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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Alan,

    Thanks as always for your excellent comments. I hope that you are doing well!

    You hit on a key point that has almost become comical in the current environment. So we have a lousy jobs report where not only did the latest monthly number fall short of expectations but the previous month was revised lower. And despite the fact that the Fed signaled almost immediately after the report that they were unfazed and remain on track to raise rates, capital markets across the board celebrate despite already high valuations under the notion that the stimulus programs that have failed to succeed in reviving sustained economic growth are likely to continue a little bit longer than expected. These are certainly amazing times we live in today!

    Thanks again Alan. Have a great day and I look forward to talking again soon.
    May 9, 2015. 07:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Just Some Guy - Thanks for your kind words and your very good point about mean reversion after an initial drop in and around the start of these QE programs. This is an excellent point.

    Thanks again
    May 9, 2015. 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello David,

    Thanks for your comment - you are reading my mind with your question, as this is a topic that am currently exploring for an upcoming article that I hope to post soon.

    Thanks again.
    May 9, 2015. 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Mitch,

    Thanks for your comment. And you're right, positioning in directly German bunds has its challenges, particularly on the short side.

    Thanks again!
    May 9, 2015. 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it!
    May 8, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    This is a great point! To your point, Japan has been up to QE for years before the financial crisis, and it can be seen how well it's worked there too in generating sustained economic growth.

    Thanks again!
    May 8, 2015. 11:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello tunaman4u2,

    Thanks for your great comment. It has amazed me how every year since 2010 we have heard how the economic recovery is either coming "later this year" or "early next year" only to never materialize, yet the market continues to respond to it. As the saying goes, fool me once . . . although I'm not sure what goes after fool me six times!

    Thanks again for your comment!
    May 8, 2015. 10:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello jj1937,

    Thanks for your comment. To your point, stocks going up in a straight line is certainly not a sign of market health, as it demonstrates that stocks are lacking a normal reaction to both good and bad news. It is the equivalent of the doctor testing reflexes with the rubber mallet and the leg not moving. If markets were moving down in a similar fashion, it would be most alarming.

    Thanks again for your comment and great point.
    May 8, 2015. 09:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Michael,

    Thanks as always for your comment. I hope that you are doing well. And you are absolutely correct - it will be interesting to see the long-term effects that will result from these ongoing policies.

    Thanks again!
    May 8, 2015. 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Josh B - Once again, excellent points and observations. Thanks for your great comments!
    May 8, 2015. 08:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello Josh B - Excellent points. Well said. Thanks!
    May 8, 2015. 08:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where In The QE Have We Seen This Before? [View article]
    Hello pumpkins3,

    Thanks for your comment. I think this may have been true at one time, particularly during the early years of QE from 2009 to 2011. But as evidenced by gold and commodities prices over the last several years among other factors, it seems that it has been widely concluded at this point that QE is likely to do little in the way of moving the needle on the inflation front. This is not to say that QE won't eventually lead to inflation at some point down the road, but the market has not seemed to view it this way for some time.

    Great point and thanks for raising it.
    May 8, 2015. 08:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Madness Of Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello munibill,

    This is an excellent series of questions and are point that I plan on addressing directly in an upcoming article. Thanks for raising these points here. Using history as a guide, whether it was the financial crisis, the bursting of the tech bubble, the oil crisis in the 1970s or the stock market crash to start the Great Depression, the stock market did not plunge to the downside all at once. Even the recent drop in oil prices can be included on this list. Instead, in each case the market provided warning signals and opportunities to get out, but for those not watching for them they can easily be missed. This does not necessarily mean that you can exit at the absolute peak of the market, but enables one to continue participating to the upside and then exit without sustaining too much in the way of losses to the downside (example: if the market falls -10% after peaking at 2500 on the S&P 500 Index a year from now in providing exit confirmation, one would still be higher in value from where they are today).

    But to your point, these are unprecedented times we are operating in today, so we should all hold out the possibility that things could play out differently this time. It is for this reason in part that I hold a meaningful allocation to cash. But I consider such an outcome with no advance warnings a low probability event.

    Thanks again for your comment and great questions.
    Apr 26, 2015. 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Madness Of Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello Packer Man,

    Thanks for your comment. You raise an important point that has repeatedly dogged the bears since the calming of the financial crisis several years ago, for once it seemed that the market was set to break to the downside, monetary policy makers would intervene with yet another asset purchase program. It has been "Fed put" to the extreme. For bulls, this risk represents a reason for comfort, and for bears it continues to represent the primary downside risk from a shorting perspective.

    It has seemed that under Janet Yellen the Fed is increasingly looking to get out of the QE game and would like to raise interest rates a few quarter points to store up some dry powder for the next recession. Whether they have the luxury to actually raise rates before it's all said and done remains to be seen.

    Great points and thanks again!
    Apr 26, 2015. 08:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case For Attractive Stock Valuations [View article]
    Hello Alan,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your perspective. I also enjoyed reading your recent article on the U.S. Dollar outlook leading up to the 2016 election - a very interesting perspective.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thanks again!
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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