Why I Think Vivus Is A Safer Bet Than Arena Pharmaceuticals [View article]
So, since you are so confident in the drug, maybe you can comment on my question. Do you think that drugs which used in combination with calorie restriction and increased exercise actually constitute a suitable weight loss drug? Meaning, don't you think those circumstances sort of preclude any validity to the studies?
A weight loss drug which may slightly work when used with the true cure to obesity?
Absolutely pathetic excuse for scientific research for a product.
Whether it will sell or not is a different issue. Just keep your comment to the ethical and legitimacy issues I have pointed out. Investors care about ethics.
Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
I don't think that dividend will benefit DRYS though. Remember. This is a consolidated company at this time. DRYS cannot pay itself dividends which it pays out.
Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
I like the article. I haven't read a more comprehensive ORIG article in a long time, if ever. ORIG takes a lot of deep research, and you have done more than a little here.
I have of late begun to take on a devil's advocate approach to insider buying, amongst all the stocks I have been watching lately. In other words, management knows its insider trades are being watched, so there is some chance that the goal of those trades may actually be contrary to appearances.
My pick for the best managed company in the US has a lot of insider selling (PCS). So lately, insider buys and sells affect me oppositely of most investors. The ORIG buy may have been a last ditch effort to help hold up the stock; otherwise Dryships could go down in flames if ORIG stock tanks with no support.
With so much oil drilling going on, it truly seems oil is going to be held down in price for quite some time.
I have found forming an opinion of ORIG very difficult. In general though, I am still a bit unconvinced that it provides any profit of any kind to Dryships. I haven't seen any yet, and I'm not sure I ever really will.
Overall, it seems to me you are long in oil for no other reason than it is lower than it was.
Technical analysis doesn't work.
But, there are many who will surely see the way you do.
I feel the opposite. I feel the world economy is buckling and consumers cannot afford to pay for oil anymore. This is resulting in an exodus from oil consumption really like nothing ever witnessed before. I do think oil may be stabilizing relative to weeks ago, but I don't see a bottom yet until the actual economies of the world show some kind of strength.
Percentage wise, PCS is still growing more quickly than AT&T and VZ, but those companies have fooled the general investment public.
PCS added 132,000 subscribers last quarter with a market cap of only about $2.2 million. New subscribers per share equals $16,666 market cap per subscriber add.
VZ added roughly 734,000 with a market cap which is 57 times higher than PCS. This means they grew subscribers 5.5 times as fast as PCS. This equals $172,207 market cap per subscriber add.
T added roughly 726,000 subscribers, with a market cap roughly 100 times higher than PCS. This is $287,879 in market cap for each new subscriber.
LEAP faired even better than PCS because they are experiencing a growth spurt. But chasing the latest growth numbers is a joke. One can clearly see that PCS offers more growth per dollar than the big guys, even in its worst growth quarter.
My belief is that these sales are just selling off options in the company as soon as they are awarded, as part of compensation. If you look at the share count, it has risen steadily but very, very slightly over the years. (Lately it has slowed though)
And it is possible that management knows it is being watched and is intentionally throwing off investors by making the sales. Heck, management could be working for Verizon to try and get the price down for a potential buyout. Anybody's guess really.
Maybe PCS management prefers to have a diversified portfolio? Maybe LEAP's management are gamblers?
My first question is, why is it bad for insiders to sell the shares when they get them?
I actually think that is smart, regardless of their opinion of the company's future. I mean, management really has no control of if potential stock buyers are too stupid to buy.
Maybe management sells the shares and buys metroPCS debt? Who knows?
Many, many possibilities. Maybe LEAP is planning to be bought out, so holding their shares makes more sense. What do you think?
Eagle Bulk Shipping: Another Drybulk Equity To Avoid [View article]
Can you expand on "Payment in kind?"
I'm definitely learning a lot watching this process play out in the sector.
That would be interesting if the definition of "profits" changes due to the new debt terms, causing the company to become profitable earlier than thought possible.
Eagle Bulk Shipping: Another Drybulk Equity To Avoid [View article]
Excellent find.
What are your thoughts on an EGLE or EXM bankruptcy? Starting to look similar to how the TBSI thing developed. I say "thing" because I guess it wasn't technically a bankruptcy, and neither will these others.
With so many little banker bailouts, it is delaying the defaults, but for how long?
These companies are getting tough to short at these levels though because they could survive quite a while with the concessions.
I do know that holding the shares would be very difficult for my stomach though.
When you say LEAP, do you mean a buyout by PCS? Certainly could happen. PCS has tried before.
LEAP has decent cash too. They have $356 million compared to a market cap of about $500 million. Still proportionally and absolutely less cash than PCS though.
I think LEAP is a decent recession pick as well due to their generally lower priced phones and service.
I like MetroPCS better because LEAP has a slower, less extensive network, yet actually sells its typical phone for as much or more than MetroPCS. LEAP is now offering an iphone, which is too highly priced for the overall business model of the company.
Beta on LEAP is 1.4 while with PCS it is .8.
I think lower risk is strategically smarter in this industry due to the competition level.
