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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • Crisis Watch - Where Lightning Could Strike Next [View article]
    Hi Buyandhold,

    Thanks as always for your comment and for sharing your perspective. You have your thought process exactly right. Knowing that it is a marketplace, the market of stocks is probably one of the only places where customers panic when prices go on sale and celebrate when prices are marked up. Knowing that investment is something that should have a multi year time horizon associated with it, one would think that investors should celebrate during those times when prices go on sale, particularly when it's a clearance event! For as long as the underlying long-term fundamentals remain intact, these are the best times to buy.

    Great points as always. Thanks again.
    Jul 25, 2015. 09:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis Watch - Where Lightning Could Strike Next [View article]
    Hi Andrew - Great points along with those made above about the rising risks in the muni bond market. These are problems that are likely to get worse before they get better. And as someone who is also long U.S. Treasuries, I share your thinking in terms of positioning too. Thanks again.
    Jul 25, 2015. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis Watch - Where Lightning Could Strike Next [View article]
    Hello Timmies - Excellent points as always. Thanks for sharing your latest thoughts and perspectives. Always insightful.
    Jul 25, 2015. 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis Watch - Where Lightning Could Strike Next [View article]
    Hi madhuriD - Great question. I almost included India here but am planning a separate article specifically focused on India given its somewhat different path from the others discussed here. Great point!
    Jul 25, 2015. 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis Watch - Where Lightning Could Strike Next [View article]
    Hi RV - Your comment has actually inspired content for a new article on SA. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and perspectives. Very interesting points.
    Jul 25, 2015. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part I: Policy Paradox [View article]
    Hi Moon - Great points as always. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and perspectives here on my article. I hope you are doing well.
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part I: Policy Paradox [View article]
    Hi Timberwolf - I've enjoyed reading your analysis on SA. In particular, I thought your recent post on Snyder's Lance was well done. I look forward to reading your future posts.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    As for your points, I'll respond to each in order.

    1.) I completely agree that the next generation problems are not unique to the Euro Zone. This is a topic that I have discussed repeatedly in previous articles, but opted not to include these points here given that these articles are more Europe focused. But I agree with your points completely on this one.

    2.) I do not state that the debt-to-GDP ratio at 92% is unsustainable. Instead, I state that is has moved above a threshold that research conducted by Reinhart and Rogoff suggests leads to sharply lower growth rates. And I'm also not suggesting that the academic debate is so decided, for by specifically offering up Reinhart and Rogoff I leave open the fact that others academics may have a different view on the topic (I do not presume that Reinhart and Rogoff are by any means making a statement of fact, as it is simply a conclusion of their research). And once again to your point, I feel no better about the debt-to-GDP ratio in the US or Japan - I worry even more about the debt situation in China for that matter - but since this an article focused specifically on the Euro Zone, I opted not to focus on these areas so as to not become any more verbose than I already am.

    Thanks again for your comment and for raising some good challenges. I appreciate your perspective.
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part I: Policy Paradox [View article]
    Hi Michael - Thanks as always for your comment. Hope you are doing well. And I think you are absolutely right that many in Britain may now be looking back with relief that they did not end up as part of the experiment. It will be interesting to see how events unfold leading up to the referendum in the UK on continuing its European Union membership. The fact that they are even planning to hold a referendum is telling in and of itself.

    Thanks again Michael. I look forward to exchanging ideas with you again soon.
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part I: Policy Paradox [View article]
    Hi tallguyz - I share your concern that if European policy makers continue down this path that it may eventually lead to social unrest, the rise of political extremism and potentially even outright conflict. Hopefully it does not come to that and either growth finally returns to the region or an alternative path is finally undertaken, but the way things have unfolded thus far in the eight years since the outbreak of the financial crisis have been troubling.
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part I: Policy Paradox [View article]
    Hi thrillmn - Excellent point. If policy makers across the region continue to persist on the same road, the long-term survival of the euro currency may eventually come into serious doubt. It will be interesting to see. Thanks.
    Jul 16, 2015. 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part I: Policy Paradox [View article]
    Hi Timmies - Thanks for your great commentary and excellent points as always. Great point on the influence of shale in the recent growth trajectory, I will dig into the numbers on this one. And your point about debt is absolutely spot on - the fact that policy makers continue under the delusion that a debt problem can be solved by piling on more debt is troubling, particularly as the problem continues to compound with each passing year.

    Thanks again.
    Jul 16, 2015. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part I: Policy Paradox [View article]
    Hi Alan - Thanks as always for your great observations. I hope you are doing well. And your point is a good one about the disconnect that exists between the various countries that happen to share the same monetary policy and currency for better or for worse. Unfortunately, the problem that has once again been deferred to a later date promises to be even bigger than it is today. It should be interesting to see how this all plays out.

    Thanks again.
    Jul 16, 2015. 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • European Disunion, Part I: Policy Paradox [View article]
    Hi dieuwer - Good points. One of the aspects that has served as a drag on growth for the Euro Zone in the years after the financial crisis is that they were left with a euro currency that remained consistently strong relative to the rest of the world that was moving more aggressively to weaken their currencies. To your point, it is one of the challenges of a currency union where fiscal policies have remained still largely independent for much of its existence.
    Jul 16, 2015. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Born On The Fifth Of July [View article]
    Thanks Obi-Wan. I appreciate it and agree that while we may see some short-term bounces along the way, that this is going to take some time to sort itself out including China. Great points as always. Thanks again.
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Born On The Fifth Of July [View article]
    Hi Alan - Thanks for your second comment. And I share your concern about the people living in Greece. It is sad some of the individual stories that are coming out of the country. And unfortunately, conditions are likely to get worse before they get better. Thanks again.
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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