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Erica Reisman

 
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  • The Piotroski High F-Score Screener: Why It Works [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words. I’ve looked at 10-year returns for the 70 stocks from the backtest that have 10-year data, and then isolated the 5-year return from five years ago. The breakdown is:
    • 25 of those stocks outperformed the S&P in five year period five years ago, and then continued to outperform in the past five years (there were 4 micro caps under $5M and 3 small caps, the rest mid- and large cap in this group)
    • 22 of the stocks outperformed the S&P in a five year period five years ago, and then underperformed in the last five years (there were 10 micro caps under $5M, 6 small caps, and the rest mid- and large cap)
    • 14 of the stocks underperformed the S&P in a five year period five years ago, and then outperformed the S&P in the last five years (there were 7 micro cap under $250M and the rest mid and large cap—more polarized than the other sections which is interesting.)
    • 9 stocks underperformed the S&P in a five year period five years ago, and then continued to underperform in the last five years (5 micro caps under $5M, 3 small cap and 1 mid-cap)
    Oct 21 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Brands Vs. Starbucks: A Cup To Cup Comparison [View article]
    Thanks Tom, that's a great question, and unfortunately I don't know the answer, but I'll let you know if I find out.
    Sep 16 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Brands Vs. Starbucks: A Cup To Cup Comparison [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words. Tim's didn't have much luck in Boston, they were here a couple of years ago but have since closed down.
    Jun 13 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Brands Vs. Starbucks: A Cup To Cup Comparison [View article]
    Most of DNKN's debt is long-term with variable interest rates, so the interest on the debt will most certainly be going up in the future. Hopefully they'll be able to get a handle on it soon.

    I do think DNKN is a little more recession-proof than SBUX, as it is more oriented to lower/middle income groups. Boston.com recently came out with an interesting article showing the locations of DNKN and SBUX in various cities in the US, which you can find here: http://bo.st/150QxYL

    Very interesting about the international experience of DNKN and SBUX, thanks for sharing.
    Jun 13 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Brands Vs. Starbucks: A Cup To Cup Comparison [View article]
    I agree with you that DNKN runs an asset-light model, so its operating margins and capex-to-sales are more favorable, but I chose not to compare them in my article because SBUX and DNKN run different models so it’s apples-to-oranges, and I don’t look at ROE for companies with such high debt.

    To date they haven't reduced their debt—their balance sheet shows that long-term debt is up over $350,000 2011 to 2012—mainly from the buyback, but if you look at the past three quarters their debt only decreased by $6 million, then increased by $9 million. I see the debt as, at best, hovering, but I wouldn’t say it’s coming down sharply.

    You're right that the franchise model means most of their revenue goes to free cash flow, but they're still expensive compared to SBUX. It’s TTM FCF per share is $1.01 and it's priced at almost $40, whereas SBUX has FCF per share at $1.98 but it’s priced at just over $63.

    I’m not saying they can’t grow, they definitely have room in the U.S. and if they follow their plan as laid out in their filings then they should be ok. But they’re not executing the plan as they laid it out, at least so far in 2013. They can certainly overcome this, but for me it’s not worth the risk.
    Jun 1 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dunkin' Brands Vs. Starbucks: A Cup To Cup Comparison [View article]
    I am from the Boston area and when I started researching this article I really was rooting for the home team, even though I personally prefer to drink Starbucks. I considered touching on health trends (which no question gives SBUX an edge) and quality/flavor (which can be a highly charged topic—best to steer clear of this all together), but instead decided to stick with the numbers. Even without those other two factors, it seemed clear to me that SBUX was the winner.

    In any case, it will be interesting to see how the Dunkin' expansion pans out over the next few years. As I mentioned in the article, they are already falling short of their store opening goal for 2013. I hope they don't go the way of Krispy Kreme, that other ill-fated donut shop.
    May 30 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google: History Repeating? Or Is This The End Of An Established Pattern? [View article]
    I'm afraid I don't know the exact numbers for the bullish consensus, but in the S&P report that came out January 5th , out of the 44 analysts they track that published recommendations, 45% said Google was a Buy, and another 25% said it was a Buy/Hold, and those numbers had gone up since 3 months prior.
    Jan 22 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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