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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello Stanley,

    Thanks for your comment and your very good points. It wouldn't surprise me to see a shift in liquidity preference away from stocks and into precious metals at some point, but it appears that the industrial metals have been left out of the QE party this time around, for their time to rally was in the early innings along with stocks. But to your point, I also would not put anything past monetary policy makers at this point. A part of me is still incredulous that they went ahead with QE2 back in 2010, so at this point nothing would shock me.

    Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello the chaser,

    Thanks for your comment and great points as always. I too have been increasingly scaling back stock positions and moving to the sidelines at least until this Cyprus situation has had some time to play out. And remaining stock positions are focused on quality and low volatility.

    To your point, I remain frustrated about the extend of government involvement in influencing capital markets. It only adds to the risks in the end because prices are not able to move toward their natural equilibrium. And even the potential for situations like we are seeing unfold in Cyprus are unsettling to an entirely different degree.

    Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello Joefed,

    Thanks for your comment and questions. This is based on the fact that GDP growth has been in a slowing trend since late 2011 and posted an increase of only +0.1% for 2012 Q4. As for consensus 2013 Q1 forecasts, I place little value in these projections at this point. To this point, forecasts were as high as +3% for 2012 Q4 heading into the quarter and were still as high as +1.5% by January 2013 before the first Q4 GDP numbers were finally released at a -0.1%.

    With all of this being said, I hope these consensus forecasts prove correct, as some domestic growth would be great right about now!

    Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello thucydides123,

    Thanks as always for your great commentary. You raise a number of excellent points and questions here. I think you make a particularly good point about Grillo, as the situation in Cyprus only adds fuel to the fire to those that want to enact movement style change in Europe. This has the potential to become a real mess and quickly. The next few days are going to be extremely interesting and will have a major impact on all asset classes when it's all said and done.

    I hope you are doing well. Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello Chimpster,

    Thanks for your comment. You've raised some good questions here. I absolutely think that the slow down in China is weighing on copper prices, and I think this is already having spillover effects into the U.S. and global economy. The only question is how long before this starts showing up in U.S. equity prices. Even if the Cyprus situation stabilizes, it's only a matter of time. And to your point, the strong dollar is certainly not helping copper either, but I believe the dollar is strengthening not because of a pro U.S. view but instead on more of a safe haven move, which also has the potential to eventually weigh on U.S. stocks.

    Great questions. Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello smallfishbigpond,

    Thanks for your comment and I agree. Unfortunately for policy makers, the idea of taxing deposits is now out of the bottle and they won't be able to get it back in without a great deal of effort and time. It will be very interesting to see how the next few weeks unfold, particularly in places like Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal if things start to destabilize in Cyprus.

    Great point. Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello jimmy46,

    Thanks for your comment and you make some very good points. But I agree with GHargis in his reply that the shift of focus to return of capital can make +0.1% on savings look attractive if things start falling apart again in risk markets.

    With that being said, your counterpoint is a good one and is well taken.

    Thanks again for sharing your perspective.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello Unsure Now,

    Thanks for your comments. It has been interesting to watch the precious metals over the last few days in the wake of the Cyprus news. It definitely seems like a lot of big weight is being applied to try and tame these prices from going higher, but they appear to be slowly working through these price levels, at least in the case of gold. The PM markets currently have a late July/early August 2012 look and feel to them at the moment. And if the situation in Cyprus continues to unravel, it will be hard to keep the PMs down too much longer. It will be interesting to see.

    Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello basehitz - Thanks for your comment and your outstanding insights as always. I appreciate it.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello byloe n. selheigh - Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it! Great SA name as well! Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello BORNAGAIN2007 - Thanks for your comment and I agree. Until we are on a path of sustained economic growth at the same time that global central banks are withdrawing stimulus, the situation will remain unstable.

    Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello pemdas1,

    Thanks for your comment and for making some excellent points. I believe that China is continuing to have a big influence on the direction in copper prices. And if government officials remain inclined toward trying to cool the housing market and taking steps to curb inflationary pressures, this is not only bearish for copper but also for global asset prices including U.S. stocks in the end. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out, particularly as the new leadership in Beijing gets settled in.

    Great points. Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Strange Case Of Dr. Copper And Mr. Market [View article]
    Hello tuliptown,

    Thanks for your comment. This is an excellent question, for it has certainly been a challenging time for gold and silver in recent weeks. As you mentioned there is a great deal of support in the $26 to $28 for SLV, and it appears that momentum is building to the upside. But if it does break decisively below the $25 range, a move to $20 would likely come in short order. Although I remain strongly inclined to the upside with silver, a move lower cannot be ruled out although it still has a solid cushion above these final support levels at present.

    Thanks again.
    Mar 19, 2013. 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Canary In The Stock Market Coal Mine [View article]
    Hello the chaser,

    Thanks as always for your comment. And thanks for introducing the Cyprus story to the discussion. The way this situation is playing out is simply amazing. Piercing the depositor threshold and dipping into customer accounts to the tune of 10% without any advance warning is beyond comprehension. These are the actions that can quickly spark a crisis of confidence. It will be interesting to see how markets react to this latest development. Of course in our QE drunk world, maybe they'll completely ignore it.

    Thanks again.
    Mar 16, 2013. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Canary In The Stock Market Coal Mine [View article]
    Hello treyanas,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising these points that allow me to elaborate a bit more on my current perspectives. In response to the two scenarios that you have put forth here, I am unequivocally in the former camp and not in the latter. I believe the potential for a correction is increasing the further the market continues on its relentless ascent, but I also recognize that under its current influences that it could continue rising beyond comprehension into the stratosphere. And given that I run an absolute returns hedged investment strategy, most of the adjustments that I am making in my current portfolio allocation are at the margins. My primary point in showing the Apple vs. S&P 500 correlation is not necessarily to suggest that the market is going to follow the same path. Instead, it is designed to show that markets and securities have the tendency to move in cycles of similar duration and relative magnitude over time and that sharp corrections can come at the point where it seems nothing could possibly go wrong.

    Thanks again for your comment and for raising this challenge. I appreciate it.
    Mar 16, 2013. 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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