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Eric Fox

 
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  • Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing [View article]
    akapital9....you said "now is the time to invest in non-fossil fuels such as solar, bio-fuels, and wind."

    I meant to add that I agree with you on this.
    Jul 18 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing [View article]
    sophisse...you are right, confirm bias exists on both sides. I try to avoid it as much as I can, but since I am human it does impact my thoughts.

    crapneck...keep an open mind now - sarcasm is no substitute for analysis. No investment thesis lasts forever. Remember growth always disappoints in the end as every industry is cyclical no matter how growthy it looks and how long the cycle is.
    Jul 18 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing [View article]
    my old friend Jack Yetiv....I agree with your prediction but must note that no one and I mean no one thinks oil will go below $100. Of course, that does not mean it won't happen.

    ehart500...you said "I spoke with the oil economist of the Alaska state government back in 2004 and he said oil wouldn't hold above $50, and he gave me a list of reasons why--including demand destruction."

    you are right, people have been screaming about the collapse of oil for many years, but if you look at the data, the high price is finally taking a toll on demand particularly at a time when the economy is weakening and house prices are declining.
    Jul 18 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing [View article]
    whidbey...the point I was trying to make was with the frailties of the human psyche as you say - not picking on oil bulls. I did not know Bacon was a thief, but his statement does make sense. I have always tried to understand behavioral and psychological biases when I make investment decisions.

    akapital9....you said "now is the time to invest in non-fossil fuels such as solar, bio-fuels, and wind."

    ozzy43....you said "oil bulls are bullish for different reasons."

    It seems the main arguments are always the same - strong demand from emerging economies and limited or no supply growth. Everything else flows from that. That wasn't the point of the article, but click on my seeking Alpha and read my other articles on oil.

    Also, when I wrote "permanent increase" I meant permanent until the Saudis cut back. I wasn't implying a belief in abiotic oil. As for the labor strife comment - violence can go hand in hand with labor organization and attempts to get more, just look at the history of the American labor movement. Maybe you are right and I oversimplified the issues by labeling them as labor strife. Again, that wasn't the point. The point was that the market used that component of confirmatory bias to weight the loss of Nigerian and the gain in Saudi crude differently.
    Jul 18 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing [View article]
    Thank you for all your comments. I didn't receive as much abuse as usual when I write on oil, maybe the $15 drop the last 3 days has kept some of the Seeking Alpha oil bulls glued to their screens.

    Jul 18 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Fed 'Disappear' in the Next Decade? [View article]
    The Fed was created by an act of Congress, and it can be eliminated by an act of Congress. There is nothing in the constitution about having a central bank. Would that solve anything? The Treasury might, by default, assume many of its powers.
    Jul 16 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC Panics [View article]
    Interesting list of companies:

    BNP Paribas Securities Corp. BNPQF or BNPQY
    Bank of America Corporation BAC
    Barclays PLC BCS
    Citigroup Inc. C
    Credit Suisse Group CS
    Daiwa Securities Group Inc. DSECY
    Deutsche Bank Group AG DB
    Allianz SE AZ
    Goldman, Sachs Group Inc GS
    Royal Bank ADS RBS
    HSBC Holdings PLC ADS HBC and HSI
    J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM
    Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. LEH
    Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. MER
    Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. MFG
    Morgan Stanley MS
    UBS AG UBS
    Freddie Mac FRE
    Fannie Mae FNM
    Jul 16 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC Panics [View article]
    Here is the link to the actual SEC order:

    www.sec.gov/news/press...
    Jul 16 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Was Oil Up Wednesday? [View article]
    tuj...let's hope that it doesn't come down to violence and the issue can be settled through negotiations.
    Jul 16 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Story: Washington Federal [View article]
    Ames...as you know, the key is to find the ones dragged down in sympathy. Updated numbers for the end of June are not due until Sept according to the FDIC site.
    Jul 16 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC Panics [View article]
    The bloomberg link in the first paragraph is bad. Can you post the correct one?
    Jul 15 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Percentage of Stocks Over 50-Day Moving Average [View article]
    How about below 10,000 in 2008?
    Jul 11 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Do Young Fund Managers Perform During Bubbles? [View article]
    I wonder if the study would have the same result if it looked at commodity investing.
    Jul 11 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Was Oil Up Wednesday? [View article]
    I just read this:

    "Most of the people on the U.S. side assumed that the adversary in the game would be Iraq, but according to a Nova show on PBS, it was later revealed that the other side was simulating the military forces of Israel, since U.S. military officials felt it was the only state in the region that would be a worthy adversary for American military power."

    Maybe that's why we lost !!!
    Jul 11 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Was Oil Up Wednesday? [View article]
    usbworks...stop calling me names. Say something intelligent and maybe you can change my mind.
    Jul 11 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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