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Erik Gholtoghian  

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  • DryShips Could See A Short-Term Boost [View article]
    Dryships is very finicky. It falls tremendously when you feel it shouldn't, and it explodes upwards when you feel it shouldn't. The best approach is to use fundamental analysis, and this usually means using timing which goes against the crowd.

    It rewards true risk takers, amazingly efficiently. You cannot jump in and jump out with profits more than by chance. You have to ride out the storm, or you will get nothing. The algo-traders and others will make sure of it.
    May 20, 2014. 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From DryShips Going Into Earnings [View article]
    Interestingly, I submitted an excellent article last week, but it was rejected. The article analyzed Dryships' balance sheet. My conclusion was that Dryships has a relatively strong balance sheet with ample ability to borrow.
    May 20, 2014. 12:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    Or, if it falls to $3, you'll be exercised on and you'll automatically load up. Either way, I think it is a good time to devise ways to increase exposure to Dryships.
    Feb 2, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    No argument from me. No company should be involved with anything unethical, at all. But after having quite a bit of time to reflect on the magnitude of what Dryships does and with what other companies do, in all honesty, I find, sadly, that Dryships is not uncharacteristically unethical. I was just better able to see Dryships ethics problems because the company is very forthright about it. The company is also quite small and easy to track compared to most other companies.

    Again, AT&T gave $2 billion to T-mobile just a few years ago for absolutely no good reason other than being unethical and skirting the law. Both stocks have been up 60%+ since. Because markets are close to efficient, there very well may be borderline ethical reasons for some of these actions that cannot be seen by outsiders.

    At the very least, I can say that unethical behavior of this type is quite common.

    My speculation is that with the change in financial strength being experienced, ethics will likely be positively influenced as well. Most of the flagrant past actions seemed to take place as a result of impending financial distress and panic.
    Jan 15, 2014. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    LOL. You sound like a stowaway who can handle a rough storm.
    Jan 15, 2014. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    With the company on solid footing, the need for unethical practices probably falls.
    Jan 15, 2014. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    Additionally, I think there is an excellent chance that even the self-serving may have peaked.
    Jan 14, 2014. 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    As Kev is alluding to below, I don't think there are publicly traded companies which are issue free. In fact, as of this point, I have found the so-called financial regulation in the US to be a joke. At some point, the stock price of each company needs to accurately discount potential managerial risks to adequately reward the risk taken by investors. I think that the main risk over the past 5 years with Dryships is gone. There is a lingering self-serving management problem, but that problem is quite small relative to what the company was facing before.
    Jan 14, 2014. 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    My pleasure.
    Jan 14, 2014. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    I cannot disagree much. I will go so far as to say I think it has officially bottomed though.
    Jan 13, 2014. 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    I tried something a little deeper this time. I get tired of reading the same superficial, brief articles that just talk about the bdi.

    My view on Dryships is a long time coming, as I have been very critical for quite a while. But at some point, if I don't acknowledge the positives, I am not being unbiased.

    Sure the guy has apparently bilked some monies from the company, but frankly, all publicly traded companies exhibit this behavior. Anybody notice that AT&T basically gave $2 billion to T-mobile for no good reason other than being stupid? Sometimes there are legitimate business reasons for these apparently fraudulent behaviors though, at least some of the time.
    Jan 13, 2014. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    Your point about using proper risk management is essential. The stock will rise and fall, and if people overexpose, they will probably get taken out.
    Jan 13, 2014. 02:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    Take a breath and give it another go.
    Jan 13, 2014. 02:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    Can't argue with you one bit. Frankly, I have been on your boat for at least the past three years straight, probably since about late 07'.

    But it seems to me that if Dryships can survive that long, it is over. It survived. How much value will eventually surface remains to be seen, maybe none. But in all likelihood, based on CAPM, it could easily see 20% per year for the next 5 years.
    Jan 13, 2014. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economou's Redemption [View article]
    I think the potential is there for truly explosive returns, but I think I would look at the stock in a monthly returns manner rather than daily. There are so many traders trying to price it daily that it is very volatile and can easily crush a day trader. A past firm I worked for literally sets up computers at market open and blitzes the market with an avalanche of trades.

    The BDI is truly only mildly correlated, and the correlation isn't that statistically significant. At the least, I wouldn't over-rely on the bdi, especially since it isn't all that predictable either.

    There are a truly excessive number of traders just trading DRYS as if it is a bet on the bdi. They will eventually find out that the correlation is quite weak.
    Jan 13, 2014. 02:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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