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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • Making Sense Of The China Stock Roller Coaster [View article]
    Hi harrik - Thanks for your comment and for raising what is a good question. I'll look to answer it here. My point in the beginning of the article about predictability was largely from a technical perspective. In other words, someone with a chart could sit down with the Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index and identify a number of common inflection points where the market has both bounced and reversed lower such as the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. So given this recent behavior and now that it has bounced off of its 200-day moving average, the next key level worth watching on the SSEC would be resistance at the 100-day moving average that is currently at 4188.97 and rising since this trendline served as previous resistance. If it breaks out above the 100-day M.A., it would be bullish, and if it fell back after hitting the 100-day M.A., it would imply that the correction may have further to run.

    With all of this being said and despite any predictability that I am describing here, there are far to many other risk factors at work that lead me to conclude that investors are better served to stay away at least for now. These include some of the intervention measures that you've mentioned along with the fact that the ETF instruments available for an investor to even try to track these already volatile moves have not tracked the SSEC closely anyway at least to the upside.

    So despite what has been some surprisingly predictable behavior from a technical analysis perspective, the variety of other uncertainties that exist make the market far too unpredictable to try and participate right now.

    Hopefully this makes sense. Thanks.
    Jul 29, 2015. 10:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The China Stock Roller Coaster [View article]
    Hi Michael,

    Thanks for your great perspectives. And I think you are completely correct that as time goes by the opportunity set in China will likely become more broadly defined and hopefully more transparent as a result. I know the effort to get the A-shares included in the MSCI indices remains a priority - it will be interesting to see how much the recent policy actions may have set back this effort if at all. But in the meantime, I think your approach is right to stay out of this market at least for the time being.

    Thanks again Michael. I hope you are doing well.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The China Stock Roller Coaster [View article]
    Hi fedecapo - I imagine it has been tremendously frustrating for those that have been allocated to China both within and outside of the country. Did you own one of the three ETFs mentioned in the article? Unfortunately, we are seeing the consequences of what happens when policy makers seek to boost capital markets through artificial means, as it causes a variety of unanticipated fallout effects.

    Thanks again!
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The China Stock Roller Coaster [View article]
    Hi tallguyz - Thanks for your comment. And I agree completely that the China stock market is best avoided for the reasons that you've mentioned here. Excellent points.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The China Stock Roller Coaster [View article]
    Hi erics3200 - Thanks a lot. I agree that the China stock market is far too volatile and difficult to gain the necessary access to make it worthwhile. It will remain interesting to watch to see how it progresses from here.

    Thanks again!
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The China Stock Roller Coaster [View article]
    Hi Cologero - Thanks for your comment - I appreciate it!
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrials: How Market Illness Spreads [View article]
    Tack - Thanks so much for your reply and for sharing the details of your current thinking. This is a brilliant comment with so many things well said.

    Thanks again for taking the time to reply. I appreciate it.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrials: How Market Illness Spreads [View article]
    Hi dieuwer - Excellent point and thanks for mentioning it. A topic that I am exploring as I move forward in my travels through the sector is comparing the impact we are seeing in the mid-cap and small cap industrial space relative to the large caps to assess the impact of the strong dollar. Great point!
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrials: How Market Illness Spreads [View article]
    Hi Alan - Great points. Thanks for your comment.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrials: How Market Illness Spreads [View article]
    Hi kgerickson - Thanks a lot and great points. I have been worried about U.S. investor complacency for some time. I hope those that can least afford a prolonged loss of principal value are prepared for any potential downside scenarios. Thanks again for your comment.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrials: How Market Illness Spreads [View article]
    Hi Tack - Thanks as always for your commentary. I always enjoy reading your perspectives. Out of curiosity, what is your current view on the market outlook? I know you have been generally bullish on the market for some time. Do you maintain this view or are you seeing other risk levels rising beyond the good points that you've made here?

    Thanks again.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrials: How Market Illness Spreads [View article]
    Hi tallguyz - Thanks for your comment and your kind words on my articles. I appreciate it. While the market remains resilient including its recent hold of support at its 200-day moving average yesterday, I agree that the pressure is building. It will be interesting to see how things play out as we enter the key months of August through October.

    Thanks again!
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrials: How Market Illness Spreads [View article]
    Hi luckylalo,

    Thanks for your comment and particularly good points on the high quality names that have pulled back in the industrial complex. To your point, I am particularly interested in what is currently unfolding with EMR. I go way back with Emerson, as it was one of the first stocks that I ever owned, and I hold the company in high regard. Certainly it is going through a tough operating stretch right now given the issues with oil and China, but such pullbacks can provide the ideal buying opportunities to establish dedicated long-term positions. While it is not yet near my price target, at this rate it is making good progress toward it.

    Great points and thanks again.
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part II: Anti-Austerity Strikes Back [View article]
    Hi Alan,

    Thanks so much for your comment. I hope you're doing well.

    Thanks again and I look forward to talking again soon.

    Eric
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis Watch - Where Lightning Could Strike Next [View article]
    Hi Thomas - Thanks for your comment here as well as on my other recent articles. I haven't had the opportunity to reply to comments on my recent articles over the last few days, but I have read them all and have appreciated all of your great thoughts and perspectives that you've shared over the past few days. And I think you make a number of excellent points on the technical side of the market. It is setting up to be a very interesting week ahead!

    Thanks again!
    Jul 25, 2015. 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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