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Eric Falkenstein

 
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  • Why Chief Economists Are Only Good for PR [View article]
    Kenji: Once you bring together sociology, politics, markets, and 50 year waves, it becomes pretty unmanageable. I do like reading history, and good historians basically apply a theory to all that, but I don't think those writers explain business cycles at all. As per anti-capitalist economists being censored, I think you are unaware that socialist economics was pretty strong until the collapse of the Berlin wall, and the clear failure of the Soviet states, China under Mao, all those African and South American socialist governments. Further, a good proportion of philosophy, sociology, and poli sci departments are filled with anti-capitalists, and I don't think they have been really prescient. It's not that they weren't being published, it was they clearly were wrong. As Worldly Philosopher auther Robert Heilbronner noted in the 1990's, when looking at the failure of socialism, the further right you looked, the more correct the economists were regarding China and the rest (Hayek, von Mises, Birchers).

    But, I too am pessimistic about the US and Europe, though not from too much capitalism, rather, too much government.
    Aug 1 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chief Economists Are Only Good for PR [View article]
    kenji: ok, I'll take the bait. What is the 'political economics' or 'economic cycles theory'? I know of Kondratiev waves, but they happen so infrequently as to be untestable, and I find it fitted to the past with a large degree of hindsight. Further, I think it makes little sense (we have 50 year cycles because, all the people who observed X have to die?), other than the naive idea that 'sinusoidal cycles' is scientific, like x-rays, so that's a really rigorous way to approach history.

    As to ideology, I'm not sure where you are going. Krugman would say economists are free-market fundamentalists, whereas free-market types like myself would say most economists are Keynesians who vote Democratic and prefer higher taxes and spending at the margin, all the time.
    Jul 31 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Batesian Mimicry Explanation of Business Cycles [View article]
    I don't get over here that often, but I appreciate the comments. I'm very aware of ABC theory, and really liked the emphasis on the structure of production, which I think gets to Klings 'sustainable patterns of trade' mention. I differ in that they focused on the interest rate, and thus roundaboutness, where I think it's more a focus on that which appears most safe.
    Jul 30 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mega-Caps: The Original Low-Volatility Stocks [View article]
    In the 1970s, Fischer Black observed that low-beta stocks, which were less sensitive to the broad market's gyrations, performed nearly identically with high-beta stocks. {Citation needed}

    Black said that low beta stocks will have higher than predicted returns due to borrowing constraints, not higher or equal returns...that's a significant difference.
    May 3 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing 2 Low-Volatility ETFs: LVOL Vs. SPLV [View article]
    You are correct! I changed it on my blog. But, the point still stands, the difference is largely from the size factor loading.
    Oct 7 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX Risk Premium? [View article]
    so interesting I shant discuss further!
    Dec 4 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX Risk Premium? [View article]
    hmmm. I have access to a Bloomberg terminal, but this costs about $1800/month. I don't know of how else to see this (it's the CBOE's VIX future, symbols like UXZ0, UXF1, etc).
    Dec 2 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM Zombie Reanimated [View article]
    typo alert! Should be 0.9 l/a ratio, not 0.09...
    Nov 18 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stimulus Is Perennial Bad Advice [View article]
    Good point. I write these things without an editor and sometimes my thoughts don't make the page, or get mistranslated by my cerebrum. I generally correct them eventually on my website, but Seeking Alpha takes v1.0. See web link for update

    falkenblog.blogspot.co...
    Jun 15 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9 Comments
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