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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • Graying Bull [View article]
    Hello TimmiesRegular,

    Thanks as always for your comment and excellent points. And to your point, I would not suggest that bonds are a safer bet at this juncture. In fact, I worry more about bonds in some respects than I do stocks. And I see value in holding cash not from a long-term perspective but instead from a short-term view to pick up some of the selected value opportunities that you have mentioned when they present themselves.

    Great points as always and thanks again.
    May 10, 2015. 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Graying Bull [View article]
    Thanks to everyone for your comments on my article. I have read everyone's comments and as always genuinely value your thoughts and perspectives.

    Thanks again!
    May 10, 2015. 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Graying Bull [View article]
    Hello swallerstein,

    Thanks for your comment and for your excellent question. The rhythm of my free articles will remain unchanged. Basically the premium author addition will enable me to share additional and more specific information and recommendations related to my investment process that I have been less inclined to share in the 'free' public setting on SA over the years. As a result, my 'free' offerings will remain the same as my 'premium' material provides something additional and different.

    Thanks again for your comment and great question.
    May 10, 2015. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Loco Gringo,

    Thanks for your comment and great point. I believe the primary reason that stock prices did not collapse in the aftermath of QE3 the same way they did after QE1 and QE2 is that during past episodes the Fed stopped the entire asset purchase program at once. What they did not seem to realize at the time but understood by the time QE3 was underway was that by stopping a $300 billion (QE1) or $600 billion (QE2) daily Treasury purchase program all at once effectively served as a massive monetary policy tightening, albeit from extremely low implied rates. The fact that they slowly tapered the QE3 program down step by step over the course of nearly a year helped smooth this transition this time around.

    But you are right that the fading macroeconomic and corporate earnings conditions that exist today have the potential to impose some meaningful downside pressure on stocks before its all said and done, particularly given the fact that the Fed remains intent at least for now to lean toward further tightening instead of reversing course toward more stimulus. It will be interesting to see.

    Thanks again - great question and points.
    May 9, 2015. 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello bbro,

    Thanks for your comment and excellent contributions as always. You make an great point about the employment situation. One point in the article that you have linked that does stand out, however, is the following:

    "These claims reflect the number of people already receiving regular unemployment checks, but they don’t account for unemployed workers who’ve exhausted benefits or stopped looking for jobs."

    Data suggests that these ranks are far larger today than they were during the post crisis period. But your point is well taken.

    Thanks again.
    May 9, 2015. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Dmath32,

    A number of analysts over time have provided different explanations to this point. Sticking with Seeking Alpha, Colin Lokey before he joined the SA staff did a three part series walking through how QE flowed through to inflating asset prices. I've included a link to his first article in the series below if you are interested in taking a look.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Given that the Fed has explicitly stated that encouraging higher equity prices in order to generate a "wealth effect" is a key objective associated with its QE programs and we have seen the high correlation between the two play out in an applied setting over the past six years further supports the notion that the two are highly interconnected.

    Great question and thanks again.
    May 9, 2015. 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Alan,

    Thanks as always for your excellent comments. I hope that you are doing well!

    You hit on a key point that has almost become comical in the current environment. So we have a lousy jobs report where not only did the latest monthly number fall short of expectations but the previous month was revised lower. And despite the fact that the Fed signaled almost immediately after the report that they were unfazed and remain on track to raise rates, capital markets across the board celebrate despite already high valuations under the notion that the stimulus programs that have failed to succeed in reviving sustained economic growth are likely to continue a little bit longer than expected. These are certainly amazing times we live in today!

    Thanks again Alan. Have a great day and I look forward to talking again soon.
    May 9, 2015. 07:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Just Some Guy - Thanks for your kind words and your very good point about mean reversion after an initial drop in and around the start of these QE programs. This is an excellent point.

    Thanks again
    May 9, 2015. 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello David,

    Thanks for your comment - you are reading my mind with your question, as this is a topic that am currently exploring for an upcoming article that I hope to post soon.

    Thanks again.
    May 9, 2015. 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Mitch,

    Thanks for your comment. And you're right, positioning in directly German bunds has its challenges, particularly on the short side.

    Thanks again!
    May 9, 2015. 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it!
    May 8, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    This is a great point! To your point, Japan has been up to QE for years before the financial crisis, and it can be seen how well it's worked there too in generating sustained economic growth.

    Thanks again!
    May 8, 2015. 11:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello tunaman4u2,

    Thanks for your great comment. It has amazed me how every year since 2010 we have heard how the economic recovery is either coming "later this year" or "early next year" only to never materialize, yet the market continues to respond to it. As the saying goes, fool me once . . . although I'm not sure what goes after fool me six times!

    Thanks again for your comment!
    May 8, 2015. 10:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello jj1937,

    Thanks for your comment. To your point, stocks going up in a straight line is certainly not a sign of market health, as it demonstrates that stocks are lacking a normal reaction to both good and bad news. It is the equivalent of the doctor testing reflexes with the rubber mallet and the leg not moving. If markets were moving down in a similar fashion, it would be most alarming.

    Thanks again for your comment and great point.
    May 8, 2015. 09:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Michael,

    Thanks as always for your comment. I hope that you are doing well. And you are absolutely correct - it will be interesting to see the long-term effects that will result from these ongoing policies.

    Thanks again!
    May 8, 2015. 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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