While it has already been a difficult quarter for the stock market, the greatest challenges may lie ahead in the month of June.

After reaching a post crisis peak at the beginning of April, the stock market has been in a steady slide since. By last Friday, stocks as measured by the S&P 500 had fallen from its recent peak by more than -9%. And through the end of this past week, stocks were still down well over -7%.

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The recent bounce in stocks over the last week was promising. In particular, the market's resilience to overcome sizeable intraday declines on Wednesday and Thursday to end each day higher was impressive.

Whether stocks will be able to continue this recent move to the upside into the summer will be largely determined by a handful of key events upcoming in June. And the excitement gets underway starting next

It is said that bad things come in threes. A case where this is explicitly true is when it comes to secular bear markets for stocks. History has shown that when stocks enter such periods of prolonged decline that three major corrections occur before a new secular bull market begins. And to date in the current secular bear market that began in 2000, we have only experienced two sharp declines. Thus, history suggests that one more major stock market correction still lies ahead before we reach the dawn of a new sustained rise in stocks.

Dating back to the Buttonwood Agreement in 1792, U.S. stocks have experienced prolonged secular bull markets periods of steady gains followed by similarly extensive secular bear market phases of choppy declines. These bear phases occur to cleanse the excesses that were built up in the market system from the prior bull cycle and have historically

Gold has been a consistently strong performer since the early days of the financial crisis. But while the long-term fundamentals behind the trade remain firmly intact, the Gold price has fallen flat over the last several months. Despite the recently choppy price performance, it is likely that Gold may soon be entering the next sustained phase higher. And like so many other asset classes, the final outcome will be heavily dependent on actions by monetary policy makers.

A primary appeal to owning Gold in the current environment is its multifaceted characteristics. In short, it performs well at economic and market extremes. This includes periods of adrenaline induced market euphoria brought on by periods of aggressive monetary stimulus and its accompanying inflation risks. This also includes periods of perceived crisis and extreme market distress that have quickly followed once these central bank stimulus programs concluded, as Gold serves as a store

On Sunday I posted an article on Seeking Alpha entitled Long-Term Treasuries: How Low Can Yields Go? In the article, I made a positive case for Long-Term U.S. Treasuries and evaluated the potential for yields to fall further from current levels. But this leads to a natural follow up question to which several readers insightfully raised and astutely discussed in the comments to my article. Is now the time to buy Long-Term U.S. Treasuries or is it worthwhile to wait for a better entry point to emerge?

I remain bullish on Long-Term U.S. Treasuries through the iShares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond (TLT) as we move toward the end of Operation Twist and head into the summer months. This is due to the fact that the global economy appears to be increasingly weakening and Europe remains on the brink of crisis. And Treasuries have performed well since the beginning of

Worries about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy are being compounded by the threat of the U.S. economy careening off of a fiscal cliff at the end of the year. Supposing the economy begins to reverse course to the downside in the coming months, how much of an additional drain if any will a reduction in fiscal support place on the U.S. economy and the stock market (SPY)?

First, it is worthwhile to examine the specifics of the cliff that so many are now concerned about. Basically, at the end of 2012, a variety of government spending programs and tax cuts are set to expire. According to the Wall Street Journal, this includes roughly $100 billion in government spending cuts along with over $400 billion in tax increases on consumers and businesses. Thus, the cliff represents a total dollar amount equaling 3.5% of GDP. In an economy that is

Long-Term U.S. Treasury markets are back in rally mode. With uncertainty running high given the deteriorating situation in Europe and a stock market that has been in sharp decline throughout the month of May, investors are clamoring for the relative safety of U.S. Treasury debt. And nowhere has the benefit been more pronounced than at the long end of the curve, which has rallied by +6% for the month to date. But with yields already near historical lows, this latest advance raises the following question: how much lower can Treasury yields go? Depending on how events play out in global markets in the coming months, potentially quite a bit.

