Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Equitable Research  

View Equitable Research's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Look At Peabody Energy's First-Quarter Results [View article]
    There seems to still be too much retail optimism.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    LOL rkw29 - I haven't been listening to the call but I don't doubt that explanation at all!
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valmie Resources: Two Guys, One Drone And A 150M Market Cap [View article]
    Obviously the thesis is right. Everything you said makes total sense. I wrote an article (http://bit.ly/R7JZbD) a year ago about a similar company and it has since dropped 99% from $37 to $0.46 today. But the problem is as groningentrading posted its not really actionable in any meaningful way. Sure you can MAYBE scour for a few shorts at IB (and the reason I could never get short) is that it is virtually unshortable. With that said, I enjoyed the article and love seeing scams like this exposed.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    AH traders can't make up their minds here. Initial reaction $420 then sold right off to $380 then back to near $420 again.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At Peabody Energy's First-Quarter Results [View article]
    At $2 I will buy. No reason to think that it wont get there when every other coal company has. I think there will be a play here and the coal contrarian/cyclical story will play out but its still too early to excited about Peabody here. Much more can go wrong given the high leverage and plummeting coal (and NG) prices. Thanks for the earnings synopsis.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Support.com Is The Closest You Get To An Internet Of Things Freeroll [View article]
    Just saw this question - I think the legacy business alone is a good one. I think it is worth $3. Or a little less than 1x sales. I really put no value on Nexus, simply describing it as a freeroll. We will get Nexus details on April 29 and be able to see the progress. I confirmed that with the company. Support.com also announced 2 significant Nexus wins yesterday. Anything will move the needle on it and drive this higher. I can even see them spinning off Nexus as an IPO and then licensing back the technology to the parent. That will create a ton of shareholder value but the company needs to get some traction first. Today's Comcast announcement removes a major overhang on the sales forecast for the legacy business. I'm very positive going in to earnings.
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Comcast dropping TWC merger plans [View news story]
    Side effect: Positive for Support.com (SPRT). See my StockTalk for an explanation why ---> http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Entries For Seeking Alpha's Contrarian Idea Contest [View article]
    Evan - When submitting your article put a note in the "comments to editors" for Daniel that you would like to submit to the contest.
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tremor Video: Significant Improvement In Gross Margins And Operating Leverage Provide Clear Visibility To Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Even with what I said about YuMe, I still think it offers value at its current price. I think TUBE and RUBI are significantly overpriced but they trade for valuations that are over 10x where Tremor Video trades. I don't think there is a whole lot of difference between any of these companies despite what fancy corporate presentations say. They all lose money. Tremor Video is growing about as fast as TubeMogul. There are bear arguments for both. TubeMogul is a serious hype machine so the public believes it is so much better and worthy of a 10x higher valuation. I don't pay for hype. YuMe on the other hand still has negative sentiment. Its just that Tremor Video's sentiment is that much worse. So I expect Tremor Video to rise to YuMe's valuation at least and TUBE and RUBI to contract.
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tremor Video: Significant Improvement In Gross Margins And Operating Leverage Provide Clear Visibility To Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Things change really quick in ad tech and I'm constantly reassessing the situation. Remember that I am making choices as an investor, so value is what is paramount and YuMe is still despite being weaker valued at double Tremor Video. YuMe's inability to capitalize on programmatic is very disappointing. As mentioned in the article Tremor Video is now 14% programmatic and YuMe isn't even 1%. By the end of 2015 I expect Tremor Video to be at 25% programmatic perhaps higher and YuMe still to be below 1%. I certainly had high expectations for YuMe but further research has caused me to re-evaluate that opinion. I always felt that YuMe's India R&D gave it a competitive advantage where it could explain the lack of spending but further research led me to conclude that isn't accurate.
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tremor Video: Significant Improvement In Gross Margins And Operating Leverage Provide Clear Visibility To Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    I don't think it needs to be a real sustainable business for the shares to double or triple from here. Just needs to look like it can be one. If it becomes one you are looking at $20+ but most of us will be long gone by then as it becomes more fairly valued. Certainly with the vast improvement in metrics - since November - it looks much much better. I am very encouraged following the Q1 results in February and the Varick win. Both are strong positive indicators. I bought following that and I'm looking for about $5 this time around. Which is in-line with YuMe's valuation which is a much weaker company in terms of technology, programmatic and competitive position.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vapor: Shifting Into A Retail Opportunity [View article]
    Vapor Corp. is completely hopeless. So is Vaporin. Together they will do nothing. This business is super competitive with much stronger and smarter competitors who are already well established. There is literally no chance that Vapor Corp. will succeed here.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Chris Lau, Author Of 'Value Stocks For DIY Investors' [View article]
    Chris Lau - I have this image of you like the psycho in Prisoners who had drawings all over his wall. But I bet in your room (or house if you don't live with your parents) it is quotes from others that just eat away at you so you follow them feverishly until that day when you can cite one publicly in an attempt to discredit the person. I bet your demeanor isn't helping you sell subscriptions. It would certainly turn me off as a customer.
    Apr 22, 2015. 07:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tremor Video: Significant Improvement In Gross Margins And Operating Leverage Provide Clear Visibility To Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    An inkling of profitability being around the corner will take this stock to at least YuMe's valuation which would mean $4 per share (0.6x-0.7x revs). Certainly the tech and prospects are superior to YuMe. The downside is largely baked in given the $78M in cash and no debt or even significant liabilities. Above cash there is another $10M in working capital benefit. So I can't see it getting mich cheaper. The big spending is largely complete. The numbers will start to look better especially in the back half of this year. So near-term a 50%-100% gain is achievable based on sentiment shift alone. If the numbers materialize this can easily return back to its IPO price valuation of $10, but that is longer term.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tremor Video: Significant Improvement In Gross Margins And Operating Leverage Provide Clear Visibility To Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    Looks like you sold at the bottom Tal. Your synopsis of a company with $78M in cash and no about to turn profitable "bleeding to death" is overly bearish.

    As far as "cigar butts", Buffet famously said he can make 50% returns every year if he wasn't limited by the size of his AUM. Certainly in a case like Tremor even without a long term vision it is easy to see that one little change in sentiment can move the stock quickly 50%-100% higher before anybody noticing. Sentiment is SO bad right now.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,076 Comments
1,426 Likes