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Erik Gholtoghian  

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  • Diana Shipping: Safest Shipping Play, Trading At A Discount [View article]
    Well, DSX could be on spot, but they continue to use charters.

    Out-muscle may be a strong characterization, but in the end it will likely prove true.
    Jul 12, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy MetroPCS: A Turnaround Story [View article]
    So what should management do differently in your opinion?
    Jul 11, 2012. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How DryShips Offers A Unique Opportunity Now [View article]
    I think I have writer's block for a while. No need to breakup into sections. Duplication is even good in this niche I feel.
    Jul 10, 2012. 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    That DTYS looks like a rather doomed fund. Most of the inverse funds are. But I also can't see treasuries really falling anytime soon.

    I'm thinking of some strategy right now. I'm a bit perplexed with the market right now. Bonds of all kinds seem pretty strong to me, for now.
    Jul 10, 2012. 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How DryShips Offers A Unique Opportunity Now [View article]
    That is true that if the Yuan were valued so highly that imports surged it could help drybulk. Right now, the Yuan is placed in a very lackluster zone though. Exports out of China are hurt, and imports aren't really climbing to any great extent.

    You would have to think that at some point soon something else should be happening in drybulk. Patriot coal just filed bankruptcy today. EXM looks pretty ripe for some horrible news any day.
    Jul 9, 2012. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    It would be rare that individual investors would have large enough of portfolios to handle that kind of diversification, but even traders would probably be better off going that route than to use technicals.

    Instead of a pairs trade, one would probably be best off with a 4 piece pairs trade. Maybe buy DSX and Navious, and short EGLE and EXM. Maybe leave DRYS out of the trade for now until it worsens or improves. One could control market risk buy overweighting the individual names.

    For example, maybe short $10,000 worth of EXM and EGLE equally, and buy only $8,000 of DSX and Navious equally. This would give a nice slightly beta negative effect to the entire position. Betas need to be taken into consideration too though to really balance the trade.

    The result of the trade would duplicate what hedge funds are doing. Due to the reduced risk, significant leverage could be applied more safely than normal to increase return.
    Jul 9, 2012. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ship Finance - High Yield On The High Seas [View article]
    This is a decent article. I found it to be a slightly boring read, but it is fairly comprehensive.
    Jul 9, 2012. 03:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    LOL. GE. Too funny.

    To old trader, the only legit reason I could see buying the sector at all would be to have a very sophisticated position with a carefully managed beta. Even though the sector is essentially trash, the relative difference between each company is clear enough that it presents an opportunity to create some shorts and longs which act beta/delta neutral when combined.

    In other words, DSX is a strong buy versus the sector, not the market. Buying DSX is a great way to hedge a Dryships or Eagle Short. Essentially betting on relative performance for fairly low returns, but very low risk if diversified enough.

    I really do think drybulk is one of the most interesting sectors. It envelops pretty much everything there is in its analysis, so I am rarely critical of anybody who tries to figure it out, unless they pull some absurd ratios out of the air and swear to the Lord it means something is the bargain of the decade.
    Jul 9, 2012. 03:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How DryShips Offers A Unique Opportunity Now [View article]
    We agree with long term oil fundamentals it appears. All else equal though, I was saying that the Yuan valuation doesn't seem to have much effect on oil tankers. I could be wrong though.
    Jul 9, 2012. 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping: Safest Shipping Play, Trading At A Discount [View article]
    I noticed this trend with DSX recently too. All of their recent charters really push prices into the lower bounds and below. This supports my belief that Diana is trying to muscle out the overleveraged shippers by keeping rates low with whatever power they have.
    Jul 8, 2012. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How DryShips Offers A Unique Opportunity Now [View article]
    The longer term issue going on is because of the Yuan revaluation, there will be a trend of US imports coming from Mexico more and more and China less and less.

    The effect should be a bit muted because the Yuan revaluation has stopped, but the effect has a delay, and the PBOC and the Fed are watching national trade deficits/surpluses closely.

    The longer term risk which could surface is that a dramatic amount of goods may no longer be shipped from China to the US, and instead brought in by train and truck from Mexico into the US.

    This would likely hit containerships and drybulk the hardest. Tankers would be relatively unscathed from this long term development. This is a very slow trend in the background though, not something that will generally show up in headlines much over the next two years.

    Right now, I think the best use for Price/Book ratios is to use them as a proxy for risk and leverage. The lower the ratio, the more leverage the company has.
    Jul 4, 2012. 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS' John Hodulik slashes his subscriber estimates (I, II) for MetroPCS (PCS) and Clearwire (CLWR), as evidence grows of U.S. mobile saturation and a tough competitive environment for everyone besides AT&T and Verizon. He now sees MetroPCS losing 150K subs in Q2 (50K prior), and having a cost per gross add of $251 ($235 prior). Clearwire is now expected to post wholesale net adds (mostly Sprint-related) of 400K in Q2 (700K prior) and 1.4M in 2012 (2.3M prior).  [View news story]
    To surmise that only AT&T and Verizon have good growth prospects is beyond idiotic.

    In fact, it is quite the opposite.

    When is the last time you met somebody who switched over to Verizon from somewhere else? Try, never except maybe a few hillbillies out in the middle of nowhere.
    Jul 3, 2012. 05:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Ready To Sail Higher This Summer [View article]
    Interesting read. One note is that Europe is already in a confirmed severe recession.

    For Dryships, the price of oil and the BDI will dominate the action for the next several weeks. $2.00 is a very strong floor for DRYS it appears. But, if oil continues to weaken, and the BDI stops its climb, a serious event could occur.

    Another shipping company just went bankrupt:
    Jul 2, 2012. 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
    I'm not sure I agree they will sell off below the 50% level. It is possible the tankers will be spun off or even sold if needed by then.

    For the time being, that is why ORIG profits are so critical: because they flow onto Dryships' balance sheet and income statement.

    I do see an ORIG dividend as a fairly high probability of occurring though.
    Jul 1, 2012. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think Vivus Is A Safer Bet Than Arena Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    So, since you are so confident in the drug, maybe you can comment on my question. Do you think that drugs which used in combination with calorie restriction and increased exercise actually constitute a suitable weight loss drug? Meaning, don't you think those circumstances sort of preclude any validity to the studies?

    A weight loss drug which may slightly work when used with the true cure to obesity?

    Absolutely pathetic excuse for scientific research for a product.

    Whether it will sell or not is a different issue. Just keep your comment to the ethical and legitimacy issues I have pointed out. Investors care about ethics.
    Jul 1, 2012. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment