Eric Rodawig

Long-term horizon, value
Eric Rodawig
Long-term horizon, value
Contributor since: 2013
"I suspect the business is ultimately doomed to failure because it lacks the superior economics of the core nightclub business."
Just because Robust may not be as great as nightclubs doesn't mean it is doomed to failure.
While we don't have many updates, it's nice to have vertical integration of something they were buying anyway.
So that's really interesting. But also look at the numbers of drives in that sample. Some of the high failure rate drives weren't actually purchased often. But the one bought overwhelmingly most often, the Desktop HDD.15, has a lower rate than the WD drives, and just about 1%-1.5% higher than the HGST drives (also WD of course).
They had issued a press release and discussed this on the last earnings call, they accrued $10.3mm; they expect maybe $7mm in September and $1.8mm in each of two subsequent annual installment payments.
http://reut.rs/1LVVrgg
There's no excess cash here. In fact, they have to pay out a bunch of cash. But it's obviously way better than them having to pay everything they accrued, especially over time without interest.
I think you have to be careful using the full non-GAAP earnings here as the patron tax in Texas seems more and more likely to actually be a factor.
William, yes, they announced on the call they are actually getting bank debt at 5%-6%; in such a loose lending environment, local banks are becoming more concerned with getting a nice asset on the books and loosening what some may call moral standards instead of credit standards.
this is an insane comment on an interesting article. people who write long and short articles should put their money where their mouths are and be long or short the stock. if you think he's shorting the stock and lying to move a ~$20b stock, then you can't be helped.
Have you read Gannett's financial statements? The stock doesn't actually have a P/E of 7; they marked up their equity stake in Cars.com when they bought the rest of it in 2014, which is a one-time accounting gain and has nothing to do with the earnings potential of the business.
You have your head in the sand if you "cannot recall ANY case in which the media speculated about a takeover AND that actually turned out to be the case."
Bloomberg generally has fairly reliable M&A leaks. For example:
http://bloom.bg/1DJjiM9
http://bloom.bg/1DJjkDM
Spoiler alert: http://soc.att.com/1os...
Alex, why would you stick to your stupid strategy of buying low when you could instead buy high like most of these commenters?
I was pretty surprised at the spinoff given how the company had long touted the synergies between local print and local broadcasting and the digital platforms. The stock popped to $35 right on the announcement but then went right back to where it had been.
Yeah, Boardwalk is absolutely not the best property to own in Monopoly, it's just the most expensive. Not sure why that was relevant to the article anyway.
This article is worth $0 because it was very clearly written with 0 understanding of CZR's capital structure. If CZR can lop off the OpCo, which it seems to have done, the stock could be worth $30. The fraudulent conveyance suit for the recent sale to CGP is not that big of a deal either way since in theory the assets were sold at fair market value. The real big deal will be if the removal of the CZR parent guarantee of the OpCo debt ends up being litigated or not, and if so, holds up in court or not. If I were a CZR shareholder or CEOC bondholder, I'd be more concerned about a fraudulent conveyance suit for the Total Rewards JV, because if TR gets out of the OpCo, there's really nothing at all stopping CZR from BKing the OpCo.
I started looking at them just as you wrote this article. What are your thoughts on their earnings from a few days ago?
Thanks for writing this article and saving me the trouble. Luckily, one of the hardest pieces of advice to take advantage of from Warren Buffett, Fisher, etc., is to buy when people are scared because of war, but now you can. Sberbank has a PE of <4, and a sustainable ROE of 20%. The author is also right to note Sberbank's impressive IR website; particularly compared to a lot of foreign/emerging market companies'.
Good analysis. This seems to be a huge problem for MGI. Not sure exactly how WMT signs a new 5-year contract and then launches a competing service shortly after.
Really great point, thanks for the article. I'm planning on holding IRDM for a several years while everything gets off of the ground.
I think sand pricing has steadily ticked upwards, though contribution margin has been strained due to the lower margins on 100 mesh. I think parabolic is a little overkill, though the author also used that term in his previous article.
The article doesn't compare COF to V/MA, with the exception of saying their earnings growth has been lower. The article compares COF to banks. Did you read past the first sentence?
I'm really sick of people telling Ashraf to cover Intel less. If you don't want high-quality, in-depth research and coverage of stocks, what are you doing reading Seeking Alpha?
How has the D3 RMAH failed? I don't really have any data on that actually as I've been recently really only looking at the stock for the Vivendi transaction (http://seekingalpha.co...)
I don't think LoL is a good comp for in-game sales for Titan as there's really not much to buy in LoL; it's a game that's a refresh of DotA that was created as F2P ~10 years ago. I'm sure ATVI will figure out how to make Titan a revenue driver, and perhaps the reason they scrapped what they had been working on is they realized it would be difficult to monetize vs. WoW 10 years ago.
Also, Bobby essentially cashed out in the Blizzard merger and is coming back in in a big way now, so that means something as well. Sure the future is uncertain but he knows much more than we do.
CZR could bankrupt the OpCo, but most of the debt there has parent guarantees, so the publicly traded entity would still be on the hook.
How is that chart showing an 8% FCF yield? MCD has had ~$4b of FCF recently and ~$5b returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. On a $95b-$100b market cap, that's not close to 8%.
thanks for writing this article. I've followed CASY for a long time but it's been quite expensive. do you have any comment on MUSA's fuel GPM of ~4% vs. CASY's ~5% given that MUSA is indicating that they're the low-cost leader? (I realize CASY wasn't in that comp chart)
Companies aren't allowed to do that w/out adverse tax penalties as it's considered a de facto repatriation. Typically U.S. loans can only be secured w/ 65% of the stock of a foreign subsidiary.
Intelsat is a great company, though the value is obviously highly dependent on long-term FCF projections subject to a lot of guessing.
Good points, and why I also sold calls as part of my play on the (then upcoming) transaction. Bobby, tencent, and some other groups ponied up for this as well, though, so they must have confidence in the product pipeline.
I'm about a week away from buying some more bonds, so I'm happy with that. Stock fell but recovered; it hasn't really gone up I guess.
Though the both own other businesses, Bouygues and Orange are trading <4x EV/EBITDA. European incumbent telcos have been trading around 5x, which would be an unrealistic multiple for any operator in the French market.
While they both own other businesses, both Bouygues and Orange are trading <4.0x EV/EBITDA.