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Eric Parnell, CFA

 
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  • QE3 Scorecard: Winners, Losers And The Road Ahead [View article]
    Hello untrusting investor,

    Thanks as always for your comment. And you make a very good point that markets may take a decidedly different path before it's all said and done. I was concerned when writing this article that I might be over emphasizing a potential correlation equals causation argument, so it is important that you raised this point.

    While various asset classes have shown a high degree of correlation to this point that may be attributable to the forces of QE, it remains important to be careful and hedged, as this relationship could easily break down at any time for any or all asset classes.

    Great point and thanks again.
    Oct 14, 2012. 11:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3 Scorecard: Winners, Losers And The Road Ahead [View article]
    Hi Christopher,

    Thanks for your comment. You raise a great question here.

    The following link from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's website provides details indicating that MBS bond buying actually began the day after the Fed's announcement in mid-September. Although the data is blended with the Fed's ongoing MBS repurchase program, if one backs out the $6.5 billion in net MBS purchases that were occurring prior to the Fed's launch of QE3, it suggests that the Fed has carried out roughly $46 billion in MBS purchases from September 13 to October 10, which is largely in line with their stated program of $40 billion in MBS purchases per month.

    http://bit.ly/OW67mr

    Perhaps I am reading this incorrectly, so let me know if you are reading this differently.

    Thanks again for raising this point.
    Oct 14, 2012. 11:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3 Scorecard: Winners, Losers And The Road Ahead [View article]
    Hello pdtor,

    Thanks as always for your comment. You raise a number of excellent points here that make a ton of sense, particularly your points about the various risks that could stir the market and bring volatility along with it.

    You also make a particularly good point about Bernanke. Although I still think that QE should have ended for good back in 2010, one of the best elements of the decision to go all in with QE this time around is that it essentially removes any further discussion/speculation about future Fed actions from the table. This way, he can act behind the scenes by turning the dials while the focus instead will fall on fiscal policy makers, where the real action (not spending, but regulatory change) is long overdue at this point.

    Excellent points as always. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and perspectives.
    Oct 14, 2012. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Crunch Time For The Stock Market [View article]
    Hello Manuel Blay,

    Thanks for your comment. As usual, you raise a number of excellent points on Dow Theory and I have enjoyed reading the recent posts on the Dow Theory Investment website. Thanks as always for your thoughts and perspectives.
    Oct 12, 2012. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Crunch Time For The Stock Market [View article]
    Hello Interesting Times,

    Thanks for your comment and excellent point in particular on silver. I agree with you completely and am particularly bullish on silver, which has shown the ability to outperform the stock market by 2x to 4x during past rounds of balance sheet expanding monetary stimulus. I expanded on this point in a recent article from August 18.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I also agree that the physical is preferable to owning securities. With that being said, for those that require the liquidity of a security that trades on an exchange, I think the Central Fund of Canada and the Sprott's Physical Silver represent the best alternatives.

    Great comment. Thanks again.
    Oct 12, 2012. 11:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Crunch Time For The Stock Market [View article]
    Hello drreece,

    You make a number of excellent points here. Your long-term technical trend points are very interesting - I will take a look back at your previous comments to learn more. You also make good points on stocks and gold versus bond and cash and your rundown by asset class is very interesting.

    Quick question - I particularly agree with your points on farmland and food. How are you allocating to these asset classes? I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

    Thanks again.
    Oct 12, 2012. 11:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Crunch Time For The Stock Market [View article]
    Hello pigdog67,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your positioning in the current market environment. The TWM allocation has certainly paid off over the last several weeks since the Fed announcement. It will be interesting to see how it performs from here given that it has now reached its 50-day M.A. And although AAPL has certainly taken a hit recently, your position has definitely been rewarded in the months leading up to this point.

    Great calls. Thanks again for your comment.
    Oct 12, 2012. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Crunch Time For The Stock Market [View article]
    Hello DrPanek,

    Thanks for your comment and for raising a variety of good questions. I'll try to answer each in order. The reference to a healthy break is focused on the fact that the market got a bit ahead of itself from a technical perspective following the Fed announcement. As a result, the recent pullback has provided a more solid technical foundation to make the next move higher. As for the comment about a "melt up", this is a reference to the way that the stock market has gone up a vast majority of trading days with little volatility during past QE phases. The following articles on SA expand on this point.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    As for your last point, you may very well be right that the recent pullback has been a result of the weakening global economy. I actually hope that you are correct, as it would imply that the stock market is finally returning to some semblance of fundamentals, which would be healthy.

    Great questions and thanks for your comment.
    Oct 12, 2012. 11:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Fallout From The Welch Jobs Debate [View article]
    Hello untrusting investor,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it.

    Thanks also for the very interesting read from CNBC Tech Edge. This provides great insights into how certain food companies dealing with volatile product costs are increasing operational efficiencies through the use of technology to drive pricing strategy. A good plug for Hormel Foods (HRL), which I've owned for the last few months.

    Thanks as always for sharing great articles and information.
    Oct 12, 2012. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Fallout From The Welch Jobs Debate [View article]
    Hello bartpr,

    Thanks for your comments here on my article and for raising a number of excellent points. Thanks also for sharing the attached PDF from the BLS. You are right that this is worthwhile to review in gaining a more in depth understanding of the BLS methodology.

    Thanks again.
    Oct 12, 2012. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Fallout From The Welch Jobs Debate [View article]
    Hello thucydides123,

    Thanks as always for your comment and insights. You raise some important additional points here as well. One of the things that genuinely concern me is how the dialog around these issues including the upcoming election has become increasingly coarse and antagonizing in recent years. It is always worthwhile to question the methodology of statistical analyses and to evaluate the credibility of the information that is being provided by any source. So when those in public positions on either side of the aisle react personally and defensively, it not only muddles what could otherwise be a substantive debate and discourages others in the future from questioning the system and its processes. And this just leads to even greater uncertainty.

    Excellent point as always. Thanks again.
    Oct 12, 2012. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Fallout From The Welch Jobs Debate [View article]
    Hello Michael,

    Thanks as always for your comment and excellent points as always. I've been meaning to put together an article on the earnings expectations game for some time and may try to do that now that we're heading into Q3 earnings season. And I agree completely with your points about the Fed and its communications efforts.

    I will follow up soon on a variety of other topics. Thanks again.
    Oct 12, 2012. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Has The QE Rally Gone? [View article]
    Hello IronMeteor,

    Thanks for your comment. You are correct that two data points are insufficient to draw any conclusions. I provided these examples from a broader construct that markets throughout history will have delayed reactions to catalyst events. But your point is very well taken.

    Also, you are spot on about the extreme shock risks that underlie the current market environment and provide reasons to monitor events closely going forward.

    Great points and thanks for sharing your perspectives.
    Sep 26, 2012. 10:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Has The QE Rally Gone? [View article]
    Hello Alfredo,

    You raise an important point here. If we draw close to the end of the year and the true sense begins to build that the fiscal cliff will neither be resolved or delayed, the potential sell off across asset classes could be dramatic. This will be an important issue to watch in the coming months.

    Excellent point. Thanks again.
    Sep 26, 2012. 10:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Has The QE Rally Gone? [View article]
    Hello +GF+ - Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it!
    Sep 26, 2012. 10:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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