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Eric Parnell

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  • Assessing The Recent Stock Market Damage [View article]
    Hello Dragan_sd - Thanks for your comment and for making an interesting second derivative contrarian point. One could definitely argue that persistent investor caution around allocations may help fuel further gains before its all said and done. I do worry about the persistently strong bullishness among stock investors along with the record high margin debt levels, however. It will be interesting to see. Thanks again.
    Apr 11 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Recent Stock Market Damage [View article]
    Hello Buyandhold 2012,

    Thanks as always for your comment and I agree with your perspective here. Someday the moment may present itself again to purchase high quality stocks that are trading at deeply discounted valuations across the board. Such will be a great time to back up the truck and buy if it comes to pass.

    Thanks again.
    Apr 11 10:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Recent Stock Market Damage [View article]
    Hello tstreet,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing a great quote from the 1929 episode. I too enjoy these types of quotes a great deal, as they provide great insights on the thinking at any given moment during past periods of great turbulence.

    I also agree that becoming more defensive is a very reasonable strategy at this juncture. This does not mean that investors should abandon stocks, but instead may be served well by allocating toward higher quality and discounted valuation in more defensive sectors at least for now (if the pace of the decline accelerates, such an allocation may also not be well served either). As for other defensive categories, I wrote an article on this topic a few weeks back. I've included a link below for reference.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Thanks again
    Apr 11 09:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Recent Stock Market Damage [View article]
    Hello mathari,

    Thanks for your comment. And I share your concern about the market cap to GDP ratio that you've mentioned along with a number of other indicators suggesting that risks are tilted to the downside going forward. I also agree that we are likely to see continued volatility in the coming months, which is likely to offer some attractive short-term trading opportunities along the way.

    Thanks again.
    Apr 11 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Recent Stock Market Damage [View article]
    Hello bbro - Thanks for your comments as always. And I hope that you are right here, as it would likely mean that the economy is accelerating meaningfully as we move through 2014, which would definitely be a welcome development. Thanks again.
    Apr 11 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Recent Stock Market Damage [View article]
    Thanks 11146471 - I appreciate it!
    Apr 11 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Recent Stock Market Damage [View article]
    Hello Christopher,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your insights. For those that are interested in checking out Damodaran's ERP, please click on the following link below:

    http://bit.ly/1gSCtGj

    He has a variety of data sets that are worth exploring.

    Thanks again Christopher and great points.
    Apr 11 09:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tame A Bear Market Like A Champion [View article]
    Hello Ted,

    Thanks as always for your comment. This is a great question. Basically what the data shows is that once a liquidation phase takes hold, nearly all of aristocrats are sold off sharply and simultaneously with the broader market. As a result, most lose their defensive characteristics under a liquidation scenario.

    Thanks again for raising an important question.
    Apr 10 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tame A Bear Market Like A Champion [View article]
    Hello Barry,

    Thanks as always for your great commentary and for the mention of Sanderson Farms. This is definitely worth a look and I appreciate your sharing it here.

    Thanks again!
    Apr 9 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tame A Bear Market Like A Champion [View article]
    Hello Gerry,

    Thanks again for another great comment. The link to the latest post by Hussman is appreciated - I particularly like his chart on market cap to nominal GDP ratio and subsequent 10-year nominal S&P 500 returns. Excellent stuff as always. And the points you have highlighted here from Richard Fisher's latest speech is precisely why he is one of my two favorite voting members on the FOMC right now, as he is the voice at the table to express my ongoing concerns about the persistently aggressive stimulus programs from the Fed and their unfortunate spillover effects that may ultimately lead us to the next major market downturn.

    On a different note, I did read your note on the Coppock Curve and posted a reply. This was also really great material and I appreciate your sharing it with me.

    Thanks again Gerry. I look forward to exchanging more comments with you soon.
    Apr 9 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tame A Bear Market Like A Champion [View article]
    Hello The Rebel,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your thoughts and perspectives. While I agree that liquidation type events are fairly rare, I do worry that many of the policy actions taken in response to the crisis over the last several years may have fostered some of the same behaviors that led to the last liquidation event a few years ago. It will be interesting to see if this is indeed the case, particularly once interest rates first normalize and then start to rise.

    As for the performance of the 29 elite Aristocrats mentioned above, one concern I do have is valuation, as some of these names are trading at a higher premium, some meaningfully, than they were heading into the 2000 and 2007 episodes. But I agree that many of these names stand to hold up better than the broader market during any sustained pullback.

    Thanks again for your comment.
    Apr 9 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Tame A Bear Market Like A Champion [View article]
    Hello Nettligent - Thanks for your comment and interesting points on AIG. It seems to have stalled in a range between $47 and $53 since last October, so it will be interesting to see if it can manage a breakout as we move through 2014. Thanks again.
    Apr 9 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies For Earnings Season And Beyond [View article]
    Hi Gerry,

    Thanks for your comment and great analysis as always. I genuinely appreciate it. The information that you've provided here on the Coppock Curve is very interesting indeed. And I agree with you completely, as it was my same instinct to take a look at this on the S&P throughout history. And since it's built off of monthly data, it is something that can be done fairly easily. As a result, I may look to work this into an article combined with some fundamental analysis.

    What is particularly notable is the whipsaw during the summer of 2011. In many respects, this was when the U.S. stock market should have entered into sustained correction, but instead it has been flying higher for nearly three years since in almost a zombie like state. I worry that it does not end well.

    Thanks again Gerry. This is very interesting material and I have noted your points below as well.
    Apr 9 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies For Earnings Season And Beyond [View article]
    Hello Alan,

    Thanks as always for your comment - I appreciate it and agree with you completely on the comments too! And to your point, it will be very interesting to see what finally happens once the Fed steps away from all that they have done over the last several years.

    Thanks again!
    Apr 9 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies For Earnings Season And Beyond [View article]
    Hello alallmd,

    Thanks for your comment and I agree with you that there are some great comments here from aarc, Barry, fishfryer and convoluted as well as Alan and Gerry below too. Thanks again!
    Apr 9 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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