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Eric Rolfe  

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  • What's Worrisome About Apple [View article]
    I would be surprised if Apple is contributing anything to the discount. Calling around to stores in my area only a couple had any 16GB iPhone 5's and none had them for Verizon. I think everyone basically checks their sale's are ok with Apple before doing them. One possibility is that Walmart agreed to take stock of more 3rd gen iPads Apple is trying to get rid of, in return Walmart gets to sell the iPhone at a loss to get people in the store. Mostly conjecture but seems more likely than Apple pitching in on the discount.
    Dec 20, 2012. 09:44 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
    Whenever someone has a section called "Irrelevance of Traditional Valuation Techniques" it doesn't bode well for the reasoning and facts that are used in the piece.

    If you assumed Apple hardly grew at all , the current valuation would be fair if not cheap. no growth would basically assume Apple would get $40 billion in cash each year.

    All they would have to do is increase the dividend to pay out all the increased cash they get. Which would be about $40 billion at 0% growth.

    That ends up being $42 Dollars a share. Which at the current stock price would be a 7%+ yield. The yields on big stable companies rarely reach 5%. To get to the 5% yield you would end up with a share price of about $840.

    I don't know what Apple is going to do this quarter or next but eventually the fundamentals are the only thing that matters. Not analyst, pundits or bloggers.
    Oct 28, 2012. 10:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Sandbagging More Than You Think [View article]
    I agree with this being a common practice which is why I don't go through a new calculation of PE with it included. I think some people are not aware of the practice in general and just wanted to cover it since I was already going over liability related stuff on the balance sheet.
    Oct 29, 2012. 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cheaper iPhone Is Already Here [View article]
    2 years ago the iPhone 4 16GB cost about $187

    A lot of that price was in the new Retina display which is going to be significantly cheaper now. Prices will have come down on almost all of the electronic parts. Material in labor are slightly up maybe. I'd be surprised if it costs more than $125-$150 to make the 4 right now.
    Jan 10, 2013. 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) is working on a cheaper iPhone that could launch later this year, the WSJ reports. One source says the device could resemble the regular iPhone, but "with a different, less-expensive body." The cheapest iPhone currently sold (the 8GB iPhone 4) goes for $450 unlocked, putting it out of the reach of many emerging markets buyers, as well as some prepaid buyers in developed markets. The fact low-end Android phones sell for much less (sometimes less than $150 unlocked) has done wonders for Android's international share. [View news story]
    The more likely scenario is that Apple shortens the release time between phones to about 8 months and just keep pushing down the price of the iPhone 4. It is currently $450 with no contract. If it goes down $100 bucks every time a new apple product comes out you will be looking at a $250 iPhone in less than 16 months.
    Jan 8, 2013. 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    Your comment contains 20% more useful information than the actual article.
    Dec 9, 2012. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    This idea that the iPad mini has lower margins than the iPad retina is probably one of the most well proliferated rumors.

    The iPad Retina has a markup of 57% of build cost
    The iPad 2 has a markup of 62% of build cost
    The iPad mini has a markup of 66% of build cost

    All the build cost estimates are from iSupply teardowns
    Dec 9, 2012. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Unintended Consequences Of The Special Dividend Bubble [View article]
    I'm sure this is the case for special dividends. You can see what happens here is Costco's Adjustment.
    Dec 7, 2012. 06:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Growing Channels [View article]
    The straight line on the graph is the trend line. The green line is the channel inventories. Apple internal inventories have nothing to do with the analysis those are just held as liabilities on the balance sheet. You can see where the green line goes up sharply at Q2 and then goes down a small amount at 2012 Q3. Does that make sense?
    Nov 26, 2012. 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Growing Channels [View article]
    Apple counts sales to channels as sales, as do most companies. Apple does try and track sell-through vs sell-in at their partners, but I think this is so they can try and manage channel inventory better. Sales through Apple stores and the website only count once the customer has the product in hand. Most device companies don't have the situation where direct sales are a significant portion of revenue, so when a company in general says sales they are talking about mostly channel sales.
    Nov 26, 2012. 08:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • View Apple By Seasons, Not By Quarters [View article]
    I agree with almost everything you said here. I'm curious what effect you think Apple shorting their release cycle from 12 months down to 8 or 9 would have on this(What if the shortened refresh on iPad Retina was not an abnormally).
    Oct 28, 2012. 10:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cheaper iPhone Is Already Here [View article]
    I think it is actually more likely to smooth out some of the seasonality that is starting to show up in iPhone and iPad sales.
    Jan 10, 2013. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Worrisome About Apple [View article]
    I'm referring to stock at Walmart specifically. I'm sure that most Apple stores and provider stores have stock.
    Dec 20, 2012. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    If people have big gains in their taxable accounts they are going to be selling them this year. They may repurchase them if they think it is a good long term investment.

    If it is in an IRA obviously selling for tax benefits won't be happening.
    Dec 14, 2012. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The IPad Mini Margin Myth [View instapost]
    I think that the minis are going to skew higher anyway, so anytime that happens is going to be an added bonus. I do wonder what the percentage of people is that go with the 32 GBs vs people who decide to not buy one.
    Dec 12, 2012. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment