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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • What U.S. Investors Can Expect From ECB QE [View article]
    Hello creese,

    Thanks as always for your comment and your great point. I think you are correct that the Fed, despite their repeatedly stated intent to raise rates, will find it a challenge to actually execute in this regard. The first 25 bps move will be particularly telling, as the Fed may find it difficult to follow through with more from there. And as many central banks have proven in the past, rate hikes into economic headwinds are often reversed. It is for these reasons and more that the markets are likely ignoring the Fed's repeated claims. They, of course, through their repeated policy actions over the last many years have put themselves in this position, so it will be interesting to see if they can eventually reverse this perception issue and current lack of credibility on the hawkish side. In the meantime, bond yields continue to slide and the U.S. stock market party rages on.

    Great points as always. Thanks again for your comment.
    Jan 25, 2015. 08:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What U.S. Investors Can Expect From ECB QE [View article]
    Hello Dave,

    Thanks for your comment and I agree with your points. The benefits from QE are limited and they do not push through the channel to those structural areas that need to be addressed most. Excellent points.

    Thanks again.
    Jan 25, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The ECB Kill The Gold Rally? [View article]
    Hello eagle1003,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising a point that will enable me to clarify. I regret if the article came across as bearish towards gold, as I would describe myself as short-term bearish following the recent strong rally but more constructive and positive over the intermediate-term to long-term, as I believe we are approaching the end of the gold bear market if the bottom is not already in. I suspect we will see some continued volatility in the metal, however, as the bottoming process continues to play itself out.

    Great point and thanks for raising it. I always enjoy and appreciate your comments.
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The ECB Kill The Gold Rally? [View article]
    Hello Papa of Four,

    Thanks for your comment. I have enjoyed reading your recent article on SA. And I agree that it will be interesting to see how events unfold for the commodities complex in the coming days.

    Thanks again.
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market To Be Hanged In A Fortnight? [View article]
    Hello tallguyz,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it. And great point on the "high quality" reference as it relates to the sovereign debt of many of these euro member countries. I agree that the perception of quality has definitely become challenged and subject to debate in this post crisis period.

    Thanks again!
    Jan 19, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market To Be Hanged In A Fortnight? [View article]
    Hello longimgn,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising a great question. This is a topic that could fill a chapter of content and I want to provide you with an answer that you will find relevant and useful. As a result, I am going to gather together some material and links that I can provide that I think do a good job of going into all of these currency topics. I'll check back soon with more.

    Thanks again!
    Jan 19, 2015. 10:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market To Be Hanged In A Fortnight? [View article]
    Hello Martin,

    Thanks for your comment and I appreciate your perspective. What evidence would you cite for Yellen being more dovish than her predecessors? Granted, she was supportive of Bernanke's policies in her supporting role at the Fed prior to her move to Chair, but what would you point to since she has taken the helm that would make her more dovish than Bernanke or even Greenspan for that matter? I'm interested in your thoughts on this point.

    Thanks again for your comment.
    Jan 19, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market To Be Hanged In A Fortnight? [View article]
    Hello thechaser,

    Thanks a lot for your comment and for raising a number of excellent points. The ECB seems to be leaking as much as it can to the markets ahead of the Thursday announcement, perhaps with some room for a bit of an "upside surprise" in the stimulus offering. But when it all gets broken down, it may not be as much or as steadily flowing as the markets need to get a steady, sustainable lift. It will be interesting to see. And I also agree with your points on Yellen, as I believe she will be remembered as far more hawkish than she is currently perceived by today's markets, but this is a slow evolution.

    Great points. Thanks again
    Jan 19, 2015. 09:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market To Be Hanged In A Fortnight? [View article]
    Hello creese,

    Thanks for your comment. And I agree, it will likely be very difficult to differentiate between exactly what forces are causing global capital markets to move at any given point in time over the current two weeks.

