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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • Upon Stocks A Little Rain Must Fall [View article]
    Hello thucydides123,

    Thanks for your comment. I hope everything is going well with you.

    You make a great point on the Dazed and Confused line. I completely agree and actually considered working this into the article as well when I was writing it.

    I also completely agree with you on the North American oil and gas theme for the long-term. I have been very positive on this theme for some time, although actually trying to allocate to it as an investment theme has been frustratingly elusive to this point, as the persistent pain that lingers across many areas of this market continues to keep me away for now. I have a roster of names that I hope to own someday for the long-term, but in the meantime they remain on the watch list.

    Thanks again and best of luck to you as well. The next few weeks should prove interesting.
    Mar 13, 2013. 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upon Stocks A Little Rain Must Fall [View article]
    Hello basehitz - Thanks as always for your comment. I always enjoy reading your well expressed views. Thanks again.
    Mar 13, 2013. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upon Stocks A Little Rain Must Fall [View article]
    Hello thechaser,

    Thanks for your comment here as well as the one above. I appreciate it. Thanks also for sharing your perspectives and your latest portfolio positioning. Exploring a point in your comment, are you positioned in TLT, or are you simply using it as a sentiment indicator? I'm interested in your perspective on this point.

    Thanks again.
    Mar 13, 2013. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upon Stocks A Little Rain Must Fall [View article]
    Hello Lawrence,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your excellent insights on my article. These are outstanding points and I am glad that you raised them here.

    I have thoroughly enjoyed reading your articles on SA over the last month. Truly some outstanding insights and perspectives. I thought your latest article in particular on the employment report was absolutely spot on.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thanks again Lawrence. I look forward to reading your upcoming articles on SA.
    Mar 13, 2013. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upon Stocks A Little Rain Must Fall [View article]
    Hello Emmet,

    Thanks as always for your comment and for mentioning some of your recent articles on these topics. I have enjoyed your articles a great deal on these topics as well as commodities, as your perspectives are very insightful and you approach things from a variety of fresh angles I've included links here for readers just in case.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thanks again Emmet. I hope everything is going well.
    Mar 12, 2013. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upon Stocks A Little Rain Must Fall [View article]
    Hello FreeStateYank - Thanks for your comment. I've found myself working to the Zeppelin catalog this evening after writing this article - Rain Song is one of my particular favorites from back in the day. Thanks again.
    Mar 12, 2013. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upon Stocks A Little Rain Must Fall [View article]
    Hello bd4uandu - Thanks as always for your comment. I appreciate it!
    Mar 12, 2013. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upon Stocks A Little Rain Must Fall [View article]
    Hello Abegaz,

    I appreciate your comments both here and on other articles. You raise a number of good points and it is always good to challenge a certain perspective, particularly when it seems that it is becoming conventional thinking.

    To your first point, I have been writing extensively over the last several years on SA on the high correlation between balance sheet trends at the U.S. Federal Reserve and stock prices. I've included a link here to a more recent installment on this topic. Perhaps it is all correlation without causation, but if it is so it is an extraordinarily ongoing coincidence.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    As for how the Fed liquidity actually leaks its way into asset markets including stocks, you are correct that there are a number of competing theories. One such viewpoint that is worth exploring is Colin Lokey, who has written some excellent articles on SA that go into extensive detail on this very topic. I have included links to his three part series on this very topic.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I do completely agree with you on a related point. While conventional wisdom holds that QE actually serves to hold down Treasury yields, historical evidence suggests that the exact opposite may be true. I have included a link to a recent article that expands on this point.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Regarding your point about "what matters is bottom line corporate revenue and distributions to shareholders, company values, growth in the business and dividends or EPS", I am interested in your perspectives on this particular point. Specifically, how are you currently reconciling the fact that the stock market is steadily rising despite the fact that global economic growth is decelerating with recession already underway in many regions, corporate revenues are slowing and year-over-year earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters? I am interested in understanding your views on this point. Thanks.

    With all of this being said, I genuinely hope that you are right and I am wrong in the end. For this means that we have truly returned to an environment where markets are no longer distorted by extraordinary government intervention and fundamental decision making is once again driving investment markets. And if you are right, we can look forward to better times ahead, which is good for everyone involved. I remain genuinely skeptical that we have reached this point in the cycle, but I hope that yours is the truth in the end. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

    Thanks again for your comments.
    Mar 12, 2013. 11:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upon Stocks A Little Rain Must Fall [View article]
    Hello FTFirst,

    Thanks for your comment. These are excellent questions. I will look to explore these questions in more detail, but the one thing that I can say is where these money flows are not coming from at least where stocks are concerned, which is the retail investor. I wrote an article on this topic about a month ago and have included a link below just in case.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Great questions. Thanks again.
    Mar 12, 2013. 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Fiscal Policy: Highly 'Sequestionable' [View article]
    Hello pdtor,

    Thanks as always for your comment. I hope everything is going well with you.

    I agree with your point about the need for leadership in Washington on both sides of the aisle. And in the role as elected leader of the country, it needs to start with the President regardless of party affiliation Democrat, GOP or otherwise. It would be a confidence builder in an of itself if we had more collective action and less blaming back and forth on a ongoing policy road to nowhere. I understand why they are doing it, but it is most counterproductive.

    Great points as always. Thanks again.

    Mar 2, 2013. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Fiscal Policy: Highly 'Sequestionable' [View article]
    Hello BORNAGAIN2007,

    Thanks for your comment and your very nice words about my articles. I appreciate it.

    I think you've hit on the key point at the core of it all. Everyone knows that we are slowly drifting toward a major problem, yet policy makers cannot seem to come together to gain any traction in finally trying to fix it. And by the time they are finally forced to take action, the problem is bound to be considerably worse and the pain associated with the transition all the more profound. In the meantime, we are left to watch policy makers wring their hands over changes at the margin when the real issues reside at the core.

    Great point. And thanks to bd4uandu for the Titanic II link - very interesting.

    Thanks again
    Mar 2, 2013. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Fiscal Policy: Highly 'Sequestionable' [View article]
    Hello bd4uandu,

    Thanks as always for your comment. I agree on PSLV, as it has a fair amount of short-term and long-term technical support down at these levels. It will be interesting to see how much longer the PM space gets pounded down, but the long-term fundamentals continue to look favorable. And QE has typically treated PMs well after initial weakness in the early months.

    Thanks again for your comment.
    Mar 1, 2013. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Fiscal Policy: Highly 'Sequestionable' [View article]
    Hello Trader_Phil,

    I think you make a great point and this is one of the reasons why I think it is particularly important that we see a formal budget from Washington this year. Given the fiscal problems that the country is facing, politicians need to be on the record for exactly the spending that they are supporting. It will be interesting to see in the coming months if we finally get a final and approved budget for this year.

    Thanks again.
    Mar 1, 2013. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Fiscal Policy: Highly 'Sequestionable' [View article]
    Hello tampat,

    Thanks for your comment. And I think you hit on the key obstacle that will continuously prevent anything of real substance getting changed. Many elected officials in Washington are beholden to those groups that have provided the most support along the way. And this influence gets in the way of sound and efficient decision making. Until this framework is fundamentally changed, it will be difficult for any meaningful change to be enacted in Washington. Unless of course a crisis scenario simply demands action.

    Thanks again.
    Mar 1, 2013. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Fiscal Policy: Highly 'Sequestionable' [View article]
    Hello think23606,

    Thanks for your comment. This is a great analogy and I think you also hit on a great point about the inability of the government to say "no" when sometimes it should.

    Great points. Thanks again.
    Mar 1, 2013. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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