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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • Market Outlook: Trouble Down On The Farm [View article]
    Hello bartpr,

    Thanks as always for your comment. While I strongly supported QE1 as absolutely necessary to save the global economy from total collapse, I have been against everything that has taken place from QE2 forward for the reason you have cited here and many more. I believe these policies by the Fed were well intended, but may have served to prolong the final correction process in the end.

    Thanks again.
    Jul 16, 2013. 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: Trouble Down On The Farm [View article]
    Hello Nate,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your perspective. You make a number of good points here and I agree with you completely on ZIRP, as this is likely in place until 2015, but I'm not so sure about QE3. We'll probably know a lot more over the next few days, but I think it is a strong possibility that the Treasury purchases associated with QE3 could be finished by the end of the year and MBS purchases by mid 2014. It will be interesting to see. As for the market outlook, I believe the potential is rising that we could eventually enter an extended bear market correction sometime over the next 12 months as the markets go through the final cleansing process that will finally bring us to the beginning of the next secular bull market. Such a correction could last 1 to 2 years if not longer, but whether it happens sooner or later will depend on what policy makers allow to play out, which is why Bernanke's testimony tomorrow will be important to watch. But you are absolutely right, I am bullish on the U.S. economy and the markets 3-5 years out. My primary concern is the path we may be taking to get to this longer term outlook.

    Great points. Thanks again.
    Jul 16, 2013. 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 23............  [View instapost]
    Thanks tampat. I appreciate it and always enjoy reading your comments and perspectives. And I agree with you completely on your point about technology in particular.

    Thanks again
    Jul 14, 2013. 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 24............  [View instapost]
    Hello WMARKW,

    I will definitely be interested to hear your on the ground perspective on the precious metals in Hong Kong. Have a safe trip!
    Jul 14, 2013. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 24............  [View instapost]
    Hello IT & Fear&Greedtrader,

    Thanks for your comment and your kind words on my article. I appreciate it very much, as I value and respect both of your opinions a great deal.

    Thanks again.
    Jul 14, 2013. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 23............  [View instapost]
    Hello Tack,

    Great comment. First, thanks for sharing your thoughts on The Disappearing Spoon. My wife and I were talking about this book the other day as a possible read and we may look to buy it on your recommendation. Sounds fascinating.

    I also agree with you 100% about the long-term view that you expressed in your article. Although I have been generally bearish on the economy and markets, I consider this a short-term view brought about by the unwillingness of policy makers to allow the capital system to go through its necessary adjustments so that it can move on to its next growth phase. I am a very strong believer in the human instinct to adapt and innovate, and just as the last 100 years has brought a tremendous amount of progress and innovation, I am even more excited about what is likely to come over the next 50 to 100 years, as the growth potential is tremendous both in the U.S. and around the world in markets like energy, manufacturing, health care, technology and communications. This is why I continue to anticipate getting the current challenges behind us and take on the final cleansing so that we can move on to the next great growth phase.

    Outstanding points as always.
    Jul 14, 2013. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Hello Marcelgi,

    Thanks for your comment. And I think your thoughts make a great deal of sense. With a change in tone toward tightening from the PBoC and no longer easing from the Fed, which has led to tightening in the form of higher borrowing rates for mortgages, etc., this is likely to create a gradually increasing drag for stocks in the coming months. Topping patterns in markets take a great deal of time to play out - for example, while March 2000 is widely cited as the tech bubble peak, the correction really did not get started until September 2000 as markets nearly regained their March highs several months later - but I think we are in the very early stages of such a topping pattern at this point. Of course, this will all depend on the resolve of global central bankers to discipline in the end. It will be interesting to see.

    Thanks again
    Jul 10, 2013. 08:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Hello Qniform,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing the Fitch Ratings link. I think you make a number of good points here, particularly as it relates to asset class positioning. And I think that you are exactly right that markets are likely to be driven back and forth in the coming months depending on how assertive the PBoC decides to be. But they clearly seem to want to address the imbalances their economy is facing sooner rather than later. I hope they stick with this approach, as it will head off bigger problems down the road. Great points.

    Thanks again.
    Jul 10, 2013. 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Hello 1sd,

    Thanks for your comment and very good point. And I think the longer that policy makers wait for markets to enforced political will, the more turbulent the ultimate transition becomes.

    Great point. Thanks again.
    Jul 10, 2013. 07:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Hello Mr. Bear - Thanks for your comment and I completely agree with your perspectives. Well said.
    Jul 10, 2013. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Hello IT,

    Thanks for your comment. You are right that I'm currently getting myself back up to pace on SA after a brief hiatus over the last few weeks, as I have been tending to other work related responsibilities. I stopped by your Instablog earlier this evening and plan on joining the discussion more soon.

    Thanks again and I hope that you are doing well and enjoying the summer so far. I look forward to talking with you more soon.
    Jul 10, 2013. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Hello macombet,

    Great point in your comment. I find it comical the continually euphoric reactions to what have been generally uninspiring jobs numbers in the aftermath of the financial crisis. We need to be seeing consistent +200K to +300K job gains at least to even begin drumming up real excitement about economic prospects. And these jobs need to be of the higher quality full time variety instead of the lower quality part time positions that have dominated these overrated employment reports over the last few years.

    Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.
    Jul 10, 2013. 12:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Hello Ted,

    Thanks for your comment. I believe you and I are on the same page. I am largely in cash at the moment for the reasons that you have mentioned, as I am currently viewing cash as the best hedge against what continue to be unpredictable markets. And the selected stock positions that I currently own are with a very short-term focus and extremely tight technical parameters.

    Your comment alludes to an important point that often gets overlooked in the media. Just because a market is unexpectedly going up does not mean that it is any better or healthier than a market than is unexpectedly going down. To your point, this is part of what makes times like today particularly dangerous.

    Thanks again.
    Jul 10, 2013. 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Hello ctjaeger - This is an excellent point. Holding Treasuries in an ETF should be viewed differently than holding the actual bonds. I use the ETFs for tactical price appreciation and at present I view the short-term price volatility associated with holding Treasuries to be far greater than what most investors may historically be accustomed to.

    Great point.
    Jul 10, 2013. 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook: The Game Has Changed [View article]
    Hello 13761362,

    Thanks for your comment and you are reading my mind with your question. In the coming weeks, I plan on digging deeper into each of the asset classes and exploring the opportunities and risks. As for Treasuries, I am looking for one of two outcomes, as they continue to linger in limbo at the moment. Focusing on the 10-year Treasury yield, either a push higher into the 3% to 3.25% range or a decisive move lower back below 2.4% are both outcomes that would provide potential reentry points to consider for Treasury positions, as I continue to remain constructive on the category from a fundamental perspective. In the meantime, I share your view that standing on the sidelines and allowing things to play out is the best approach from a risk control standpoint.

    Thanks again.
    Jul 10, 2013. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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