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Eric Rolfe

 
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  • The Cheaper iPhone Is Already Here [View article]
    2 years ago the iPhone 4 16GB cost about $187

    http://bit.ly/U7zTUz

    A lot of that price was in the new Retina display which is going to be significantly cheaper now. Prices will have come down on almost all of the electronic parts. Material in labor are slightly up maybe. I'd be surprised if it costs more than $125-$150 to make the 4 right now.
    Jan 10, 2013. 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cheaper iPhone Is Already Here [View article]
    I think it is actually more likely to smooth out some of the seasonality that is starting to show up in iPhone and iPad sales.
    Jan 10, 2013. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) is working on a cheaper iPhone that could launch later this year, the WSJ reports. One source says the device could resemble the regular iPhone, but "with a different, less-expensive body." The cheapest iPhone currently sold (the 8GB iPhone 4) goes for $450 unlocked, putting it out of the reach of many emerging markets buyers, as well as some prepaid buyers in developed markets. The fact low-end Android phones sell for much less (sometimes less than $150 unlocked) has done wonders for Android's international share. [View news story]
    The more likely scenario is that Apple shortens the release time between phones to about 8 months and just keep pushing down the price of the iPhone 4. It is currently $450 with no contract. If it goes down $100 bucks every time a new apple product comes out you will be looking at a $250 iPhone in less than 16 months.
    Jan 8, 2013. 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Worrisome About Apple [View article]
    I'm referring to stock at Walmart specifically. I'm sure that most Apple stores and provider stores have stock.
    Dec 20, 2012. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Worrisome About Apple [View article]
    I would be surprised if Apple is contributing anything to the discount. Calling around to stores in my area only a couple had any 16GB iPhone 5's and none had them for Verizon. I think everyone basically checks their sale's are ok with Apple before doing them. One possibility is that Walmart agreed to take stock of more 3rd gen iPads Apple is trying to get rid of, in return Walmart gets to sell the iPhone at a loss to get people in the store. Mostly conjecture but seems more likely than Apple pitching in on the discount.
    Dec 20, 2012. 09:44 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    If people have big gains in their taxable accounts they are going to be selling them this year. They may repurchase them if they think it is a good long term investment.

    If it is in an IRA obviously selling for tax benefits won't be happening.
    Dec 14, 2012. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The IPad Mini Margin Myth [View instapost]
    I think that the minis are going to skew higher anyway, so anytime that happens is going to be an added bonus. I do wonder what the percentage of people is that go with the 32 GBs vs people who decide to not buy one.
    Dec 12, 2012. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The IPad Mini Margin Myth [View instapost]
    Yea sales volume on iPad is going to have a significant increases especially once the iPad Mini finally overcomes supply constraints. The number of iPad Mini units they will need to sell into channel partners to stock shelves alone is a mind boggling number. Based on current inventory levels something like 3 million iPad Minis just to fill shelves doesn't seem unreasonable. I doubt any of those 3 million will make into the current quarter, will probably be all Q2+.
    Dec 11, 2012. 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    Typed up a blog about the iSupli estimates and fears of th Mini cannibalizing the Retina.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 11, 2012. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    I agree that the capital expenditures have a huge impact on the profitability of Apple. The fact iSuppli does not take those into account does not make it flawed. It is a measure of something entirely different once you start trying to calculate in the capital costs, I think. You have to start looking over some long time frames because a significant portion of those capital expenditures are going to be one offs. We will get a better idea on what the volume and mix of iPads after the next earnings report, then you could try and work in the capital costs on top of build costs.
    Dec 9, 2012. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    Your comment contains 20% more useful information than the actual article.
    Dec 9, 2012. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    I actually just submitted an article for review that debunks this rumor and explains why it even exists in the first place.
    Dec 9, 2012. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    This idea that the iPad mini has lower margins than the iPad retina is probably one of the most well proliferated rumors.

    The iPad Retina has a markup of 57% of build cost
    The iPad 2 has a markup of 62% of build cost
    The iPad mini has a markup of 66% of build cost

    All the build cost estimates are from iSupply teardowns
    Dec 9, 2012. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Unintended Consequences Of The Special Dividend Bubble [View article]
    I'm sure this is the case for special dividends. You can see what happens here is Costco's Adjustment.

    http://bit.ly/UsEWOi-%20CBOE
    Dec 7, 2012. 06:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Unintended Consequences Of The Special Dividend Bubble [View article]
    Option prices are adjusted for special dividends. So this would not have a huge effect as long as the special dividend was in $5 dollar increments. Otherwise it will be a headache as it would create strange strike prices.
    Dec 4, 2012. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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