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Eric Sprague  

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  • Time To Short Disney: Horrendously Expensive And Misunderstood [View article]
    I'm long dis but this article makes some good points, especially this one:
    ESPN is often added in as an afterthought or as some sort of bonus property. No. You don't just "add in ESPN" as a cherry on top. ESPN is the story of growth. Disney is more dependent on ESPN's performance for their profits than they are on Pixar, Marvel, parks, cruises, and toys- put together.

    I wrote about ESPN's importance here:

    The WSJ article talks about some of ESPN's issues:
    The company, majority owned by Walt Disney Co., has lost 3.2 million subscribers in a little over a year, according to Nielsen data...


    At the same time, the prices ESPN pays for the rights to show games are ballooning.


    Since July 2011, ESPN’s reach into American homes has dropped 7.2%, from more than 100 million households


    The financial stakes are especially high for ESPN because it earns the most carriage fees of any TV channel, about $6.61 a month per subscriber, according to SNL Kagan.
    Jul 10, 2015. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Precision Castparts: Compounder, Margin Of Safety, Long-Term Upside [View article]
    Nice article. Thanks for writing it.
    Jul 3, 2015. 08:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Nike, LeBron James Is The Real MVP [View article]

    I agree with what Chapstick81 said too:
    One thing I'd argue about Steph being a little more marketable is more people can relate to 6'3" 190lb. He's got a great jumper and handles that kids will think they can learn.
    I think kids have an easier time identifying with guards than centers.

    Still, UA didn't start out as a shoe company like Nike. I was at the outlets the weekend before last. Nike had a line so far out the door that we didn't even bother with it. I don't think UA had a line at all.
    Jun 9, 2015. 07:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Nike, LeBron James Is The Real MVP [View article]
    Yeah, hard to guess about the future.

    Reebok was a threat when they had Shaq but Nike prevailed and now Reebok and its adidas parent are very small parts of the basketball market.
    Jun 9, 2015. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Under Armour's Growth Makes It A Great Long-Term Investment [View article]
    I think Curry will win the championship this year but much of UA's growth is priced in.

    Back in the day Shaq won championships but Reebok doesn't have much to show for it.
    Jun 9, 2015. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Nike, LeBron James Is The Real MVP [View article]
    Dr. Market,

    Yeah, the Cavs played admirably without Irving on Sunday but it will be very, very hard for them to beat the Warriors in a best of 7 series without him and Love.
    Jun 9, 2015. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Nike, LeBron James Is The Real MVP [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I like the breakdown by player from SportScanInfo in the Forbes article you cited.
    Jun 9, 2015. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nike Has Competitive Advantages [View article]
    Thanks for the comments! I've been a longtime customer of Nike and it was a treat reading about their history.
    May 19, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Precision Castparts: Why 30+ Years Into The Adventure, I Am Still Buying [View article]
    Thanks for the article.
    May 9, 2015. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PepsiCo: How 6.18% Core Growth Leads To A 10% Total Return [View article]
    I agree with giofls and Rod MacIver.

    Dividend yield and earnings growth are not additive.
    Mar 29, 2015. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Heinz And Buffett Get 'Krafty' But What Happens Next? [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Whitney Tilson asked about 3G and Kraft in today's Daily Journal meeting.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: An Analysis Using Warren Buffett's Owner-Earnings Equation [View article]
    Again, I think this is a nice article. However, I disagree about the working capital sign. In 2006 and 2014 the company increased working capital and the cash flow statement shows that this decreased cash flow from operations. I think this decreases 2006 & 2014 owner earnings as well such that they are $1,121.81 and $12,539.00 instead of $1,572.01 and $13,575.00 respectively.

    This is similar to where the author originally has owner earnings of $29,065. In the comments he changes this to $27,017 such that the working capital cash flow total of ($1,024) decreases owner earnings (it is not multiplied by -1).

    Using Inventories as an example, the 2006 cash flow statement and balance sheet show they increased by about $350 million. This working capital cost has a negative sign in the cash flow statement and its sign should be left alone as it should decrease owner earnings.
    Mar 22, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Portfolio: Adding U.S. Bancorp [View article]
    Thanks for the nice article.
    Mar 20, 2015. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    My fear is XOM will issue additional shares to make an acquisition when the stock price is quite low, instead of repurchasing shares while they are "on sale."
    It's kind of ironic that you're selling while they are "on sale." However, I understand this situation is more nuanced than that. One of the keys is what you're saying about the importance of management's capital allocation decisions. They're not really on sale if they make bad decisions with acquisitions and other choices.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: An Analysis Using Warren Buffett's Owner-Earnings Equation [View article]
    I forgot to say that this was yet again another nice article.

    You're right, google finance has the same numbers under cash flow.

    I added them up from the 10-K cash flow statement.

    + 360 Stock-based compensation expense
    - 482 Excess tax benefits from stock based compensation
    + 484 Tax benefits from excercise and vesting of stock-based awards
    + 22 Change in fair value of contingent consideration
    + 79 Other
    463 Total
    *Note that (236) deferred income taxes does not go under other.

    Working Capital:
    - 2,578 Accounts receivable, net
    + 143 Inventories
    - 371 Prepaid expenses and other assets
    - 289 Accounts payable
    + 533 Income taxes payable
    + 2,013 Accrued liabilities
    + 31 Deferred revenues
    - 518 Total
    Mar 18, 2015. 05:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment