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  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    Looks like SBLK is trading at an all time low now split adjusted. Is that correct, J?

    Looks like it did a split in 2012 of 1:15.
    Jun 15, 2015. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs getting into consumer lending [View news story]
    This can't end well.
    Jun 15, 2015. 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rhino Resource Partners: Normalized Production Costs Could Result In A Distribution Increase [View article]
    What is the chance of the distribution being entirely eliminated at least in the interim? Especially with the recent announced production stoppages?
    Jun 15, 2015. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    Interesting... thanks for the synopsis.

    Can you envision any way that Oaktree could screw common shareholders (despite owning 52% of the common) in SBLK?

    I'm always wary of these sort of scenarios as they seem too good to be true and the little guys like us often get backdoored somehow.
    Jun 15, 2015. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    Yes DRYS was the deal I was thinking of. I actually made some money off that one somehow out of luck as Ocean Freight got bought out of the blue after losing most of its value. I have stayed away since. My concern with Oaktree in charge of SBLK and now owning 52% is often their interests still aren't aligned with the common shareholder. Considering the companies need to constantly raise funds and are always in debt, somehow the shareholder ends up screwed much of the time. Still looking at it though. Good to see you cover the sector, not many do.
    Jun 15, 2015. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CTPartners Executive Search - 75% Upside Potential Due To Buyout Offer Price [View article]
    Huge block of like 600k shares went off at market $1.80
    Jun 15, 2015. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    A little confused by this statement:

    " I personally prefer the upside in Star Bulk Carriers (NASDAQ:SBLK), DryShips (NASDAQ:DRYS), and Scorpio Bulkers (NYSE:SALT), but recent equity dilutions (due to weaker balance sheets at these companies) are forcing me to deeply consider my holdings."

    Take SBLK for instance. Balance sheet seems to be improved with the equity raise and Oaktree now owns 52% and participated in the raise.

    Are you reconsidering your position because you expect future equity dilutions on top of what was just announced?

    I have no position here but have been eyeing it as it has been falling and falling.

    Any specific opinions on SBLK?
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Offers Stability For Drybulk Speculators [View article]
    Good luck J.

    Hard to get behind these shady Greeks though. They seem to screw common shareholders every chance they get with some backroom deal where they buy ships from their brother's company or whatever. I have avoided the sector for that reason but it is starting to look ridiculously cheap especially with demand not so terrible.
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CTPartners Executive Search - 75% Upside Potential Due To Buyout Offer Price [View article]
    Really strange that it can fall this far below the offer without any formal rejection or news. I have no position here and probably wont take one but I'd lean towards a surprise announcement in the next couple months at the latest. I think its probably a decent speculative buy here for those not afraid of a lot of risk.
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Will Be One Of The Last Companies Standing In American Coal [View article]
    I don't know if it is going bankrupt. I am a coal bull and Whitehaven (on the ASX) is one of my largest holdings. I think the sentiment among the US producers is even worse than anywhere else. Mostly due to political ramifications. I don't normally agree with most things said by Goldman Sachs analysts as opinions are conflicted and I fade them more often than not but this $3 PT is reasonable and so is the explanation. I can't find a reason to be bullish on PBR coal. It is simply too cheap of a product and low demand. While CLD has a good balance sheet (relatively speaking) and good management, you just can't fix a bad product. I still maintain that the way to play coal is in a favorable region with a company that produces a high demand product like Whitehaven for instance. One with no exposure to draconian emissions laws in China or the US but still suffers unfairly to the negative sentiment of coal overall. I think BTU at least has much higher demand products than CLD but I can't touch it because of the debt. As a long term investor who bets big with conviction (who is often very early), I have to be comfortable with the balance sheet and I just can't get behind BTU or any of the US coal companies at the moment.
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CTPartners Executive Search - 75% Upside Potential Due To Buyout Offer Price [View article]
    Any update on this analysis? What happened to the DHR offer?
    Jun 15, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Will Be One Of The Last Companies Standing In American Coal [View article]
    Unrealistic... no. It's certainly possible. It might be a best case scenario though in the near term. Not many analysts are expecting it. But again I come back to Whitehaven which will benefit enormously from $75 Newcastle pricing. Its unclear if that will even end up benefiting CLD as it really has no proven export strategy or system. Why make guesses that need several variables to come true in order to win? If you are a Newcastle bull you should buy a Newcastle producer. One that stands to benefit the most and one that can still make money in a $60 environment.
    Jun 12, 2015. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Will Be One Of The Last Companies Standing In American Coal [View article]
    Every bull was constantly pointing to BTU's supposed Australian operations and the advantage of that and now its basically shut down. Is the CLD export business the symbolic equivalent of that? I'd love a reason to get long CLD as it seems like it could be a real value play but I simply can't find one. You simply can't fix a bad product. You can be the best and most efficient gold miner of all time but if the price of gold drops so will your stock. There is just too many substitutes for inefficient PBR coal. Its not a good product and may never again be considered one. So that leaves CLD ultimately dead in the water. Granted it will be a few years before that happens but still long term its hard to be positive in any scenario.
    Jun 12, 2015. 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Will Be One Of The Last Companies Standing In American Coal [View article]
    That seems like a lot that has to go their way. Newcastle over $75/ton AND port capacity. I think that is the major issue. Who expects Newcastle coal to rise 20% imminently? And even if it does where does port capacity magically appear from? That is struggle I'm facing considering any US coal company as a long-term investment right now. If I had to pick one I like CLD but I still prefer Whitehaven and perhaps even other Australian providers that are located in a coal friendly region that ship to coal friendly regions. The major risk is political right now. But not every country is against coal. Right now there is good value in coal friendly regions because of overall industry negative sentiment. To me that seems like a better opportunity.
    Jun 12, 2015. 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Will Be One Of The Last Companies Standing In American Coal [View article]
    The problem with CLD as I pointed out a few times is its in a bad business. It sells cheap coal. Its hard to make money selling anything for $9 a ton. I know thats maybe a too simplistic of a way to think about it but there is so much that can go wrong with its business model. PBR coal dropping another couple dollars a ton will make CLD completely unviable. They might as well close. Compare that with Whitehaven for instance that sells a high demand (sold out for years) clean coal designed for the Japan market for $60-$90 a ton. So you benefit from Whitehaven because of the irrationality of the market selloff of coal in general but it truly doesn't apply to it. That is an opportunity. Its apples and oranges in terms of sustainable business model. Whitehaven Coal is like a niche player that will still flourish. The US producers are doomed because they have the government intent on destroying them. They can't export for a profit either as coal is plentiful everywhere and their coal simply isn't very good quality for other countries to justify importing it.
    Jun 12, 2015. 03:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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