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Erik Gholtoghian

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  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    So you think the fact that China's currency is strengthening leaps and bounds is a good thing for investing in China? What could China do to make China a bad investment?

    Of course PMI and exports are expanding, but as I said in the article, the delayed effects of strengthening currency will be a large wave, which has already started and will intensify.

    China does not want US assets anymore? Yes. This is how China is strengthening its currency, by no longer manipulating the yuan by buying US debt.

    But, again, my argument is not that China will collapse, but rather than the high speed growth in China is over and shifting elsewhere.
    Dec 16 02:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    Pretty much total agreement with you. It is no overnight event, but more and more evidence showing this process is surfacing each day.
    Dec 16 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Growth And Capital Are Moving From China To Mexico [View article]
    Look for my next article next week. I will analyze some specific names out of Mexico.

    If shipping costs rise, it could be a major impediment to Chinese growth and a boon to Mexican growth. Shipping costs don't appear ready to boom, but the floor appears in.
    Dec 16 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Ships beats by $0.02, revenue beats [View news story]
    LOL. DRYS is a joke. Stockholders need to seek therapy.
    Aug 8 02:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Elegant Solution For DryShips And Ocean Rig [View article]
    The limits of who is and isn't included is impossible for me to confirm. My guess is 80% of the world's citizenry claiming to make over 60K per year is involved in major lending and tax fraud.

    That is why the system cannot and will not function correctly.

    A perfect example is the NBA. None of them are making anywhere near their contract amounts.

    The world banking system should just be destroyed.
    May 17 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elegant Solution For DryShips And Ocean Rig [View article]
    I think the true problem is uncovered if one digs all the way back to who does and doesn't have money. The problem is that the biggest buyers in the world actually don't have any money. They just pretend they do. The ramifications are that at some point, that money borrowed cannot be paid back, and the people who bought those securities lose.

    The most pathetic part about the worldwide lending fraud going on is that the drybulk sector is honestly probably not even in the bottom half in terms of honesty. At least drybulk companies are disclosing their poor behavior. Does AT&T? Does Haliburton? Does Burger King? Does anybody believe Apples' earnings? Who are these chumps claiming to be auditors of these financial statements?

    For all of the above reasons, I have decided to leave public financial markets and only deal in private deals. When corrupt bums can break the law to get monies and then outbid every honest person, the system needs to be completely destroyed.
    May 17 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elegant Solution For DryShips And Ocean Rig [View article]
    Better than average article, although it is suffering from excessive bullishness. The problem with this entire sector, but especially this stock is there is no true catalyst worth risking money on. Every catalyst out there is either tiny, not true, or overshadowed by a crashing world economy, literally polluted with lending fraud.
    May 17 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Best Drybulk Equities: Navios Maritime And Diana Shipping [View article]
    Wow, I think this is the longest I have gone without making a trade or writing an article on drybulk. I have some deep writer's block, but when it subsides I will be a better writer/analyst for it.

    The whole sector looks like the weakest in the whole world right now. I'm expecting a US recession to finally emerge in the next 12 months. Not likely as big as the prior one, but probably not tiny. The amount of lending fraud and income fraud of all sorts is really through the roof. Plus, even if the Chinese exchange rate ever reverses heavily to benefit US job growth, that will still take a structural recession to reorganize the economy.

    I am recommending 100% cash at this time to all who are interested. Gold seems a short as well.

    Cash is king, and that is why drybulk is stuck.

    As usual, ramisle has provided superior research. I will eventually get back to writing on drybulk.
    Apr 16 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Best Drybulk Equities: Navios Maritime And Diana Shipping [View article]
    Much appreciated. I expect to stop being lazy and to start writing again one of these days.
    Apr 16 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Peter Schiff And Jim Rogers Are Wrong About The Collapse Of The Dollar [View article]
    By the way, I know of at least one individual who bought a brand new home with ZERO down in the past 12 months.
    Feb 21 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Peter Schiff And Jim Rogers Are Wrong About The Collapse Of The Dollar [View article]
    Go walk around any new housing development in California and look at the number of TOTAL CONFIRMED losers looking at homes to purchase. These total frauds are also driving Lexus SUVs and drinking Starbucks as if money is growing on trees.

    True, I am not quite deep enough into the tax reporting and lending game to give dramatic insights. Nonetheless, the insights I'm providing should be enough for people to be aware that something is wrong.

    Not 1-2 experiences. More like, 30% of every experience. The further issue that makes me even more suspicious is the complete secrecy of such events in the mass media. A person watching mass media television is led to believe that what I suggest is happening with extremely high frequency only happens a few times per year per city. Not the case.

    The documentation necessary to fool a lender is child's play. In fact, phony legal documentation can be created. The w-2s themselves can be totally, totally fake and nobody can get caught for anything. The originating business uses people as tax deduction slaves. These slaves obide by this method of grossly exaggerated pay because they are by and large financially illiterate and trapped and are searching for any way possible to get a mortgage or second mortgage to keep up the game that they are normal people.

    In many cases, I believe that Chinese restaurants in particular obtain fraudulent business loans using this very same method. Then, they also buy luxury vehicles and luxury homes (sometimes income property) using the entire scam. Have you seen how many luxury vehicles are flooding US freeways? How is this mathematically possible when unemployment is still as bad as it was in the peak of the 1983 recession?

    If I could fully mastermind the scam, I assure you I would myself partake, but those who do it are so secretive of this, I have not figured it out all the way yet.

    Just to be totally clear of my thoughts, I feel there are two salient points to focus on. One, I think the US economy is recovering, albeit very, very slowly so as to flush out as many of these frauds as possible. The US economy is going to probably absolutely bulldoze the Chinese economy due to a rising Chinese Yuan, which has caused a massive artificial nominal transfer of wealth to begin reversing back into the US.

    Second point is that these frauds I speak of are at least 30 times as common as any US citizen suspects, and the frauds are most highly correlated with foreigners living in the US. People who have just had an unexpected baby are also high on the list of suspicion and desperation.

    Fin
    Feb 21 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Fiscal Cliff Deal Will Bring Austerity And A Recession To America In 2013 [View article]
    Market uncertainty is as high as ever.
    Dec 16 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MetroPCS Shines As Phone Subsidies Plunge; Sprint Continues To Grow Unprofitably [View article]
    There are worse things than an ego.

    What I'm saying is that MetroPCS has a secret level of low-risk versus Sprint.

    If a recession develops out of the blue (stranger things have happened), then PCS will outperform by a long distance. That is going ignored by most investors.

    In general, the entire cell phone industry seems to be dominating the entire stock market though when you stand back and look at it.
    Aug 24 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excel Maritime: Another Drybulker To Bite The Dust? [View article]
    Also, I wanted to mention that I didn't think the report was relatively good. It was nothing but more losses.
    Aug 24 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excel Maritime: Another Drybulker To Bite The Dust? [View article]
    Yes. I think it will be delayed for longer than I originally thought though. Overall, my opinion of Dryships is that it has breached past the point of no return. I don't think the company can be saved in any circumstance, but there is no telling when lenders will agree with me. Could be 5 years. My prediction is Dryships goes to zero within three years. EXM and EGLE with likely both beat that time though.
    Aug 24 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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