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Erik Gholtoghian

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  • MetroPCS Shines As Phone Subsidies Plunge; Sprint Continues To Grow Unprofitably [View article]
    They have $5.8 billion in cash and about $1 billion in available credit lines.

    Current liabilities are $7.4 billion.

    The company will continue losing money for at least two years.

    About $2 billion in principal repayment is due by early 2014.

    But as I said, the company shouldn't have any problem paying that unless losses really accelerated dramatically and lending became a problem.
    Jul 27 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MetroPCS Shines As Phone Subsidies Plunge; Sprint Continues To Grow Unprofitably [View article]
    So PCS is a regional player. And? Is this bad in your book? A regional player that makes money every quarter is worse than a nationwide company which loses money every quarter?


    Sprint's smartest move would be to try and sell some spectrum to PCS for some quick cash. Sprint has more spectrum than it needs.
    Jul 27 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MetroPCS Shines As Phone Subsidies Plunge; Sprint Continues To Grow Unprofitably [View article]
    PCS does NOT have to merge with anybody. It has billions of dollars in cash ready to acquire spectrum, IF IT WANTS ANY.

    In all likelihood, Sprint in particular is a great distressed candidate which may be forced to sell off some spectrum. You can't lose money forever.

    Your standards must be much different than mine, but when a company tells me there are losing money, even once, I lose faith in management. You hear the same story every quarter for many, many years, and apparently think losing money is good.

    Not saying Sprint is dead, but it has a LONG, LONG way to go before being profitable again.

    Interestingly, I don't think Sprint could afford to buy PCS.
    Jul 27 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MetroPCS Shines As Phone Subsidies Plunge; Sprint Continues To Grow Unprofitably [View article]
    Agree with you nearly fully. The bottom line is PCS is regional, but if you are fortunate enough to have coverage, it is the best game in town. The stock tends to trade cheaply and with significantly more value than the other telecom stocks. This discount is unjustified in my opinion.

    What Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint longs are missing requires a trip to best buy. Look how cheap TVs are. Even the cheapest 40" TV looks awesome with essentially a perfect picture. Why pay for a Sony when a Vizio does 99.9% for 1/2 the price?

    Same as PCS versus Verizon or Sprint if you ask me.

    Interestingly, Both Sony and Sprint are losing money.
    Jul 27 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Peter Schiff And Jim Rogers Are Wrong About The Collapse Of The Dollar [View article]
    Your comment matches my personal observations exactly. It seems the so-called money printing is actually debt printing, which is very different. I think this method is being chosen to somehow best manage the deluge of currencies manipulators of the dollar in recent decades.

    The complete economics are truly a deep concept to uncover, but my roundabout belief is that the US dollar is going to strengthen in day-to-day trading dramatically 3-5 years from now.

    The Peter Schiffs do an excellent job on the nominal explanation though. It is just that deeper inside, the real effects are the exact opposite.
    Jul 20 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping: Safest Shipping Play, Trading At A Discount [View article]
    Well, DSX could be on spot, but they continue to use charters.

    Out-muscle may be a strong characterization, but in the end it will likely prove true.
    Jul 12 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy MetroPCS: A Turnaround Story [View article]
    So what should management do differently in your opinion?
    Jul 11 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How DryShips Offers A Unique Opportunity Now [View article]
    I think I have writer's block for a while. No need to breakup into sections. Duplication is even good in this niche I feel.
    Jul 10 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    That DTYS looks like a rather doomed fund. Most of the inverse funds are. But I also can't see treasuries really falling anytime soon.


    I'm thinking of some strategy right now. I'm a bit perplexed with the market right now. Bonds of all kinds seem pretty strong to me, for now.
    Jul 10 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How DryShips Offers A Unique Opportunity Now [View article]
    That is true that if the Yuan were valued so highly that imports surged it could help drybulk. Right now, the Yuan is placed in a very lackluster zone though. Exports out of China are hurt, and imports aren't really climbing to any great extent.

    You would have to think that at some point soon something else should be happening in drybulk. Patriot coal just filed bankruptcy today. EXM looks pretty ripe for some horrible news any day.
    Jul 9 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    It would be rare that individual investors would have large enough of portfolios to handle that kind of diversification, but even traders would probably be better off going that route than to use technicals.

    Instead of a pairs trade, one would probably be best off with a 4 piece pairs trade. Maybe buy DSX and Navious, and short EGLE and EXM. Maybe leave DRYS out of the trade for now until it worsens or improves. One could control market risk buy overweighting the individual names.

    For example, maybe short $10,000 worth of EXM and EGLE equally, and buy only $8,000 of DSX and Navious equally. This would give a nice slightly beta negative effect to the entire position. Betas need to be taken into consideration too though to really balance the trade.

    The result of the trade would duplicate what hedge funds are doing. Due to the reduced risk, significant leverage could be applied more safely than normal to increase return.
    Jul 9 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ship Finance - High Yield On The High Seas [View article]
    This is a decent article. I found it to be a slightly boring read, but it is fairly comprehensive.
    Jul 9 03:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    LOL. GE. Too funny.


    To old trader, the only legit reason I could see buying the sector at all would be to have a very sophisticated position with a carefully managed beta. Even though the sector is essentially trash, the relative difference between each company is clear enough that it presents an opportunity to create some shorts and longs which act beta/delta neutral when combined.

    In other words, DSX is a strong buy versus the sector, not the market. Buying DSX is a great way to hedge a Dryships or Eagle Short. Essentially betting on relative performance for fairly low returns, but very low risk if diversified enough.


    I really do think drybulk is one of the most interesting sectors. It envelops pretty much everything there is in its analysis, so I am rarely critical of anybody who tries to figure it out, unless they pull some absurd ratios out of the air and swear to the Lord it means something is the bargain of the decade.
    Jul 9 03:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How DryShips Offers A Unique Opportunity Now [View article]
    We agree with long term oil fundamentals it appears. All else equal though, I was saying that the Yuan valuation doesn't seem to have much effect on oil tankers. I could be wrong though.
    Jul 9 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping: Safest Shipping Play, Trading At A Discount [View article]
    I noticed this trend with DSX recently too. All of their recent charters really push prices into the lower bounds and below. This supports my belief that Diana is trying to muscle out the overleveraged shippers by keeping rates low with whatever power they have.
    Jul 8 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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