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  • Cloud Peak Energy Will Be One Of The Last Companies Standing In American Coal [View article]
    I agree with that assessment. I think its still early to get long CLD as a long-term hold. I would need to see low $3's as like you said it wont be awarded a high PE rating in any case. Perhaps if you buy at $3 and sell at $6 that might be the trade. I love the contrarian angle of coal as its certainly hated more than anything right now and still has utility but its hard to fight the government and they are destroying the stock prices every day with bad news even if the news doesn't affect CLD it will still drag it down.
    Jun 12, 2015. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Will Be One Of The Last Companies Standing In American Coal [View article]
    I still like CLD as my favorite of the US producers but it looks like US is doomed. With the break of $5 and the slaughter in BTU, no telling where CLD will end up. Margin selling panic can drag it in to the $3's or even $2's. Meanwhile I suggested Whitehaven Coal as the best way to play this and in the past couple weeks during a 40% selloff in BTU, it is about even. Marginally down including the negative currency impact as it trades in AUD which is off versus the USD but only a few percent versus 40%. So I'm glad I chose it over BTU or CLD or any US coal company. Although the environmentalists in Australia hate coal, the government is strongly behind the industry and the big banks are not afraid to lend. Whitehaven's main customer is Japan and Korea behind that. Two countries that will be using (clean) coal forever. So the coal problem right now is painful everywhere by association but still a viable business outside of the US. Whitehaven stock is still dirt cheap because of negative connotations from the industry but the reality is it is doing better than ever and that wont change.
    Jun 12, 2015. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vince Holdings: The Decline Is Just Too Much [View article]
    Perhaps. I didnt actually read the article. I have no opinion on the stock. But Stan is pretty sharp on the handbag industry.
    Jun 11, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vince Holdings: The Decline Is Just Too Much [View article]
    Vince Martin defending Vince Holdings. Just thought I would point out the obvious irony. It is true that Stan has been right about every handbag company since I started reading this site. I joined him with a mutual negativity towards KORS at $80 when the fanboys were tripping over themselves to "buy the dip". We saw how that ended. Still not over yet.
    Jun 11, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge - Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Enter Here [View article]
    To be clear I am not long SD (as a few people asked me) and wont be buying but the argument here seens a little absurd.
    Jun 11, 2015. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge - Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Enter Here [View article]
    So all the analysts who have been wrong from day 1 are now expected to be right and therefore SD is toast? Weak argument Dallas.
    Jun 10, 2015. 05:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Will Be One Of The Last Companies Standing In American Coal [View article]
    Problem with CLD is its coal isn't in high demand and it is fighting an uphill regulatory battle. I'm playing coal through Whitehaven, which is listed on the ASX (ticker: WHC). The cleanest coal around with government support in Australia and no exposure to China as almost all of its sales are to Japan and Korea and pre-sold. Will be writing an article about it shortly.
    Jun 9, 2015. 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tremor Video: Significant Improvement In Gross Margins And Operating Leverage Provide Clear Visibility To Near-Term Profitability [View article]
    The valuation gap has now closed with YUME. In fact TRMR is actually now valued higher than YUME for the first time since I can remember. So therefore, I am closing this BUY rating which is up a considerable 32% from date of publication. I think TRMR could go higher to test the $4 trading range but my own capital is better served in other opportunities at the moment of which I will be posting articles on shortly (available NOW to my Premium Subscribers). The risk/reward still favors the upside IMO but not as much as it did when I posted the article in April. Sentiment is no longer extremely negative. Thanks for reading and hope some people made some money off this one, I sure did!
    Jun 9, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Mining to buy Cripple Creek & Victor from AngloGold for $820M [View news story]
    Hey wait, I thought gold is worthless?

    Nice sale for AU, who is a reluctant seller.

    For those who followed the story would know that they wanted to raise equity (at depressed levels) but got stymied by Paulson.

    Expectations here were for $700-$800M.

    They got a royalty too.

    Pretty bullish news for gold demand that will likely be overlooked like everything else in the middle of an extreme negative sentiment cycle.
    Jun 8, 2015. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • South Africa's AMCU union wants gold miners to double minimum pay [View news story]
    Yes saw that the other day. I'm looking to allocate some more funds towards another metal player within the next couple weeks as I slowly move assets from tech towards this sector. Right now I'm carefully considering several options but leaning towards doubling up on my Harmony Gold or Impala Platinum due to the strength of the balance sheets. I'm considering Gold Fields also but the balance sheet is weaker. Should be interesting as the labor talks start tomorrow in SA.
    Jun 8, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harmony Gold's plans to cut 3K jobs sparks union objection [View news story]
    Remember in terms of simply the richest deposits in the world, Harmony leads the pack. 11g of gold per ton. Pretty remarkable that it is trading so low given its problems are operational and fixable. Agree that it is a long term play. I own a sizable amount of the JSE issue. I also own a ton of Implats. Similar situation and perhaps a safer bet on a reversal of South Africa mining. More upside in Harmony though. Its crazy how hell holes like Senegal and Mali are now considered better mining destinations. South africa was the crown jewel of efficient mining for decades. Something has to give and it starts now with Harmony closing losing mines. Unions will have to crack. These guys cant be compelled to lose money. A restructured Harmony is a powerhouse and worth several times its current value. Even at current metal prices. I like Implats for its palladium which is holding up strong and they get no credit for it.
    Jun 2, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harmony Gold's plans to cut 3K jobs sparks union objection [View news story]
    Thanks for the link.
    May 30, 2015. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harmony Gold's plans to cut 3K jobs sparks union objection [View news story]
    Its not even comparable. Talking massive production at low costs but not till 2020. I would recommend reading December's feasibility study for details and projections. But even the modest projections far exceed current production from South Africa. Plus the PNG government is mining friendly and will be on board here likely as a stakeholder (another cash inflow to Harmony). Golpu production because of the heavy copper concentration works out to about $2900 per ounce of gold which is pretty remarkable in even a worst case gold pricing environment. Remember that Harmony sold 50% of Golpu for $550M in 2008 and since then follow up studies have shown it to be several times better than anticipated. Deutsche Bank valued Golpu at $9.9B a few years ago which makes Harmony's share worth 10x its current market cap. And Golpu is going to be sold or spun off this year. The CEO said that a few weeks ago. He said it will be done in a way to benefit shareholders (finally). I just got long here a couple weeks ago and am already like 15% underwater but not worried as the balance sheet is strong and its not going anywhere. Several of the South Africa mines are very profitable and low cost. The problem is as you can see now they have trouble closing the unprofitable ones but clearly they are trying and will have to be successful. Unions can't ultimately force them to stay open and lose money on unprofitable mines. Worst case they lose some of their unprofitable mining leases or they sell them for cheap. I've been meaning to do an article about Harmony as it is very misunderstood and sentiment could not be more negative.
    May 30, 2015. 12:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Harmony Gold's plans to cut 3K jobs sparks union objection [View news story]
    The unions are idiotic to be playing hardball with a company that is sitting pretty financially and will actually benefit from closing many mines and focusing on the low cost ones and the Golpu project outside the country. Ridiculously oversold here with easily monetizable assets worth several times its market value.
    May 29, 2015. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers And Agriculture, Some Potential Winning Plays [View article]
    I'm in the cattle business (Black Angus) and have recently been rapidly investing. Beef prices at all time highs. Things are good in this sector. The softs not so much though. I own a ton of medium dated corn contracts though. Fundamentals are bullish despite what pricing suggests.
    May 28, 2015. 06:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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