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Understandably, some investors are uneasy about the outlook for the Treasury market with the end of the Fed's Operation Twist stimulus program looming in June. But the good news is that the Treasury market has historically performed exceptionally

Stocks have suffered a brutal May so far. After bouncing back to an intraday high of 1415 on the S&P 500 on the first day of the month, stocks have plunged by -7.8% in the days since. And the drop has been unrelenting along the way, with declines in ten out of the last twelve trading days. With the situation in Europe increasingly deteriorating toward crisis, it is easy to build the case that the current decline could have much further to go. Perhaps this will be a correct conclusion in the end. But in the meantime, the stock market is overdue for a bounce.

The stock market has simply fallen too far, too fast. For those that have followed my articles over the last year, I have long contended that the stock market rally that we experienced from early October to early April has been entirely built on sand.

It's hard out there for a gold investor. The outcome of the European elections this past weekend was hardly the news to raise hopes that crisis would be averted across the region. Nor did they necessarily bolster confidence in the strength or sustainability of fiat currencies, including most notably the euro. Yet Gold has fallen by over -2.2% through the close of trading on Tuesday and is now down -10% from it peak at the end of February. Amid this weakness, it is not uncommon for some to step out in the media to take some pot shots at Gold. But these criticisms are often dismissive and obtuse, as they ignore a number of key points in defense of the yellow metal.

Despite the recent price weakness, the fundamentals for owning Gold remain strong. The threat of another phase unfolding in the global financial crisis is rising with each passing

It has been a bumpy road for the stock market so far in the second quarter. After reaching a post crisis peak on April 2, stocks as measured by the S&P 500 Index (SPY) have declined by -4% through Tuesday's close. Given that the stock market has suffered sudden and sharp declines in 2010 and 2011 around the same time of year, this latest pullback has left investors wondering whether we are at the beginning of yet another steep correction again in 2012. Two key indicators suggest the market is in no imminent danger. At least not yet.

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Stocks have certainly shown notable difficulty in recent weeks. After sustainably breaking below its 20-day moving average in early April for the first time since last November, the stock market also made a decisive move below its 50-day moving average in the last few trading days and is beginning

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest employment figures for the U.S. economy on Friday. Included in the report was the announcement that the unemployment rate had fallen to 8.1%, which marked the lowest level since February 2009 in the early days of the financial crisis. While this is certainly a move in the right direction, focusing on such a reading neglects the far larger problem - there remains a disturbance in the labor force.

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While the unemployment rate is a useful gauge, it is just a starting point and not an ending point in drawing any conclusions about the current state of employment in the U.S. economy. I've heard a variety of commentary since Friday focusing on the fact that the unemployment rate has dropped to 8.1%. This is good news, right? After all, the unemployment rate was as high as 9.1% in August 2011

The U.S. economy is likely headed toward recession. This has actually been the case for some time. For were it not for the powerful forces of fiscal and monetary policy, chances are we would already be there. And while policy makers may attempt to delay the inevitable even further in the months ahead, the economy will likely have its way in the end.

The performance of the U.S. economy, of course, is measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). And one way to measure GDP is through the Expenditure Approach, which is the sum of the following four components of the economy.

C : Consumer Spending

I : Business Spending

G : Government Spending

X-M : Net Exports (Exports minus Imports)

A brief look at each of the four main components of GDP reveals an economy that is likely headed toward recession. I'll examine each in reverse order. And

It is a statement that is often mentioned when discussing Gold.

"Gold is in a bubble"

It is a comment that is usually made with little evidence to support this claim. Typically, the primary support is the fact that the Gold price has meaningfully risen over the last decade. But citing a rising price is simply insufficient to draw such conclusions.

Gold is not in a bubble. This is true for several reasons.

While I will be focusing on the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) in this article, the same principles apply to the iShares Gold Trust (IAU), the ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) and the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS).

First, Gold has risen for a basic fundamental reason over the last decade. The current bull market in Gold began in January 2002. It is no coincidence that this marked the exact moment that U.S. policy makers shifted from

The upcoming presidential election in November promises to rank among the most important for the U.S. economy in years. The outcome will have a meaningful influence on the future business and regulatory environment for a variety of industries including the energy (XLE), defense (ITA), health care (XLV) and utilities (XLU) sectors. It will also greatly impact what we can expect from future tax policy, the profile of the Supreme Court and, perhaps most importantly, determining who will be directing monetary policy as Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. And with the U.S. economy careening toward a fiscal cliff at the end of 2012, the outcome of the election will likely have a profound and immediate impact both on the economy and the stock market (SPY).

