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Erik Gholtoghian

 
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  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    You serve as a good example. You seem fairly content with your position. Panic is truly not here anymore. Sure, confidence lacks, but getting rid of the long term stockholder panic has been an accomplishment.
    Jan 13 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    I have recently written puts @ 3.50. This is my first long position in years. I have learned that with Dryships, even though the potential is great for reward, one must have a very well designed portfolio to have room for it.
    Jan 13 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    No disagreement from me. Looking at the brand "Vizio" and how its operations are evolving from China to Mexico is a great example of how many other companies will follow suit. China is not expensive enough to completely abandon, but it is getting expensive enough to maybe just produce a product in China but assembly it in Mexico, etc...
    Dec 21 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    I am not forecasting a crash in China for quite a while, but I think its growth will slow enough that it may become a very undesirable investment. Growth of sub 6% GDP is within sight.
    Dec 21 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    After reading my comment, I think I labeled it backwards. Technically, the Fed seems to believe that parity is below 5.70. Either way, 5.70 yuan per dollar seems to be about as strong as the fed will let the yuan get.
    Dec 19 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    I think the US policy on Mexico is to let Mexico boom, and the US will just benefit from the spillover of being right next door. The US wants EXTREMELY clean economic growth inside our borders.

    I am bullish on Mexico from both the publicly traded security perspective and the private equity side. Most Americans are very interested in potentially moving to Mexico to retire.

    Most of US growth will probably center around technological centers and the border with Mexico. For example, Texas has essentially the strongest economy in the US at this time.
    Dec 19 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    Shipping is an extremely interesting industry to examine using currency-based causes. I may write more in the future, but check out an article I wrote a few years ago, predicting all of this:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 19 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    China will slow regardless of if the growth moves to Mexico or elsewhere. My belief is that a massive proportion of the growth will move to Mexico rather than elsewhere. The US, Europe, and much of Southeast Asia will also see growth though.
    Dec 19 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    None of those individuals actually gets paid that much. None of them.
    Dec 19 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    Where do you feel parity is? Today, the Fed's tapering announcement suggests parity is above 5.70.
    Dec 18 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    Tough for me to say. The only crystal clear thing I see related is that wages in the US have not risen in 20 years, while over the same period, they have risen 400% in China.

    This past year has probably had the largest income growth in the US since the 80s, and wages have only grown maybe 10%.

    I don't have this data handy, but I have seen it dozens of times.

    Most data and reports I read suggest that American workers are more than three times as efficient than one Chinese worker, due to various causes. So even paying US workers triple the Chinese workers could be efficient pricing in profit-seeking companies.

    My belief, partially supported by treasury and PBOC statements, is that parity is not that far away for the yuan. It appears there is a huge psychological level at 6.00 yuan per dollar. When that breaks, huge structural changes are going to get moving. Parity may be 5.85 - 5.90, but it depends on how effective US workers really are when they finally get their chance.

    I cannot comment on Chinese social nets, but I see them becoming more Americanized each day. They are even getting fatter!
    Dec 17 05:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    The wording may a bit heavy, but it does reflect my belief of what is happening. With the currency changes shown, I don't see how it isn't a certainty to occur, other than maybe the possibility of a war disrupting things. I appreciate this criticism though.

    When it happens is certainly not an easy thing to predict, but I think it is safe to say it eventually occurring is nearly a certainty within a decade.
    Dec 17 05:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    You bring up a good point. Living in the bay area, in California, I was just discussing with friends yesterday that crime appears on the rise. Economic cycles produce different changes at different times. As far as I can tell, China is elevating into a more Japan-like economy, one that will be based on technology.

    There appears to be a large tradeoff in which a country has dirty industry or clean industry. Dirty industry is moving out of China, so growth will slow dramatically, but other negatives, like pollution, will eventually dwindle as well.

    Mexico's crime is high enough that I really consider it an emerging market rather than a developed economy. Jobs tend to help the incentive of crime to disappear.
    Dec 17 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    I appreciate your comment.
    Dec 17 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    Now you are seeing things. No ad hominem anywhere to be found.

    I don't care what your background is. You admitted that growth in China is slowing. So you made my argument for me. Time to get out of China and into Mexico.

    I'm done with this thread, as I am off to work. Odd that I would have to leave for work even though you said I have no real world experience. Kind of ironic you would say that, when in reality it is you who has no job.
    Dec 16 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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