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  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    Coal is definitely super negative but CLD sentiment is still relatively positive versus the other US players.
    Jun 15, 2015. 11:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    If they buy back the debt at market they will be the first coal company to ever do so. I just don't see it happening. A 15 cent discount isn't really that enticing for them at this stage when they have to preserve capital. Their financial situation might be better than the others but its not great and outlook is poor. Everybody still too positive here thats why I don't think CLD has seen the bottom yet. I'm still thinking it will go to $2.50 or so and that 15 cent discount will become 30-40 cents.
    Jun 15, 2015. 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    Guess who the bookrunner of that offering was?

    Credit Suisse... The same shop that put the "outperform" and $11 PT on the stock a couple weeks ago.

    Gotta bet that some sort of offering is coming soon. Either debt or equity or both.
    Jun 15, 2015. 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    The bond market is starting to price some significant default risk in to CLD. We saw this with PCX then ANR and ACI and then WLT and now BTU. It happens quickly but the effect on the equity can be disastrous. I still think this breaks the GS price target of $3.
    Jun 15, 2015. 08:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    In my experience J it is still risky to buy something 50% higher than a recent Goldman Sachs price target. Short position is still growing. There is likely massive selling pressure and perhaps the same sellers are long the bonds. A lot at work here, most we aren't privy to. I think it is 50/50 whether this sees $3 or $5 next.
    Jun 15, 2015. 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    How have the railways been able to sustain such pricing power? Seems incredible. I note that CLD has been able to cut some costs there and it is the major expense but you would think pricing should come down significantly but it hasn't. Why is that?
    Jun 15, 2015. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    What sparked this PE frenzy a couple years ago that you alluded to that brought Oaktree and Monarch in to the mix among others, and are the reasons for it still valid?
    Jun 15, 2015. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    Well the stock is down nearly 30% since the Goldman report only a couple weeks ago, so I think it certainly had an impact. A lot of times it becomes fear based and even if Goldman just reiterated known information it suddenly starts to hit the market negatively. Its all about sentiment and right now based on all the positive articles for CLD almost daily, the sentiment is still pretty good in this name despite the selloff. I would like to see sentiment shift negative before getting long. Breaking through that Goldman $3 PT will be a start.
    Jun 15, 2015. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    Will the recent price destruction of met coal have a further negative effect on the BDI perhaps pushing back any chance of optimism even further out?
    Jun 15, 2015. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Twitter A.D. (After Dick) Reminds Us Of McDonald's [View article]
    More talk about Periscope to justify a $25B valuation? I stop reading when I see that. Reminds of the same argument made for Vine last year. I actually like Vine as a user and Periscope as well but both are marginal assets in this sort of valuation. There are some serious downside risks in Twitter that have never even been discussed. All the adult content for one makes it a reputational risk for most brand advertisers. Nevermind all the terrorist activity and hate groups. I think Twitter is cool and I use it a bit but it is completely uninvestable at anywhere near current valuations. Comparing it to McDonalds is just absurd.
    Jun 15, 2015. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    There also seems to be some huge hope that CLD can export coal but it has never proven this. Not sure if the economics make sense for it either. I think the key is domestic PRB demand. Goldman Sachs says it will be weak going forward and to be a CLD bull you have to believe that it will be strong but what evidence would suggest that PRB is going to rise in value domestically or even maintain the current depressed value?
    Jun 15, 2015. 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    India’s growing demand drives NSW’s coal export

    THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 15, 2015 12:00AM

    Coal ships sail up the NSW coast at Terrigal on the way to NewcastleCoal exports Source: TheAustralian

    ••

    The bulk carriers were lining up as far away as Gosford yesterday waiting to get a berth at New­castle’s giant port almost 100km to the north.

    Raising hopes among downbeaten miners, coal exports from NSW are up on the last financial year, pointing to a new era for the sector that hopes to feed India’s rising appetite for energy.

    While prices have come off sharply from slowing demand from China, coal remains NSW’s number one export commodity. Exports for 2014-15 jumped nearly 5 per cent to 133 million tonnes, from 127 million tonnes in the previous financial year.

    Exports to India have more than doubled from 3.2 million tonnes to 7.7 million tonnes over the nine months to March, according to figures released by Coal Services.

    “Exports of NSW coal to Korea are up 8 per cent, while exports to Taiwan have risen by 21 per cent and across the rest of Asia outside of Japan and China, exports have more than doubled to 15.6 million tonnes over the last nine months,” NSW Minerals Council chief executive Stephen Galilee said.

