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Eric Parnell

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  • The Rime Of The Modern Fed Chairman [View article]
    Hello justaluckyfool,

    Thanks for your comment and I enjoy your commenting style.

    You make an important point here. Despite the criticism of the Fed, it has an important purpose in helping to support the U.S. economy. It certainly should not be ended and their policies in response to the crisis are worth lively debate.

    Good point. Thanks again.
    Jun 18 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The One Key In Finally Ending The Long-Term Bear Market [View article]
    Hello Avi,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it. I always look forward to reading your articles on SA, particularly those focused on Gold and Silver. As I've mentioned in the past, your perspective is always well reasoned and balanced and your analysis and insights are excellent. I've included a link to your most recent PM article from June 11 for any readers that might have missed it.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    You raise an important point about the market here that it could go decisively one of two ways over the short-term to medium-term. If policy makers step away, we could be back under 1200 on the S&P in no time. However, if global central banks go all in with another massive stimulus program, the ability of the market to float higher on air is boundless. But to your point, we will eventually reach a stage where a final wash out will occur. And the higher the market floats, the more painful the final end will be.

    Thanks again for your comment and for sharing your insights. Great stuff as always.
    Jun 18 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The One Key In Finally Ending The Long-Term Bear Market [View article]
    Hello bartpr,

    This is an outstanding point. Both profits as a % of GDP and corporate profit margins are at historically high levels and will be difficult to sustain in an environment of weakening global demand and potentially sticky commodity costs, particularly when so much of the efficiencies have already been wrung out of corporate operating budgets already.

    Excellent point. Thanks again.
    Jun 18 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The One Key In Finally Ending The Long-Term Bear Market [View article]
    Hello Bob,

    Thanks for your comment. And I think you raise a key point about the complexity of the current crisis when so many potential past and present solutions are being considered yet no clear path to resolve the problem has emerged other than providing more and more stimulus and hoping the problem will eventually go away.

    I agree with your point too that amid this uncertainty, diversification remains the best way to protect against losses and attempt to capture upside.

    Thanks again. I appreciate it and look forward to reading your future articles on SA.
    Jun 18 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The One Key In Finally Ending The Long-Term Bear Market [View article]
    Thanks untrusting investor. I appreciate!
    Jun 18 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The One Key In Finally Ending The Long-Term Bear Market [View article]
    Hello donlsales,

    Thanks for your comment. I didn't feel this way when the crisis first broke several years ago, as I have believed in the ability of America to allow the market system to fully function in realizing losses and relying on innovation to reinvigorate growth. But the longer we go on, I am increasingly sharing the view you've presented here about resembling Japan given the persistent unwillingness to allow the financial system to clear itself so that a new basis of sustainable growth can be established.

    This is a good point. Thanks again.
    Jun 18 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The One Key In Finally Ending The Long-Term Bear Market [View article]
    Hello Gerry,

    Thanks for your comment. You are absolutely right in citing the 10-year P/E from the Shiller data, as this is another data point that is supportive of the idea that stocks are currently overvalued. Thanks for raising this point. Thanks also for sharing the recent post from Doug Short - he contributes a lot of good material to SA.

    Thanks again.
    Jun 18 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The One Key In Finally Ending The Long-Term Bear Market [View article]
    Hello thucydides123,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it.

    You raise an important scenario that I believe could ultimately define the final resolution of the ongoing crisis. At some point we will reach a juncture where markets start to lose confidence altogether and begin to send both stock and bond prices lower, which is what we are already seeing in the at risk sovereigns like Italy and Spain. I don't believe we are at that juncture just yet in the U.S., but it is a distinct possibility depending on how things play out and how long policy makers remain committed to pursuing the same policy solutions. As a result, I think your positioning makes total sense. Moreover, it is something that we could definitely see in the short-term as well if we see capital flows back into Europe as you've described.

    Great comment as always. Thanks for sharing this thought.
    Jun 18 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rime Of The Modern Fed Chairman [View article]
    Hello Villi,

    Thanks for your comment and for adding this very insightful supplemental point. You make an excellent point as well about the role of Greenspan in disrupting the fog and mist of the normal business cycle, which helped set the stage for the current policies we are now seeing carried out.

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts and for adding these points to the discussion. I appreciate it.
    Jun 16 10:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rime Of The Modern Fed Chairman [View article]
    Hello follhedge4u,

    Great comment. The outstanding point that you've made here is one that I have felt for years about the U.S. economy and investment markets. If things were truly as good as they are suggested to be at times, then we would no longer be committed to endlessly easy monetary policy and extraordinary measures to support the economy. Accommodations such as the suspension of mark-to-market would be under active consideration for removal and tightening of monetary policy would be offset by the strengthening economy filling the void. To your point exactly, a patient pumped full of adrenaline may appear fine, but they are not healed. Until the patient is off the medication and plans are being made for discharge from the hospital, they are not healthy and instead still in serious condition.

    I agree with your perspectives on risk as well. A great deal of uncertainty lies ahead in the coming months. Thus, staying nimble and incorporating portfolio hedges are as important as ever.

    Outstanding comment. Thanks for sharing your perspective.
    Jun 16 08:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rime Of The Modern Fed Chairman [View article]
    Hello remurraymd,

    Thanks for your comment and I agree with your projection on future Fed policy. I believe Operation Twist 2 is the most likely policy action to come, perhaps at the July 31-August 1 FOMC meeting. And unless it is accompanied by a balance sheet expanding policy action from the ECB just like the past LTROs, the stock market response may prove disappointing to investors in the end.

    Thanks again for your comment. Good point.
    Jun 16 08:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rime Of The Modern Fed Chairman [View article]
    Hello winningtrader,

    Thanks for your excellent comment. You hit on a key point about the Fed that has been a constant source of irritation for me over the last few years, which is the endless parade of Fed members that are speaking almost daily about policy and the economy. While I appreciate the idea the Fed has been pursuing in increasing communications and transparency, I often wonder whether it is causing far more harm than good for the economy and markets. As you rightly point out, every day brings a different Fed governor sharing a widely divergent perspective on what actions are necessary to direct the economy. Yet when it comes time to actually vote on policy, their views are curiously far more aligned. With this in mind, it seems that part of the Fed's communication strategy is to have at least one Fed member out on the speaking circuit that is expressing one of many particular market views. Perhaps it is with the idea that if people think that at least one Fed governor is in the room stating their case on the economy and markets, they will feel assuaged about how policy is actually being carried out. It's hard to say. But I share your view on these forward looking rate calls - I had the same reaction when I heard these Fed governor calls for an exit strategy a few months ago. Given the still highly unstable state of the global economy, I have to think that they know better that any exit strategy is likely to be many years down the road.

    Thanks again for your comment. You make a ton of great points.
    Jun 16 08:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rime Of The Modern Fed Chairman [View article]
    Hello Norman - Thanks for your reply and your kind words. I appreciate it and look forward to your future articles and commentary.

    Thanks again!
    Jun 16 08:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rime Of The Modern Fed Chairman [View article]
    Hello sundate36,

    Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it. And thanks for sharing the investment letter from Tim Price at PFP Wealth Management. A very interesting and humorous read using the Mad Lib format. Seems like the fill in the blank approach applies to so many things nowadays.

    Thanks again.
    Jun 16 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rime Of The Modern Fed Chairman [View article]
    Hello justaluckyfool,

    Thanks for your comment and for sharing your thoughts. I appreciate it and will plan on reading the articles you have mentioned here on your recommendation.

    Thanks again.
    Jun 16 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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