can be 15+ cents per kwh
    3) Most commercial facilities are leased - so the electric cost is a pass thru for the actual owner of the building.

    The main positive for commercial are the large flat, or low sloped roofs - perfect and easy to install solar - so the cost to install is cheap - less then $2 a watt. Also the shading alone from the panels can reduce HVAC cost by 25%...
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dark Side Of The Sun: Solar Power And Global Electronic Waste [View article]
    I disagree - the author is obviously attacking solar - this is the title:


    Dark Side Of The Sun: Solar Power And Global Electronic Waste
    Apr 21, 2015. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dark Side Of The Sun: Solar Power And Global Electronic Waste [View article]
    This is a FSLR issue only - not solar! What % of solar PV installed world wide uses CdTe? maybe 5% or less?

    Very disingenuous article IMHO...
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Likely The Best Bet In The Solar Industry [View article]
    Well done article, with lots of research. I do prefer some of the Si module makers such as TSL, JKS, JASO due to the cost reduction roadmap of the technology + mass manufacturing, and the much higher efficiency levels.. Most Si based firms are moving from the standard 250 watt panels to the 300 watt area 60 cell modules. This lower cost per watt will also lower the BOS costs as well.

    Now from a long term technology point of view Thin film muti junction type system could have a better roadmap - but to me the roadmap is decades not years...

    Also CdTe is a bit nasty - another article on FSLR just came out today - fear mongering if you ask me, but.....

    I do like FLSR, but I feel it is now fully valued....
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Lawsuit Against SRP Has Large Implications [View article]
    This will big an important case, but innovation and free markets will prevail IMHO. Some keys to consider:
    1) if the solar array is properly sized - only a smaller % is fed back to the grid - 20-35%. Your premise will use most of the array's production. So you don't need to size your battery to be "off-grid" - just not need net-metering.
    2) With cheaper and cheaper batteries and maybe even combined DC storage in the inverter - to handle the net-metering issue the extra cost will be fairly small.
    3) Since the installed cost of solar is still falling as well, the combined cost of solar + some storage will be very attractive.

    What this may do is allow homeowners to do, is to install solar and not even notify the utility....
    Apr 7, 2015. 04:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Major Inflection Point Is Coming For Crude Oil... But It's Not Here Yet [View article]
    Good read. In Jan. I wrote an article on my timing of the turn for oil pricing:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 12, 2015. 07:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swift Energy: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly [View article]
    Sfy's debt to equity is about 100 which is about average for smaller players. But the percentage will rise as their assets are re-valued due to lower oil and gas prices...
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignoring Solar Fundamentals: First Solar, Inc. [View article]
    Actually, lower oil is positive for the solar industry. read my SA article on the subject:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I learned something new today, and may drill down deeper into this issue if I have some time.
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    In the short term - the rest of 2015 - I would think the lenders will work with oil and gas firms like PWE. The reason is that if you are a lender - and you push firms into restructuring - how does that help you make money in the future? No one would do business with you, since your reputation would be damaged.
    Feb 10, 2015. 07:53 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Rig Count And Energy Prices, Part 1: 2015 Oil Price Range $40-75 [View article]
    Nice graph. looks like the price of oil has already started to move up - well before my prediction of May/June. We could have another drop back down to 45 ish.....
    Feb 8, 2015. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Production Could Plunge In A Few Weeks [View instapost]
    Nice graph. Production will decrease - the only question is when....

    I think the oil price will turn up, before production goes down. My prediction in my rig articles is that price will rebound starting in the may.June time frame....
    Feb 8, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Rig Count And Energy Prices, Part 2: 2015 Natural Gas Price Range $2.5-$4.5 [View article]
    US rig count update: -90 reported today, and the running 4 week total of -268 - a record I believe. Also read up on comments from HP the rig company. HP thinks a 50% reduction in rigs is possible this year - which is my estimate as well. This would be a similar drop we saw in 2008/2009 - pricing will follow the 2009 event IMHO.
    Jan 30, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Rig Count And Energy Prices, Part 2: 2015 Natural Gas Price Range $2.5-$4.5 [View article]
    I like MEMP quite a bit due the their hedge book. I do think NG has more long term potential than oil as well. AREX and REXX are speculative and a bit risky - but upside is huge if energy prices recover as I think they will....
    Jan 30, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Economics: Pricing Model For 2014 - 2017 [View article]
    NGA;
    My best guestimate was for a 2015 low of about $2.5 HH price - looks like we may go lower...

    NG prices will rise up above $4 this year, but it will take until late summer, early fall for this change in price direction to be confirmed IMHO. NG storage is still below average, but NG production is soo huge - recently 12% increase YOY, the market will have to see the YOY numbers start to fall - demand will increase for the reasons you state - but can't absorbs 10%+ supply increases...
    Jan 30, 2015. 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
119 Comments
141 Likes