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Eric Parnell, CFA

 
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  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    Hello Bill,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising some good points. In regards to the supply of gold, it is measured not only by total mine supply but also recycled gold. And if recycle rates slow, it can lead to a reduction in overall supply on a year over year basis.

    Thanks again
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    Hello koolsool,

    Thanks for your comment and for focusing on an important point. As you mentioned in your comment, I did not indicate in my article that world oil demand has decreased. Instead, the focus is on the fact that the rate of growth in supply began running well in excess of the slowing rate of growth in demand. And this disparity is projected to widen going forward, particularly if OPEC opts to not cut back on production. All of this information is according to statistics provided by the IEA.

    Thanks again for raising an important point.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    Hello Dale,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your observations from a Canadian perspective. I always enjoy reading your articles and fine work on SA.

    I hope you are doing well and happy holidays to you!
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    Thanks puttenham!
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    Hello newbeach861 - Thanks for your comment here as well as your kind words from above. I genuinely appreciate it.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    Thanks Buyandhold 2012 - I appreciate it!
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    Hello Doug12,

    Thanks for your comment and this is a great question. What I have found remarkable over the last couple of weeks is how well the broader market has held up to this point despite the heavy pressure in the energy sector. I believe this is a testament to the seasonal strength underlying the market. It could be a very different story for stocks, however, once the calendar flips to January 2015. It will be interesting to watch how events unfold.

    Thanks again.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Feasting On The Stock Market Harvest [View article]
    Hello Interesting Times,

    Thanks for your comment. I hope you are doing well.

    You raise some very good points as always here. I am long-term bullish on both gold and silver, although I am more bullish on gold than silver at least in the medium-term, as I worry about silver's industrial exposure to China. But I believe both metals, particularly gold, have performed contrary to reasonable expectations since the beginning of last year in an environment of unprecedentedly aggressive currency management by global central banks, perceived geopolitical and global economic instabilities and steadily solid if not strong physical demand. But as Avi Gilburt has repeatedly highlighted over the last few years, sentiment plays a key role in the price performance of gold and silver, and over the last few years this sentiment, regardless of the drivers of this sentiment, has been decidedly negative. But once we see a turn in sentiment, I believe the potential upside for the precious metals is meaningful. Only time will tell.

    As for oil, I believe it is important for different reasons in today's market. The long-term supply/demand fundamentals for oil also remain positive, but we are in a time right now where the price leader in a global oligopoly that includes a cartel that carries out explicit collusion has decided to impose discipline. And what the continuously coddled U.S. stock market has seemingly forgotten since the crisis subsided in March 2009 (not coincidentally at the same exact time that daily Treasury purchases as part of QE1 began) is that the imposition of discipline hurts. Anyone exposed to energy shares on Friday felt this pain directly. And if policy holders ever turn to discipline voluntarily or the market begins to impose discipline by force, investors will rediscover true volatility and downside risk in a hurry. In the meantime, the broader stock market coddling continues, albeit at a lesser degree with the end of QE3.

    As for the choice between physical and paper gold, I would continue to recommend for those that are willing to go through the extra effort and do not mind forgoing some trading liquidity that acquiring the physical is the preferred way to go. As for timing, I am watching more closely for potential entry points in gold as we move into early 2015.

    Thanks again IT. Great questions. I'll talk to you soon.
    Nov 30, 2014. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feasting On The Stock Market Harvest [View article]
    Hello China Dividend Mantra,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your findings. It will definitely be interesting to see where oil goes from here, as today's -10% drop on WTI and Brent was certainly notable. Of course, in today's supercharged market, sharp reversals to the upside can be just as swift and unpredictable. Great points.

    Thanks again.
    Nov 29, 2014. 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feasting On The Stock Market Harvest [View article]
    Hello Alan,

    Thanks as always for your comment. I hope that you are doing well this evening. And great points as usual both on the precious metals as well as some of the likely effects from the ongoing competitive challenges facing Mattel.

    Thanks again Alan. I look forward to talking again soon.
    Nov 28, 2014. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Feasting On The Stock Market Harvest [View article]
    Hello Rock228,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it! And congratulations on your position in DUST today, as it certainly was up handsomely at +27% by the close!!

    Thanks again.
    Nov 28, 2014. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feasting On The Stock Market Harvest [View article]
    Hello Michael,

    Thank you for your comment and for raising an excellent point here. The last thing that many investment organizations want at the end of the year, particularly if they have struggled relative to the market, is to be showing a bunch of poor performing stocks on their holdings roster. This is a very good point.

    I hope you and your family had a happy Thanksgiving. I look forward to exchanging thoughts and ideas again soon.
    Nov 28, 2014. 11:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Feasting On The Stock Market Harvest [View article]
    Hello steve_t,

    Thanks for your comment. In regards to your question, I'll first preface my answer by saying that I am not a tax professional, so you'll want to consult with your own tax adviser to confirm anything discussed here, but the trade date is the critical date when tax loss harvesting. As a result, you can execute a sale up until the last trading day of the year, which is December 31 this year, and still report the gain or loss for the current calendar year. And it will be interesting to see how oil prices move from here, particularly after the events from today's shortened trading session.

    Thanks again.
    Nov 28, 2014. 11:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Defense All Around The World [View article]
    Hello Ted - Thanks as always for your comment and your great points. I appreciate it and hope that you are doing well.
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Defense All Around The World [View article]
    Hello Roman,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising a good point. The debate about whether underlying economic fundamentals have been strong or not has definitely been a lively one over the last several years, as I believe both sides of the debate have reasonable evidence in support of their argument. In regards to the case you have presented, an important question remains - if economic fundamentals have been so strong over the past five years as you mentioned in a comment below, why then has the U.S. Federal Reserve been so compelled to continuously provide monetary stimulus in the form of zero interest rates and various asset purchase programs totaling nearly $4 trillion? If underlying fundamentals have been so strong all along, would the Fed not have been inclined to step away from such programs long ago and forgo programs such as QE2, QE3 and Operation Twist to allow the strength of the U.S. economy to proceed on its own? Frankly, I would have liked to have seen the Fed step away from any further stimulus instead of engaging in QE2 in the summer of 2010 and all of the programs that have followed since. This way, we could have seen whether U.S. economic fundamentals were as strong as you and others have claimed they have been and I've long believed they could be without the support of the Fed after a needed cleansing process. This, of course, is the makings for great debate and I respect both sides of the argument. But the one point that cannot be denied is the resoundingly robust performance of the stock market over the past five years, regardless of exactly what the underlying drivers may be.

    Great points and I look forward to reading your future articles on SA.
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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