    Thanks again
    Jan 19, 2015. 07:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Outlook: Pain [View article]
    Hello Jmar705,

    Thank you very much for your comment and your very kind words. I genuinely appreciate it. Happy New Year to you too!
    Jan 1, 2015. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Outlook: Pain [View article]
    Hello YellowJoe - Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it!
    Jan 1, 2015. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Outlook: Pain [View article]
    Hello diroha,

    Thanks for your comment. And I think that you are right that any future bear market will likely not be similar in form to what we saw with the financial crisis, as global policy makers are now so overly sensitive to any signs of market weakness. Instead, any future bear market could take a few years to play itself out with a seemingly endless progression of corrections followed by rallies to various lower highs. But as long as the uptrend remains intact and headline corporate earnings are on the rise, the bull market has fuel to continue in the meantime.

    Great points and thanks again.
    Jan 1, 2015. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Outlook: Pain [View article]
    Hello AnonymousAlpha,

    Thanks for your comment. You raise a particularly good question. While Treasuries have been a most reliable hedge against the stock market over time and particularly in recent years, the fact that they rose together in 2014 raises some concerns. What is notable, however, is that despite the fact that both had upward sloping price charts in 2014, the negative correlation can still be seen in that Treasuries accelerated to the upside on stock sell offs and weakened on stock rallies. But the fact that yields have fallen so low raises the question as to whether Treasuries can continue to rise if stocks enter into a sustained correction. I suppose the fact that government bond yields in so many other parts of the developed world are so much lower provides reasons for optimism in this regard. It will be interesting to see.

    Thanks again.
    Jan 1, 2015. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Outlook: Pain [View article]
    Hello liusing,

    Thanks for your comment and great point. I agree completely that income and quality are very important and also spend a great deal of time focusing on this topic. But my primary concern in regards to market cycles is that many have been forced into investment markets in recent years, particularly retirees and those living on fixed incomes, in order to try to attain income and yield that they can no longer secure from principal guaranteed sources such as FDIC insured deposits and CDs. Unfortunately, these people cannot suffer and may not even be prepared for the potential for a -30% to -50% loss of the principal value of their investments at any given point in time. As a result, both a focus on income and quality stocks as well as how to navigate broader market cycles can have value.

    Good points and thanks for raising them in your comment.
    Jan 1, 2015. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Outlook: Pain [View article]
    Hello Mike,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising some good points.

    To the contrary, I have been out of my gold position for some time now given that sentiment has been so decisively negative on the metal and have written to this point on a number of occasions over time. I do believe that underlying fundamentals will eventually be rewarded in the metal particularly given the bear market in gold we have seen over the last three years, but it will require a change in sentiment that I believe could come sometime in 2015, hence the gradual approach suggested in reestablishing any such allocations. And to believe that gold has long-term upside potential does not necessarily imply that one is bearish on the economy or the market. After all, both stocks and gold rose in tandem from 2003 to 2007 and again from 2009 to 2011.

    As for the stock market, I remain genuinely concerned about the long-term fate of this market, as I believe the policies undertaken to try and resuscitate the market from the financial crisis will have negative long-term consequences. But as I have mentioned in this article and have repeatedly emphasized in my articles over time that the cyclical bull market remains fully intact and should be respected with net long positions in stocks until such time that the upward trend is broken. To your point about the eventuality of market peaks, this is why I have concentrated so much time in my writing on trying to identify market peaks, for conceding that it is simply a guess as to when this will happen is simply not acceptable in my view, as market history provides us with a multitude of evidence to help identify when these major inflection points are taking place. The next peak will certainly take on its own characteristics to be sure, but behaviors in and around it will likely look and feel like all of the other peaks that have preceded it. And the higher this market floats, the greater the downside risk becomes and all the more important it is to have a plan ready for when the turn finally arrives.

    Thanks again for your comment and for raising some good points. I enjoyed reading your latest article on the Dividend Growth 50 - I own a number of names on your list - and I look forward to reading your future posts on SA in the coming year.

    Happy New Year!

    Jan 1, 2015. 09:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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