    The figures would be of little comfort to the 5000 coal industry employees of the state who lost their jobs over the past two years, but bode well for the long-term future of the sector, he said.

    “We shipped more last year than we did the year before,” Port Waratah Coal Services spokesman Paul Chamberlin said.

    The bulk of the coal exported through the Newcastle port was to China and Japan but “India is a growing market”, he said. “It is a win for Newcastle and Queensland because the coal that comes out of the Hunter Valley is very clean compared to ground coal from Victoria.”

    The port last week received approval for a $5 billion coal loading terminal, the T4 project, with a capacity for 70 million tonnes.

    “If you built it tomorrow it wouldn’t be used,” Mr Chamberlin said. “The indicators are that it is not needed at present, but exports will continue to grow ... you respond to what you’re told will be future demand.”

    The Minerals Council’s Mr Galilee estimated that India currently imported 80 per cent of its “low-grade, high-ash coal” from Indonesia.

    “(India’s) move to cleaner coal imports puts NSW in a prime ­position to benefit from this growing demand for the type of clean thermal coal our state produces,” he said.

    Japan comprises 40 per cent of total NSW coal exports, followed by China at 18 per cent and Korea at 11 per cent, but Mr Galilee said demand from India was set to ­increase.

    He pointed to a recent speech by India’s head of the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, who said that India wanted international miners to send their coal to India, including Australian players.

    The most recent forecast from the International Energy Agency predicts global electricity demand could double between 2009 and 2035 as those in the developing world gain access to electricity.

    “The energy mix is changing but there is still a use for fossil fuels,” Mr Chamberlin said. “India wasn’t even on the radar a few years ago.”

    Thermal coal prices have come off as China’s leadership is intent on reducing long-term coal imports as it deals with rising pollution and increases hydro, ­nuclear and gas-fired electricity generation.

    At the same time, a slowing economy there has hit steel­making.

    In 2014, some higher-cost Australian coking coalmines closed, including Vale’s Integra mine and Sumitomo’s Isaac Plains mine in Queensland and Glencore’s ­Ravensworth mine in NSW, but there are now many mines doing it tough.

    Prices of steelmaking coal, which traded above $US300 a tonne during the boom and were at $US113 at the start of the year, recently slumped to a 10-year low of $US85 a tonne, while thermal coal has fallen from more than $US140 a tonne to $US65 a tonne.
    Jun 15, 2015. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy - Investors' Current Hatred Of Coal Has Made This A Compelling Value [View article]
    J - Did you see this from Goldman Sachs a couple weeks ago?

    "However as a pure-play PRB producer, the company is levered to our negative outlook on the Powder River Basin where we see declining demand/ production driven by retirement of a quarter of PRB burning coal plant capacity in 2015-18. We estimate a 10% decline in CLD production in 2015-18. This is driven by lower demand for PRB coal as about 25 GWs of PRB-burning coal plant capacity (about 25% of installed capacity) retires in 2015-18E. We assume the bulk of the lower sales impact occurs in 2015 and conservatively assume a more modest reduction in 2016E-18E. However, as we discuss below, there is downside risk to our 2016-18 estimates."

    Very bearish on PRB. I can't see any counter argument to this viewpoint. The analyst has a $3 PT on CLD. Hard to argue with that although I normally would be the one to fade Goldman Sachs but this report makes sense.
    Jun 15, 2015. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    I do happen to follow coal a bit so that is helpful. As you noted Chinese coal imports have fallen drastically. The one bright spot in coal is the Japanese and Korean markets. I have a large position in an Australian company called Whitehaven Coal which focuses on these markets. All 3 governments (Australia, Japan and Korea) are strongly behind the coal industry. Is there any dry bulker that caters to this route from Australia to Japan and Korea?

    While India is importing coal from Indonesia for cheap it is very low quality and I expect imports to pick up from Australia. So I am pretty bullish at least on Australian coal to India. Regardless, India is using a lot of coal. Not sure how this affects the dry bulkers though? Check this out: http://bit.ly/1KTE9m1
    Jun 15, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    Thanks for the history lesson. I haven't followed the industry the last few years. Also looks like BDI has spiked 2013-2014 which helped stock valuations going in to 2014. I'm going to keep my eye on it.
    Jun 15, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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