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Eric Parnell, CFA  

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  • Escape Strategies For When The Stock Market Starts To Burn [View article]
    Hello Buyandhold 2012,

    Thanks for your comment and you make an excellent point. If we do experience another sustained correction in investment markets as we did in 2000-2002 and 2007-2008, it is likely to provide the opportunity to pick up top quality names at discounted prices. Given the idea that any third correction would likely represent the final cleansing phase ahead of the next secular bull market, such a strategy may be very productive from a long-term perspective.

    Great point. Thanks again.
    May 13, 2013. 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Escape Strategies For When The Stock Market Starts To Burn [View article]
    Hello Ted,

    Thanks for your comment. You make an excellent point with which I agree. Sometimes holding cash and protecting against the risk of a precipitous decline is the most prudent approach.

    Great point. Thanks again.
    May 13, 2013. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Escape Strategies For When The Stock Market Starts To Burn [View article]
    Hello socksycat,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it and you raise a great question in particular about CSCO. You are absolutely right that Cisco has been trading in a sideways channel for over a year now with $20.25 marking a well tested floor and $21.75 the ceiling. You are absolutely right that it is continuing in this predictable pattern and it has been promising that it managed to break out above its 50-day M.A. that had been holding it back over the past month. With this being said, I will be watching the technical set up closely if the price moves above $21.50 to see if it appears to have the strength to break out. If not, I may look to lock in the +7% short-term gain and wait for the return to $20.25 to reenter, but it would be great to see a breakout develop. It will be interesting to see. And even if it continues to trade sideways, the 3.2% dividend certainly gives it appeal to maintain the position as a hold in the current environment.

    Thanks again for your comment. I appreciate it!
    May 12, 2013. 11:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Escape Strategies For When The Stock Market Starts To Burn [View article]
    Hello IT,

    Thanks as always for your commentary and great insights. I look forward to joining in on your Instablog discussion soon as well.

    I think you raise a number of very important questions here. My preferred method for hedging against a stock market decline remains Long-Term Treasuries via the TLT and Build America Bonds via the BAB, as both have meaningful negative correlations to the stock market during corrections but have also demonstrated the ability to rise during stock rallies. Attempting to short the market outright remains too treacherous in my view given the ongoing disconnect from fundamentals. And I continue to agree with you completely on the merit of owning precious metals despite the recent challenges that the asset class has endured over the last few months. To your point, owning the physical remains the best way to maintain a long-term exposure in this regard.

    Great commentary and perspectives as always. Thanks again.
    May 12, 2013. 11:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Hello Fear&Greedtrader,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising some very good additional points suggesting that we are likely still some distance away from a major top. The fact that the recent advance is often referred to as one of the most hated rallies suggests stocks are not without future buyers at least at this point. I also watch for the TV and magazine indicators as you've mentioned, although I wonder whether the retail public is ever going to come back to the market as it is today. The distrust among the general public about the stock market seems to only be increasing as the rally continues, and fund flows continue to suggest that they are not coming back in any meaningful way. It will be interesting to see, and I agree with your point completely that if we enter such a phase that the top will most likely soon follow.

    Thanks again. Great points.
    May 10, 2013. 12:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Hello Mike,

    Thanks for your comment and I agree with your thoughts and conclusions. Having taken a look at your portfolio on your profile page, I think you are well positioned in your stock portfolio for whatever lies ahead.

    Thanks again.
    May 10, 2013. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Hello Rock_nj,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your experience with the 2000 and 2007 bubbles both here and below. I think the 2000 bubble was in many ways the most perplexing of the three, as indicators were upside down for so long and valuations had stretched to such unbelievable extremes before the stock market finally gave in. Despite all of the underlying instabilities today, I would contend that markets have made good progress, things are healthier today than they were then and that we are one final major cleansing away before the beginning of a new secular bull market. The key is getting through this final stretch, which will become increasingly complicated the more global central banks go on like this. It will be interesting to see.

    Thanks again. I appreciate it!
    May 10, 2013. 12:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Hello Chimpster,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it and I think you've raised the most important question of all. This is one that I think about in the back of my mind nearly every day.

    Thanks again.
    May 10, 2013. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Hello slimjim2005007,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your thoughts. Sounds like a good plan and a nice time of year to do it. The one thing that is great about investment markets is that they will always be here whenever you decide to come back. Hopefully they will be more sane when you do.

    Enjoy the boat and thanks again.
    May 10, 2013. 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Hello Craig,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising a good follow up question. You are exactly right in your point, and it is still likely that we will see the traditional technical patterns play out as they have in the past - TheFounder astutely pointed this out below. The caveat that I was raising here was that the proliferation of HFT and central bank liquidity in recent years have caused some of these traditional technical relationships to break down at times. And if we have a computer driven shock event, it is possible that whatever the unknown outcome were that it could completely dislocate markets and move them out of reach of attempting any sustained rally toward a double top. This is an extreme low probability scenario, but one that should at least be the back of the mind given the geopolitical environment that we live in today.

    Great question. Thanks again
    May 10, 2013. 12:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Way To Hedge Against A Stock Market Decline [View article]
    Hello Kevin,

    Thanks as always for your comment. You raise an excellent point about the potential for a head and shoulders pattern forming in the TLT. And the Presidential and Congressional cycle perspectives that you have provided are very insightful and interesting. I will definitely watch how things unfold in this regard on your recommendation.

    Thanks also for your recent contributions to SA. In particular, I have enjoyed reading your recent Instablog posts.

    http://bit.ly/ZTzObn

    Thanks again. I appreciate it.
    May 10, 2013. 08:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Hello dancing diva - Thanks as always for your comment and I appreciate your kind words on my article. Thanks again and I hope that you are doing well.
    May 10, 2013. 08:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Hello PalmDesertRat,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising an excellent point with which I agree. While the underlying instabilities that could ultimately unravel the current market are distinctly different from what sparked the 2000 and 2007 corrections, I agree that the subsequent decline that followed an initial sharp correction this time around would likely be more of a sustained grind lower 2000 style instead of a catastrophic cascade 2007 style if for no other reason there is so much liquidity being pumped in by global central banks trying to prop up the system. Unfortunately, this has the potential to prolong the pain of any corrective scenario in the end. This assumes, of course, that global central banks are not forced to suddenly drain liquidity along the way.

    This is an excellent point and I agree with your view here. Thanks again.
    May 10, 2013. 08:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Way To Hedge Against A Stock Market Decline [View article]
    Hello User 11848701,

    Thanks for your comment. This is a great question. While to your point I am not recommending owning any of these ETFs today or in the near-term, a more aggressive allocation to rising rates could be established through an inverse ETF such as the TBT. Some long only choices include the FLOT or the BKLN which have floating rate bonds are also possibilities, although I suspect they may not perform as well as some are anticipating once rates begin rising. Some of the shorter duration products like SHY and HYS are also worth consideration as are some of the defined maturity products, although these would be more defensive choices rather than something to leverage a bet on higher interest rates. These are just a few of the alternatives available to position once rates appear set to rise.

    Great question. Thanks again.
    May 10, 2013. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Hello caperdory - Thanks for your comment and I agree that weekly formations usually take several months to play out. Thanks for raising and emphasizing this point.
    May 10, 2013. 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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