The general problem I see for investors is they are being fooled into thinking that VZ and T are low risk companies because the dividends are high. But in truth, PCS, LEAP, and other low end companies are actually the smarter recession pick for strong cash flows.
Why I Think Vivus Is A Safer Bet Than Arena Pharmaceuticals [View article]
A weight loss drug which may slightly work when used with the true cure to obesity?
Absolutely pathetic excuse for scientific research for a product.
Whether it will sell or not is a different issue. Just keep your comment to the ethical and legitimacy issues I have pointed out. Investors care about ethics.
Why I Think Vivus Is A Safer Bet Than Arena Pharmaceuticals [View article]
Why I Think Vivus Is A Safer Bet Than Arena Pharmaceuticals [View article]
Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
ORIG will pay a dividend. My guess is big...
Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
I have of late begun to take on a devil's advocate approach to insider buying, amongst all the stocks I have been watching lately. In other words, management knows its insider trades are being watched, so there is some chance that the goal of those trades may actually be contrary to appearances.
My pick for the best managed company in the US has a lot of insider selling (PCS). So lately, insider buys and sells affect me oppositely of most investors. The ORIG buy may have been a last ditch effort to help hold up the stock; otherwise Dryships could go down in flames if ORIG stock tanks with no support.
With so much oil drilling going on, it truly seems oil is going to be held down in price for quite some time.
I have found forming an opinion of ORIG very difficult. In general though, I am still a bit unconvinced that it provides any profit of any kind to Dryships. I haven't seen any yet, and I'm not sure I ever really will.
OIL: The Buy Of 2012 [View article]
OIL: The Buy Of 2012 [View article]
Technical analysis doesn't work.
But, there are many who will surely see the way you do.
I feel the opposite. I feel the world economy is buckling and consumers cannot afford to pay for oil anymore. This is resulting in an exodus from oil consumption really like nothing ever witnessed before. I do think oil may be stabilizing relative to weeks ago, but I don't see a bottom yet until the actual economies of the world show some kind of strength.
Overall, interesting article though.
Should MetroPCS Buy Back Shares? [View article]
PCS added 132,000 subscribers last quarter with a market cap of only about $2.2 million. New subscribers per share equals $16,666 market cap per subscriber add.
VZ added roughly 734,000 with a market cap which is 57 times higher than PCS. This means they grew subscribers 5.5 times as fast as PCS. This equals $172,207 market cap per subscriber add.
T added roughly 726,000 subscribers, with a market cap roughly 100 times higher than PCS. This is $287,879 in market cap for each new subscriber.
LEAP faired even better than PCS because they are experiencing a growth spurt. But chasing the latest growth numbers is a joke. One can clearly see that PCS offers more growth per dollar than the big guys, even in its worst growth quarter.
Should MetroPCS Buy Back Shares? [View article]
And it is possible that management knows it is being watched and is intentionally throwing off investors by making the sales. Heck, management could be working for Verizon to try and get the price down for a potential buyout. Anybody's guess really.
Maybe PCS management prefers to have a diversified portfolio? Maybe LEAP's management are gamblers?
Should MetroPCS Buy Back Shares? [View article]
I actually think that is smart, regardless of their opinion of the company's future. I mean, management really has no control of if potential stock buyers are too stupid to buy.
Maybe management sells the shares and buys metroPCS debt? Who knows?
Many, many possibilities. Maybe LEAP is planning to be bought out, so holding their shares makes more sense. What do you think?
Eagle Bulk Shipping: Another Drybulk Equity To Avoid [View article]
That brings the question: with such a thick blanket now, does management have more incentive to intentionally drive the company under?
Eagle Bulk Shipping: Another Drybulk Equity To Avoid [View article]
I'm definitely learning a lot watching this process play out in the sector.
That would be interesting if the definition of "profits" changes due to the new debt terms, causing the company to become profitable earlier than thought possible.
Eagle Bulk Shipping: Another Drybulk Equity To Avoid [View article]
What are your thoughts on an EGLE or EXM bankruptcy? Starting to look similar to how the TBSI thing developed. I say "thing" because I guess it wasn't technically a bankruptcy, and neither will these others.
With so many little banker bailouts, it is delaying the defaults, but for how long?
These companies are getting tough to short at these levels though because they could survive quite a while with the concessions.
I do know that holding the shares would be very difficult for my stomach though.
Should MetroPCS Buy Back Shares? [View article]
LEAP has decent cash too. They have $356 million compared to a market cap of about $500 million. Still proportionally and absolutely less cash than PCS though.
I think LEAP is a decent recession pick as well due to their generally lower priced phones and service.
I like MetroPCS better because LEAP has a slower, less extensive network, yet actually sells its typical phone for as much or more than MetroPCS. LEAP is now offering an iphone, which is too highly priced for the overall business model of the company.
Beta on LEAP is 1.4 while with PCS it is .8.
I think lower risk is strategically smarter in this industry due to the competition level.
The general problem I see for investors is they are being fooled into thinking that VZ and T are low risk companies because the dividends are high. But in truth, PCS, LEAP, and other low end companies are actually the smarter recession pick for strong cash flows.