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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hi ConArtist - Excellent point on REITs also holding up well. Regional banks may be another segment worth watching even if the Fed pulls back on raising interest rates. As for your call on the Dow, we may be there by next week if things continue at their current pace! Thanks.
    Aug 21, 2015. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Hello everyone,

    I wanted to write to say thank you to all who took the time to comment on my article today. I have read all 112 comments to date and appreciate the kind words as well as the constructive feedback. I will be continuing to read any addition comments as they are posted and am planning on posting replies where possible in the coming hours into the weekend.

    Thanks again to all. I genuinely appreciate all of your thoughts and perspectives and look forward to replying in more detail soon.

    Eric
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Hi Kyle - Thanks for your comment. I'm inclined to share an important distinction here. Providing investors with signals to watch for in determining whether we are about to enter a bear market is different than actually predicting a bear market. It is the equivalent of street signs on a road - just because a sign warns of a deer crossing ahead does not mean that you are going to hit a deer, but if you know to look out for the deer ahead you're less likely to hit one and will arrive home safely. As for whether I was predicting bear markets for any of the dates you've mentioned above, I leave that for readers to decide. But just for the sake of argument, I throw out two from the dates that you've mentioned above. Everything is open to interpretation, and I appreciate that people may read things in different ways and draw their own conclusions. Such is the enjoyment in writing on Seeking Alpha.

    Thanks again.

    April 2014 - http://seekingalpha.co...

    February 2014 - http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:44 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Well said jsiebel720. The only thing that I would add here is that investors need to take note of the fact that when identifying a great company in the biotech space - and there are many - that they may be subject from time to time to the forces of broader ETFs like the IBB. It is important that investors can tolerate these swings as part of their investments in the space, particularly when they occur to the downside.
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Hi Illuminati - Thanks for your comment and this is a very interesting idea that would be worth investors to explore. Thanks for sharing it here, as the strategy behind your thinking is well reasoned.
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Hi dieuwer - Thanks for the comment. I'm not saying I'm bearish on the biotech sector, as I recognize in my article that momentum remains at the back of the biotech sector and that it will continue to rise. I wouldn't own GILD right now if I was immediately bearish. Instead, my point is to highlight the risks that are now present after such a strong run and to provide some signals to monitor as to when it may be time to start becoming bearish.

    Thanks for proving me with the opportunity to clarify.
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Hi Nesjamag,

    Thanks for your excellent comment. And I agree with many of the points that you are making here. I do not deny the tremendous growth potential that exists in the biotech industry today versus a decade ago or even versus the end of 2012 for that matter before biotech stock prices started rising sharply.

    My question is not necessarily about the growth potential, but whether we may have arrived at a juncture where the price appreciation has been so sharp that it may now be running ahead of its future growth potential. The same question could have been raised about the technology sector back in the late 1990s - the growth potential remained tremendous, it was just that the sector got way ahead of itself back then. Not saying that biotechs today are the same as tech stocks in 2000, but following such a sharp price appreciation over the last 2.5 years, the risks are higher today than they were back at the end of 2012.

    Great comment. Thanks again.
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Hi Left and OGN,

    Thanks for your comments and for raising excellent points. I do not deny at all the scientific and technological advances that you mention. But many of these same forces also existed over the last several years when biotech stocks were languishing. So in part, it raises the question as to how much investors are willing to pay for this potential and whether it is now priced into these stocks or not following their strong advance. Perhaps it is not, but given the gains of the past two years it is more likely to be today than it had been a few years ago.

    As for the timing around the implementation of ACA, this is also a fair point that it will bring new customers, but the question remains about the ultimate net benefit resulting from these customers. For example, insurers need to compete on price and some of these drug offerings are at prices that do not fit into an overall ACA compliant program. And this is an issue not only for the newly insured but for those with existing coverage that are switching over to ACA plans. I'm not saying the ACA won't be a net benefit for the drug industry in general and biotechs in particular over time, but much of this is based on projections and there are costs as well as benefits that have yet to be netted out.

    Great points and thanks for raising them.
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Hi NY Bear Watcher - Thanks for your comment and great points. The movement on BLUE and AXON are definitely notable. In regards to BLUE, what is also notable is the strong move to the upside since 2014 that preceded it - the advance from below $20 to near $200 in about a year is amazing. For many investors at this stage, their view will depend on where their entry point is. Just like UTX in the industrial sector, the impact of the recent pullback from $123 to $98 can be eased if one was in below $80 back in the start of 2013. But to your point, some of the recent violent swings are what investors should be careful of at this point. Thanks again.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Hi Harm - It sounds as though you may be particularly bearish on the biotech sector. Do you share Rich's view above that individual names stand out above the group, or do you see the industry liquidating as a whole at some point? Thanks.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Thanks Alex - I appreciate it!
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Hi Rich - Thanks for your comment. I completely agree, as the range of companies across the biotech industry is vast in terms of their specific characteristics. And to your point, companies like AMGN and GILD have very different fundamental characteristics than many of the more speculative names in the space, which have unique characteristics in their own right. So I completely agree that an investor is best served to dig into the details and pick out the specific companies that they know best.

    My emphasis on presenting biotech collectively as an industry is to highlight that in aggregate the industry can move sharply in and out of favor over time. And when the industry has a whole gets moved to one extreme or another at any given point in time, it can lead to big moves in the broader ETFs that can end up dragging both the good and bad names in the group along for the ride in either direction. For example, if the IBB ends up correcting by -20%, I recognize that it will be difficult for my position in GILD to hold up in the face of this broader industry pressure at least in the short-term despite the fact that the fundamentals for this specific company may be strong.

    But your point is an excellent one and I appreciate your raising it so that I could clarify my own views on this point.

    Thanks again.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: Will There Be Blood? [View article]
    Hi Belton - Thanks for the roster of links, as I appreciate the time it must have taken to scroll through my history of articles, but my question for you is the following - have you read the entire articles, or are you just looking at the titles? The content varies across the links that you've provided, but I think you will find that upon closer inspection that the broader theme isn't about fear. Instead, it's about risk management and what to watch out for so that you don't have to be afraid regardless of whether the market is going up or down. And this holds true not only for stocks but for all asset classes, some of which are offering attractive opportunities including a number of segments within the stock market too. Hopefully some find it useful, but I recognize it's not for everyone.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:36 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Does Not A Crisis Make [View article]
    Hi tallguyz - Thanks for your kind words and for sharing your strategy. Out of curiosity, what did you decide to sell last September? I'd be interested to know if you are willing to share, but I understand too if you'd rather not.

    Thanks again and I hope that you are doing well.
    Aug 5, 2015. 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chez Bear: Your Appetizers Are Now Being Served [View article]
    Thanks Timmies. I hope you are doing well.
    Aug 5, 2015. 03:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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