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Eric Parnell, CFA

 
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  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello Salmo,

    Another great comment. I've been exploring a topic closely related to this tonight from several different angles. The September/October period is certainly a clear market topping zone. It will be interesting to see how the next few weeks play out.

    Thanks again.
    Sep 27 12:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Thanks Skip - I appreciate it!
    Sep 27 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello Salmo trutta,

    Thanks for your comment and good point about commodities. They are already struggling at the hands of the recently strong dollar, and I agree that we could see more downside before it's all said and done. I'm keeping a particularly close eye on precious metals and oil in this regard.

    Thanks again and great points.
    Sep 27 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello The Vigilant Investor,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it. And I think your point is an important one here. While trying to short sell this market has been absolutely brutal in recent years, those that are actually able to get the timing right when the market finally peaks and starts to roll over (no easy task to be certain and not for the faint of heart given the associated risk) has the potential to realize substantial upside over an extended period of time if simply as a result of valuations reverting back to their historical mean if not something more significant to the downside like a more comprehensive cleansing. It will be interesting to see.

    Great points and thanks for your comment.
    Sep 25 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello creese,

    Thanks for your reply. I appreciate it.

    I think you raise an important point here. Although the Fed's QE is set to end soon, we are likely to see stimulus either pick up or remain ongoing from other global central banks. The timing of these liquidity injections will be different (more lumpy instead of daily), but the liquidity is likely to continue flowing in. This coupled with the fact that we remain in a slow growth/near recession global environment marked by deflation instead of inflation, and we are likely to see global long term rates remain at lower levels than what many may be expecting at this point.

    Excellent question and thanks for raising it for discussion.
    Sep 25 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello creese,

    Thanks for your reply. I appreciate it.

    I think you raise an important point here. Although the Fed's QE is set to end soon, we are likely to see stimulus either pick up or remain ongoing from other global central banks. The timing of these liquidity injections will be different (more lumpy instead of daily), but the liquidity is likely to continue flowing in. This coupled with the fact that we remain in a slow growth/near recession global environment marked by deflation instead of inflation, and we are likely to see global long term rates remain at lower levels than what many may be expecting at this point.

    Excellent question and thanks for raising it for discussion.
    Sep 25 11:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello darnoc111,

    Thanks for your comment and you raise a particularly important point that is worth further discussion. One of the points that gets very little talk is the potential that the Fed may have effectively ceded control of interest rates through its repeated QE stimulus programs. With more than $3 trillion in excess reserves held by financial institutions, we may be entering a phase where what the Fed does or does not do no longer matters as much as it once did. This will be an interesting potential development to watch as the Fed moves toward trying to tighten monetary policy further in the coming months.

    Great point. Thanks again!
    Sep 25 10:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello creese,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising some excellent points. One final point I should have added in my comment above is that if we were to experience such a correction and a subsequent rally, that it could very well mark the peak of the five plus year bull market since 2009. Once the next bear market takes hold, I suspect it could drag out longer and drop deeper than many are prepared for at this point. At the end of it all would likely be the dawn of the next secular bull market, but it may be a challenging and bumpy road to get to that point. It will be interesting to see.

    As an additional point, I am not advocating trying to time this market in either direction. Instead, my primary focus is trying to identify the eventual exit point with the willingness to be out a little early instead of late.

    And I could not agree with you more. I too long for the days when the market was not hopped up on monetary stimulus, when good news was good news and bad news was bad news, and more conservative investors were able to generate a rate of return in the 2% to 5% range with taking on very little risk. Perhaps someday we can return to such an environment through one path or another.

    Thanks again for your comment and I appreciate your points.
    Sep 25 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello Moon,

    Thanks for your comment and excellent points as always. As a point of clarification, although I believe intervention is what policy makers will do, I don't agree with it at all barring something completely getting out of control. It has been a primary source of deep and meaningful frustration that over the last several years policy makers have been insistent in trying to micro manage the economy instead of simply getting out of the way. Had the Fed stepped back and allowed the economy to gradually cleanse itself after they had stabilized the financial system in the summer of 2010, we would likely be in a far better state today. Instead, I worry that the Fed through their constant interventions has now created the potential for a far worse outcome in the coming years than what we have seen in the past. Only time will tell and it will be interesting to see.

    Thanks again Moon. I appreciate it.
    Sep 25 10:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello Argyll,

    Thanks for your comment. You raise an important point here. Many investors have become so accustomed to the stock market doing nothing other than go up, yet remain fearful of an eventual decline, that any decline whatsoever is met with alarm. Such are the conditions of a fragile market when investors react strongly to even a modest decline.

    Great point and thanks again.
    Sep 25 10:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Machines Are Breaking Down [View article]
    Hello MILESCFA,

    Thanks so much for your comment and your kind words on my article. I genuinely appreciate it!

    Thanks also for introducing a number of excellent and worthwhile ratios to monitor into the discussion. These are outstanding points and I look forward to exploring some of the specifics that you have introduced here in more detail.

    Thanks again!
    Sep 25 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Machines Are Breaking Down [View article]
    Hi Family Investor,

    Thanks for your comment and for your continued great work on Twitter @faminvestor

    Hope you are doing well!
    Sep 25 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello trustedfi,

    Thanks for your comment. While I do not share the same level of optimism about the state of the U.S. economy, I hope that you are right in your perspective, as it would imply that the long elusive sustained and robust economic recovery is still building. I also have greater concerns about valuations, particularly relative to history as well as in the context of potentially tightening monetary policy. But I also respect the counterargument on valuations, which you do well in presenting here. And I completely agree that the US is well positioned to finally reduce its dependency on foreign imports, most notably energy, which I believe will serve as a cornerstone in the next secular bull market once it finally arrives.

    Thanks again for your comment and great points.
    Sep 25 10:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello VMI02 - Thanks - I appreciate it!
    Sep 25 10:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    Hello Timmies,

    Thanks as always for your comment and for providing your usual well balanced and thoughtful perspective. You make a number of excellent points here that are worth consideration and keeping in mind.

    Thanks again and I look forward to reading your future comments.
    Sep 25 10:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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