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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hi Matthew,

    Thanks for your comment and this is a great question. I have been working through the sectors of the market in different articles over the last several weeks and have both consumer staples and utilities in the queue along with tech and a few others. I hope to have these articles completed soon.

    Thanks again!
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hi Rock,

    Thanks for your reply. I appreciate it.

    And these are excellent points on the VIX futures curve. Thanks for sharing and highlighting this information.

    Great points. Thanks again and I look forward to reading your future comments. Hope you are doing well.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hi Nantucket,

    Thanks so much for your reply and for sharing your detailed views here. I agree with much of your thinking here and will check some of the names that are not yet on my radar screen based on your recommendation.

    Thanks again! This is great material.
    Aug 24, 2015. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    Hi Fred,

    Thanks for your excellent comment, as you hit on a key point. We bounced off of lows at 1867 on the S&P 500 today and are now nearly 80 points above these lows and rising fast as I write this comment at Noon ET. But to your point, this 1867 low has created a line in the sand. It may not be today or even a month from now, but I believe stocks are likely to retest these lows (along with the October 2014 lows among others for that matter) sometime in the future before it's all said and done.

    Great points. Thanks again.
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    Hi Moon,

    Thanks as always for your great commentary. I share your frustration with global central bankers including the Fed. They should have stepped away in the summer of 2010 and allowed the financial system to go through the healing process. Instead, they proceeded to artificially inflate asset prices over the next five years and have created a new set of systemic risks in the process that will be challenging to unwind.

    Markets have remained surprisingly orderly given the magnitude of the declines today, although some of the dislocations that took place in the ETF marketplace this morning were stunning. It will be interesting to see what the afternoon holds. Neither a close in a green nor a break below opening lows can be ruled out at this stage, although with the VIX continuing to fall from its opening spike and TLT having fallen into negative territory, it seems that probability is lining up behind a further bounce into the close. Extraordinary day.

    Thanks again.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    Hi Kevin,

    Thanks for the comment and excellent point. S&P is currently consolidating at 1925, which is roughly 60 points above the opening lows at 1867. We are seeing higher intraday lows as stocks consolidate at this level and the VIX is now back to 36 after peaking at 53 earlier this morning. Perhaps this is the beginning of the bounce, but its still a long day ahead as you said.

    The dislocations in the ETF and even among major stocks this morning were incredible. This is a major problem in and of itself that warrants close attention going forward.

    Thanks again.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    Hi RS055,

    Thanks for your comment and I think you have hit on a key point. If the Fed comes back with jawboning or hints at future policy action like they have so many times in the post crisis period and the market does not respond, this would likely mark a key turning point for financial markets going forward. This will be critically important to watch.

    What I find most amazing is the number of high visibility people already out calling for the Fed to take emergency action (call of rate hikes, mull QE4, etc.). Have financial markets become so fragile that they cannot tolerate a sell off that is only going on its fifth day? Extraordinary.

    Thanks again.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    Hi Thomas,

    Thanks as always for your great commentary and excellent points. Given the weakness in the futures market this morning, the next levels to watch on the S&P 500 are 1904 and then 1820 at the October 2014 lows. It should be another interesting week! Thanks again.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    Hi Master - The example about the 400-day M.A. break is not the entire data set, which stretches back over 85 years. Instead, the 2011 is the most recent example. Including all historical instances in the article would have been extraneous and cumbersome.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    Hi newbeach - Thanks for your comment. This is a very interesting and notable development on the pricing side. Thanks for sending it along.

    Hope you are doing well,
    Eric
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    Hi Ted,

    Thanks as always for your excellent commentary and analysis. Great points as always. Thanks again!
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hi Alan,

    Thanks so much for your comment. I hope you are doing well.

    I really enjoyed reading your comment, as you have basically summarized many of the points that I wrote in my next article on SA that I submitted for publication on Friday and is currently in the queue. We are clearly thinking along the same wavelength!!

    Thanks again and I look forward to talking again soon.

    Eric
    Aug 22, 2015. 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hi DWD - Outstanding comment and I think you make excellent points. You are very right, as it is very much possible that we are witnessing nothing more than an overdue correction in an extended bull market with asset prices finally working to regress their way back to the mean. After all, the roads on the bull market from 1982 to 2000 is littered with bears that said the market had gotten way ahead of itself only to see things like the 1987 crash, the commercial banking crisis of the early 1990s, the Asian flu and Russian ruble crisis of the late 1990s and the collapse of LTCM in 1998 all come and go with a stock market that continued to press higher. Perhaps we are witnessing the same today. It will be interesting to see, and your point is an excellent one. Thanks again.
    Aug 22, 2015. 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hi Waterloo - Excellent comment and I agree with your and Don's comments. Some of the points that you have raised here are topics that I plan on exploring more in future articles. Completely agree and thanks again.
    Aug 22, 2015. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hi Rock,

    Always enjoy reading your comments and thanks for sharing your views here. Returning to my reply to wizjinx from above, I do not see a recession as a precondition to a bear market. In fact, it is very possible that we could see the economy continue to plod along with stock prices falling into a sustained and extended bear market. This is basically what took place during the bear market from 2000 to 2002 when stocks fell by more than half, as the recession did not come until 2001 after 9/11 and was fairly short lived by historical standards.

    But with that being said, you may also very well be right that this is only a short-term market reaction to anticipated Fed tightening that could begin as soon as next month. Although it is worth noting that many cite the fact that the Fed has technically been tightening monetary policy albeit from very accomodative levels, since last July 2014 as a result of their QE tapering program. Perhaps this helps explain why the market has been in a sideways pattern for nearly 10 months dating back to last November.

    Thanks again Rock. These are great questions that are worth exploring more.
    Aug 22, 2015. 11:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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