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Erik Gholtoghian

 
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  • DryShips CEO George Economou, the Ultimate Shipping Indicator [View article]
    I think my 83% figure accurately captures sealed up value that the market won't let surface until things really improve financially. Everybody knows there is some value tucked away; the question is how much? I personally don't see an Ocean Rig spin off anytime soon. He already sold off 25% of the company, and for him to sell off any more and to somehow transfer that wealth to investors, maybe in the form of a dividend seems very unlikely to me. More likely is after another year if he feels drybulk has truly bottomed, then he'd sell off more Ocean Rig to make more drybulk bets. This article has a different approach than my last few to give a more absolute valuation rather than the relative to the sector style I'd been using before.
    Feb 12 12:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips CEO George Economou, the Ultimate Shipping Indicator [View article]
    I'm stuck with a few hundred shares that I have had for a few years that I refuse to sell at a loss. But I still have to disclose my position.
    Feb 12 12:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MetroPCS: Compelling Value in Both Product and Performance [View article]
    Many people talk about PCS as a takeover target, but truthfully I don't think it would be allowed because it would create too much market power from the acquiring company and reduce competition too much. It is certainly possible though.
    Feb 2 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MetroPCS: Compelling Value in Both Product and Performance [View article]
    Congrats. I totally agree my move to metro was the best financial move I made last year.
    Feb 2 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Superiority of Bond Funds [View article]
    Yes, very similar.
    Jan 26 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Superiority of Bond Funds [View article]
    Now that's a nice little free tool. Thanks.
    Jan 25 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing Fundamentals and Risk in the Drybulk Industry [View article]
    Try and push control and the plus key at the same time.
    Jan 25 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing Fundamentals and Risk in the Drybulk Industry [View article]
    Great sources, and the FFAs were down again today and will likely be poor for a a while.

    No argument from me there.
    Jan 25 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing Fundamentals and Risk in the Drybulk Industry [View article]
    I follow DRYS very closely, but am not that aware of EXM other than its exposure to the BDI apparent from the fleet deployment.

    I'll check it out.
    Jan 25 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing Fundamentals and Risk in the Drybulk Industry [View article]
    Good comments. My only distinction I want to point out is risk versus alpha. DSX is the less risky company when compared to EXM, so if in fact you can predict the bdi and the economy and stock market at large, and you are bearish, DSX is the better choice. But if we assume we cannot predict the future, which to some extent both you and I admit, we eventually will be forced to admit that EXM has alpha over DSX.

    Today I added the tiniest of tiny positions in EXM based on its underperformance from the sector, even without news.

    Cheers
    Jan 25 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing Fundamentals and Risk in the Drybulk Industry [View article]
    Do you know what systematic risk is?
    Jan 25 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing Fundamentals and Risk in the Drybulk Industry [View article]
    As far as I can see, EXM actually has the lowest Price to cash flow ratio in the whole industry.

    I honestly feel you are basing the majority of your opinion on speculation about what the bdi will do, when in fact this is unpredictable. Sure there are supply and order numbers, but that doesn't make it predictable. I'm saying based on everything besides the bdi, EXM is one of the top values in drybulk. The bdi is very lowly correlated with drybulk company performance these days. They could easily lock in all those ships right now if they chose, at rather low rates.

    Your accounting acumen seems pretty high. It appears to me they amortized a gain from their merger, probably under the completion of contract assumption. Nearly every drybulk company was already forced to make major impairment charges on their fleets, so I don't think FMV of assets is as important as at other times.

    The bottom line is EXM is making a legit GAAP profit and is valued the 3rd lowest in the industry. That ain't bad.
    Jan 25 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing Fundamentals and Risk in the Drybulk Industry [View article]
    Their liabilities are only 1/3 their assets. They have plenty of current assets to pay their current liabilities, especially after the new $250 million bond offering just announced.

    Risk of dilution is lower than many companies.

    How is it you think earnings come from amortizations? Amortizations are expenses. How can an amortization boost earnings at all? In fact, isn't it the opposite?

    Yes they have a lot of spot, but investors have overreacted. They is a lot of value in EXM.

    Much more speculative than what? Just because some other companies have charters locked in doesn't make them less speculative if the price of EXM is lower enough to begin with. The unlocked charters are MORE than already priced in.
    Jan 25 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Superiority of Bond Funds [View article]
    Going back further provides very similar results, but the last three years aren't that unusual. The SPY is nearly even over the last 3 years; that isn't that abnormal. The point I'm making though is that unusual events happen in stock markets because they have a higher standard deviation than most would believe, and they get sucked into a false sense of security once markets get calm.
    Jan 25 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is the Best Value in Cramer's FADS CAN [View article]
    Well yes, companies which default are a worse value; I'll give you that one. Of companies making money, I find it to be the worst value on the market. Self explanatory.
    Jan 25 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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