Given the major importance the election results are likely to have on the economy over the next four years, it is worthwhile to begin assessing

"What a long strange trip it's been"

-Truckin', Grateful Dead

The stock market got off to a rousing start in 2012. But despite robust gains in the first quarter, stocks have recently shown signs of weakness. More significantly, substantial questions remain about the sustainability of these gains in the coming months. Thus, it is worthwhile to examine the road map of what we might expect for the remainder of the year.

You don't know where you're going until you know where you've been. And the past two years of 2010 and 2011 are particularly instructive in determining what we might expect for the rest of 2012. Of course, the previous two calendar years were both defined by one dominant theme - the forces of monetary policy stimulus. A brief review of the past two years highlights the significance of these effects.

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Back in 2010, stocks started

It was exactly one year ago this weekend. After a seven-month meteoric rise that began the moment Ben Bernanke completed his now legendary Jackson Hole speech in late August 2010, Silver reached a climatic peak on April 28, 2011. The year that has since passed has been far more humbling for the white metal. But with speculative cleansing comes new opportunity. Although the price activity in Silver is now relatively calm, we may soon be on the brink of its next dramatic move.

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The Silver price peak that occurred one year ago was particularly notable from a historical perspective. This is due to the fact that Silver skyrocketed to virtually the same exact high just below $50 that was first reached back in January 1980 when the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the market. Within two months after this previous peak in 1980, Silver lost over 75%

It is tough for gold to get respect. Many often conclude that only those investors filled with mistrust and paranoia about the current financial system hold gold.

But here is the thing. If you took the name tag off of the asset class and examined it over history, many would likely conclude that gold is a category that demands close attention and deserves more esteem.

First, any historical examination of gold as an investment must begin in 1971 when the direct convertibility of gold into U.S. dollars was officially eliminated and the gold price was free to fluctuate. Since that time, gold has generated an annualized return of just under +10% versus stocks as measured by the S&P 500 at just over +10%. Thus the rate of return is comparable. Moreover, the risk characteristics are also in the same ballpark, as gold has annualized return standard deviation of 23% versus

"No way you can fight it every day

No matter what you say

You know it, the rhythm is gonna get you"

-Gloria Estefan

The U.S. economy has historically moved with rhythm. Every three years on average, the economy would expand. And then for just over a year, the economy would recede. This historical rhythm is important. For just as yin cannot exist without yang, light cannot exist without dark, life cannot exist without death, and good cannot exist without bad, economic growth cannot exist without recessions. By periodically entering into recession, the economy is given the opportunity to cleanse the excesses built up during the last expansion and build a stronger base for the next phase of growth. The time has come today for the economy to enter its latest recessionary phase and cleanse itself anew. And history tells us that while it can provide some market relief today,

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week as they convene their latest Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss monetary policy. A primary focus of investors is whether the Fed will hint about any future policy action.

Such news is important, as the stock market has proven keenly sensitive to the influences of monetary stimulus since the outbreak of the financial crisis several years ago. But while another round of policy support may help stabilize the stock market at current levels, Fed stimulus alone may no longer be enough to drive stocks to new highs. Moreover, it may now be insufficient to offset the forces of a major downside shock.

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A reflection on the movements of the stock market since October 2011 is informative in this regard. The U.S. stock market as measured by the S&P 500 Index (SPY) initially exploded higher

It has been a frustrating stretch in the gold trade for some time now. After peaking last September, the yellow metal sold off and has been grinding sideways for the eight months since. And now with the Fed's latest stimulus program set to end in June, it is reasonable to consider whether gold is likely to struggle even more under such a scenario. While much is made about how the lack of Fed stimulus is negative for gold, the reality is that gold has been a proven performer regardless of Fed stimulus.

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While I will be focusing on the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) in this article, the same principles apply to the iShares Gold Trust (IAU), the ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) and the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS).

To begin with, the fundamental thesis for gold remains fully in tact. First, gold stands to