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Eric Parnell, CFA

 
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  • Stock Market Triple Fantasy [View article]
    Hello Maverick Trader,

    Thanks for your comment and I like the juice expression very much - I'll have to remember that one! And I agree with your positioning, as I am being very selective to the upside at this point. If things eventually break out and stabilize, there will always be positions to get long, but it will be very difficult to get out of the way if things start breaking to the downside like they did in PMs recently.

    Thanks for your comment.
    Apr 22 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Triple Fantasy [View article]
    Hello bartpr - Excellent point and I agree with your points here. Someday we will look back at the final market peak and the likely catalyst will end up being something that few ever expected. And I share your view on market drivers, as I too am most uncomfortable with a market that has risen since early last year purely on multiple expansion and in the face of fundamental deterioration. Great points.
    Apr 22 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Triple Fantasy [View article]
    Hello Amouna & Ryan Hook,

    Thanks to you both for your comments. I appreciate it and I think you have raised what is one of the most critical questions at this point. Exactly what will be the catalyst event that finally shakes the market awake and begins the final corrective phase of the secular bear market. Sometimes I agree with you Ryan that it will have to be some major game changing event. But other times I wonder if it will be like October 9, 2007 when the market just finally runs out of gas to the upside (even though it was nearly three months after things actually began to unravel in July 2007). It will be very interesting to see exactly what and when this finally all begins to play out.

    Thanks again
    Apr 22 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Triple Fantasy [View article]
    Hello Norman,

    Thanks as always for your comment. And I think your timing after 2017 for the return of more favorable and sustainable market conditions makes a good deal of sense for a variety of reasons. For I expect that by then we will have finally moved away from this persistence to paper over the problem and will have finally either chosen or will be forced to take the problem head on. It will be very interesting to see.

    Thanks again. I enjoyed your recent article on JM Smucker's and I look forward to reading your future posts.
    Apr 22 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Triple Fantasy [View article]
    Hello Michael,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it and have enjoyed reading your articles on SA. As for my commodities allocations, I have been a long-term holder of the PMs for many years now driven by the weak dollar policy and the persistence of global central banks to opt toward competitive currency devaluations to try to stimulate growth. I also view PMs as a hedge against pricing instability including both inflation and deflation, as I believe this instability will persist until policy makers finally embrace the fact that the global economy has to go through a long overdue cleansing process to form a new foundation for the next secular bull market and economic expansion. Once we enter into this phase, I will likely look to begin closing out these PM allocations, but not likely until then.

    Thanks again Michael for your comment. I look forward to reading your future posts on SA.
    Apr 22 11:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
    Hello TheeSeer,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your thoughts and perspectives. You make a number of very interesting points here that are thought provoking and important for consideration.

    I also thought the decision by Bernanke to skip Jackson Hole was notable. Perhaps it's nothing, but it will be interesting to hear more about exactly why he is not making the trip to what is one of the most important and closely watched monetary policy events of the year.

    Thanks again for your comment.
    Apr 21 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
    Hello Agbug,

    Thanks for your comment. I actually agree with you here and appreciate your raising this question to provide me with the opportunity to clarify. At this point, I don't think that a sell off in stocks would bring the retail investor back into the market, as many are already distrustful of the system. The point I was hoping to make here was that policy makers and the Fed would have been better served to have gotten out of the way of the markets a few years back and not only allow it to correct as necessary but also take the necessary steps to ensure that it would be better regulated in the future, as this approach would have likely gone much further in regaining public trust in markets. But to your point, the opportunity to make such changes has passed a long time ago now. And also to your point, any new corrections from here would only serve to reinforce this distrust at this point.

    Excellent point and thanks for raising it.
    Apr 21 11:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
    Hello Joseph,

    Thanks for your excellent comments as always. I agree with your perspective here. I also enjoyed reading your most recent article on SA (I've included a link below for readers in case they missed it) and look forward to your upcoming posts on SA.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thanks again.
    Apr 21 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
    Hello contrarianadvisor,

    Thanks for your comment and excellent points. I agree with you, Stanley and Joseph that this is a very real risk facing the market right now and going forward. And precisely to your point, if we do see a break of this nature where institutions all trigger sell signals at the exact same time, the subsequent downside in stocks could make the recent liquidation in the precious metals complex look very mild in comparison. This is a topic that I wrote about a few days ago in a recent article. I've included a link just in case.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Great comment. Thanks again.
    Apr 21 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
    Hello vraykin,

    Thanks for your comment and for your question. I appreciate it and you are actually reading my mind, as the question that you've raised here is actually the focus of an article I hope to submit for publication sometime this week.

    I am interested in some of the names that you are focused on and the approach that you are taking. If you have the opportunity and are willing, please let me know.

    Thanks again.
    Apr 21 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
    Hello uncensored patriot - Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it!
    Apr 21 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
    Hello Stanley,

    Thanks for your comments both here as well as on my other recent articles. I always enjoy reading your commentary and perspectives. And I believe that your conclusions are correct that market forces will prevail in the end, as any efforts to influence capital markets can only be sustained for so long until underlying fundamentals finally take over. And to your point, once this break finally occurs, the subsequent downside could be quite significant.

    Excellent points as always. Thanks again.
    Apr 21 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
    Hello animalspirits,

    Thanks for your comment. This is an important point that the seemingly endless flow of liquidity from global central banks over the last several years have distorted financial markets to the point where it has compromised the effectiveness of both fundamental and technical analysis to a meaningful degree, which is problematic from a health of the markets standpoint.

    Great point. Thanks again.
    Apr 21 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
    Hello tampat,

    Thanks for your comment and for making this very important observation. One of the things that has been troublesome about the rally over the last several months is the fact that momentum and relative strength have been fading not only for the market as a whole but most of the sub-components that make up the market. And to your point, this does not bode well at all from a technical standpoint for the sustainability of the recovery much longer unless these readings suddenly start to reaccelerate.

    Excellent point. Thanks again.
    Apr 21 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Risk Of Stock Liquidation [View article]
    Hello thucydides123,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising an excellent point. You are absolutely right that this is a very possible outcome that increased commodities supplies is leading to an environment of sustainably lower input costs, which would not only keep inflationary pressures in check but would also be supportive of increased corporate profit margins and higher profitability. This, of course, would be supportive of higher stock prices.

    So I absolutely agree that the scenario that you've described here is definitely a possible outcome. I suppose the keys to it playing out in a sustainable way is that global economic growth accelerates while all of the liquidity that's been pumped into the financial system does not spill over into commodities markets and commodities producers do not pull back on supplies due to prices falling below cost of production. This will be something that will be interested to see how it develops in the coming quarters.

    Outstanding points as always. Thanks again and I hope you are doing well.
    Apr 18 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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