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Erik Gholtoghian

 
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  • How DryShips Offers A Unique Opportunity Now [View article]
    We agree with long term oil fundamentals it appears. All else equal though, I was saying that the Yuan valuation doesn't seem to have much effect on oil tankers. I could be wrong though.
    Jul 9, 2012. 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping: Safest Shipping Play, Trading At A Discount [View article]
    I noticed this trend with DSX recently too. All of their recent charters really push prices into the lower bounds and below. This supports my belief that Diana is trying to muscle out the overleveraged shippers by keeping rates low with whatever power they have.
    Jul 8, 2012. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How DryShips Offers A Unique Opportunity Now [View article]
    The longer term issue going on is because of the Yuan revaluation, there will be a trend of US imports coming from Mexico more and more and China less and less.

    The effect should be a bit muted because the Yuan revaluation has stopped, but the effect has a delay, and the PBOC and the Fed are watching national trade deficits/surpluses closely.

    The longer term risk which could surface is that a dramatic amount of goods may no longer be shipped from China to the US, and instead brought in by train and truck from Mexico into the US.

    This would likely hit containerships and drybulk the hardest. Tankers would be relatively unscathed from this long term development. This is a very slow trend in the background though, not something that will generally show up in headlines much over the next two years.

    Right now, I think the best use for Price/Book ratios is to use them as a proxy for risk and leverage. The lower the ratio, the more leverage the company has.
    Jul 4, 2012. 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS' John Hodulik slashes his subscriber estimates (I, II) for MetroPCS (PCS) and Clearwire (CLWR), as evidence grows of U.S. mobile saturation and a tough competitive environment for everyone besides AT&T and Verizon. He now sees MetroPCS losing 150K subs in Q2 (50K prior), and having a cost per gross add of $251 ($235 prior). Clearwire is now expected to post wholesale net adds (mostly Sprint-related) of 400K in Q2 (700K prior) and 1.4M in 2012 (2.3M prior).  [View news story]
    To surmise that only AT&T and Verizon have good growth prospects is beyond idiotic.

    In fact, it is quite the opposite.

    When is the last time you met somebody who switched over to Verizon from somewhere else? Try, never except maybe a few hillbillies out in the middle of nowhere.
    Jul 3, 2012. 05:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Ready To Sail Higher This Summer [View article]
    Interesting read. One note is that Europe is already in a confirmed severe recession.

    For Dryships, the price of oil and the BDI will dominate the action for the next several weeks. $2.00 is a very strong floor for DRYS it appears. But, if oil continues to weaken, and the BDI stops its climb, a serious event could occur.

    Another shipping company just went bankrupt:

    http://reut.rs/QS2ScL
    Jul 2, 2012. 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
    I'm not sure I agree they will sell off below the 50% level. It is possible the tankers will be spun off or even sold if needed by then.

    For the time being, that is why ORIG profits are so critical: because they flow onto Dryships' balance sheet and income statement.

    I do see an ORIG dividend as a fairly high probability of occurring though.
    Jul 1, 2012. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think Vivus Is A Safer Bet Than Arena Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    So, since you are so confident in the drug, maybe you can comment on my question. Do you think that drugs which used in combination with calorie restriction and increased exercise actually constitute a suitable weight loss drug? Meaning, don't you think those circumstances sort of preclude any validity to the studies?

    A weight loss drug which may slightly work when used with the true cure to obesity?

    Absolutely pathetic excuse for scientific research for a product.

    Whether it will sell or not is a different issue. Just keep your comment to the ethical and legitimacy issues I have pointed out. Investors care about ethics.
    Jul 1, 2012. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think Vivus Is A Safer Bet Than Arena Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    I do have one serious question for any who can actually answer though. Why does ARNA have revenue if there are no current products on the market yet?
    Jul 1, 2012. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think Vivus Is A Safer Bet Than Arena Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    HAB should be paid $1000 by GOD. That is the most perfect comment in the universe.
    Jul 1, 2012. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
    I don't think that dividend will benefit DRYS though. Remember. This is a consolidated company at this time. DRYS cannot pay itself dividends which it pays out.
    Jul 1, 2012. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
    Ding, ding, ding, ding. I see now. Mintzmyer has totally nailed it.

    ORIG will pay a dividend. My guess is big...
    Jul 1, 2012. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean Rig: Uncertainty Is Already Priced In [View article]
    I like the article. I haven't read a more comprehensive ORIG article in a long time, if ever. ORIG takes a lot of deep research, and you have done more than a little here.

    I have of late begun to take on a devil's advocate approach to insider buying, amongst all the stocks I have been watching lately. In other words, management knows its insider trades are being watched, so there is some chance that the goal of those trades may actually be contrary to appearances.

    My pick for the best managed company in the US has a lot of insider selling (PCS). So lately, insider buys and sells affect me oppositely of most investors. The ORIG buy may have been a last ditch effort to help hold up the stock; otherwise Dryships could go down in flames if ORIG stock tanks with no support.

    With so much oil drilling going on, it truly seems oil is going to be held down in price for quite some time.

    I have found forming an opinion of ORIG very difficult. In general though, I am still a bit unconvinced that it provides any profit of any kind to Dryships. I haven't seen any yet, and I'm not sure I ever really will.
    Jul 1, 2012. 02:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OIL: The Buy Of 2012 [View article]
    Can't really disagree with that. One step further though: if the S&P and oil rise, I think a plunge in both becomes a certainty.
    Jun 30, 2012. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OIL: The Buy Of 2012 [View article]
    Overall, it seems to me you are long in oil for no other reason than it is lower than it was.

    Technical analysis doesn't work.

    But, there are many who will surely see the way you do.

    I feel the opposite. I feel the world economy is buckling and consumers cannot afford to pay for oil anymore. This is resulting in an exodus from oil consumption really like nothing ever witnessed before. I do think oil may be stabilizing relative to weeks ago, but I don't see a bottom yet until the actual economies of the world show some kind of strength.

    Overall, interesting article though.
    Jun 29, 2012. 03:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should MetroPCS Buy Back Shares? [View article]
    Percentage wise, PCS is still growing more quickly than AT&T and VZ, but those companies have fooled the general investment public.

    PCS added 132,000 subscribers last quarter with a market cap of only about $2.2 million. New subscribers per share equals $16,666 market cap per subscriber add.

    VZ added roughly 734,000 with a market cap which is 57 times higher than PCS. This means they grew subscribers 5.5 times as fast as PCS. This equals $172,207 market cap per subscriber add.

    T added roughly 726,000 subscribers, with a market cap roughly 100 times higher than PCS. This is $287,879 in market cap for each new subscriber.


    LEAP faired even better than PCS because they are experiencing a growth spurt. But chasing the latest growth numbers is a joke. One can clearly see that PCS offers more growth per dollar than the big guys, even in its worst growth quarter.
    Jun 29, 2012. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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