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    <title>Erik Gholtoghian's Instablog</title>
    <description>Based in California, Erik Gholtoghian's main interest is equity valuation of the telecom, shipping, and commodity sectors.  He is a law school dropout who holds an MS in Financial Analysis and a BS in Managerial Economics and is a CPA candidate and a CFA candidate.  He prides himself on looking widely at the entire market, including fixed income, commodities, and economic trends, then working his way into company specific financials when making an equity valuation.  

He spends most his day reading annual reports, industry reports, and looking for profitable trades.

His goal is to provide the unbiased analysis that Wall Street doesn't want you to know.  He is most comfortable being called an equity analyst.</description>
    <author>
      <name>Erik Gholtoghian</name>
    </author>
    <link>http://seekingalpha.com/author/erik-gholtoghian/instablog</link>
    <item>
      <title>High Income Fund Showdown: JNK Versus NCV Versus PHK</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/814718-erik-gholtoghian/242251-high-income-fund-showdown-jnk-versus-ncv-versus-phk?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">242251</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[The economy is in an uncertain state, but one which appears to have some footing of some sort.&nbsp; Europe, although unsteady, seems to have most of the fear factor eroding.<br>US junk bond fund payments/dividends fell apart for years, but of late they have been holding up more steadily.&nbsp; <br><br><strong>The SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)</strong> for example has been holding steady with an average monthly dividend of roughly 24 cents for the prior six months, which translates to 7.92% per year at current prices.&nbsp; <strong>The AGIC Convertible &amp; Income Fund (NCV)</strong> on the other hand is a closed-end fund which is offering 12.19% and a steady payment history of roughly nine cents per month.&nbsp; <strong>The PIMCO&nbsp;High Income Fund (PHK)</strong> is offering a monthly payment of 12 cents, which equals approximately 11.90% per year at these prices.<br><br>The funds have their own unique advantages.&nbsp;<strong> (JNK) </strong>offers options and the most liquidity.&nbsp; It also offers quick transparency with the actual bond markets.&nbsp; Meaning, when junk bonds fall in value,<strong> (JNK)</strong> falls in value nearly in lock-step.<br><br><strong>(NCV)</strong> offers a managed fund of mostly convertible bonds, with the goal of trying to earn even more income than junk bond funds by adding in leverage and some other management techniques.&nbsp; The risk is that the monthly payments are set for long periods of time and are then rapidly hiked or in this environment cut.&nbsp; The downside is this can trap investors who do not want to take principal risk.&nbsp; The fund also nearly always trades at a premium to NAV (net asset value).&nbsp; The current premium is 10.80%, which means the fund could someday fall to net asset value very easily, trapping investors further.<strong><br><br>(PHK)</strong> offers the same managed fund style as<strong> (NCV)</strong>, but the big difference here is you are paying a much larger premium to net asset value.&nbsp; The current premium to net asset value is a whopping 70%!&nbsp; This can be looked at two ways.&nbsp; Either the fund is in fact the best managed in the world, and the premium is justified by the superior management techniques, or you can look at this premium as a rip-off of 70%.&nbsp; It does not happen often, but I have seen hedge funds try and knock down this fund's premium by shorting the shares, and at times they are effective.&nbsp; But the Bill Gross managed fund continues to regain its composure every time it is knocked down.&nbsp; The main reason the premium lives on is that the large monthly dividend of this fund is one of the only in existence with such standing power that it has not dropped its gigantic dividend payments even one time.&nbsp; The fund has been known to employ unconventional fund techniques, such as being net short US treasury bonds.<br><p><br><strong>Conclusion:</strong><br><br>If you are looking for a liquid instrument for which you can accurately trade the high yield bond market,<strong> (JNK)</strong> is your choice.&nbsp; Options give your positions tremendous flexibility as well.&nbsp; If you are looking for a fund with a huge monthly dividend but only a small premium to<strong> (NAV)</strong>,<strong> (NCV)</strong> is your choice.&nbsp; But beware that the huge dividend is more likely to be cut than many other funds if the market contracts too far.&nbsp;<strong> (PHK) </strong>is the choice for those who want their money managed by the largest name brand in the business.&nbsp; 70% is truly an astonishingly high premium to pay, but something about having Bill Gross manage your bond portfolio in turbulent times does feel good.&nbsp; <br><br>An excellent idea is to diversify across all three funds to have the best of all of the fixed income world.&nbsp;<strong> (JNK)</strong> puts can also serve as excellent insurance for all three funds losing principal.&nbsp;<strong> (JNK)</strong> is shown below versus both<strong> (PHK)</strong> and <strong>(NCV)</strong>.</p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I am long <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/jnk" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">JNK</a>.<br><br><strong>Additional disclosure:</strong> My position is a synthetic option position.]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:41:21 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[The economy is in an uncertain state, but one which appears to have some footing of some sort.&nbsp; Europe, although unsteady, seems to have most of the fear factor eroding.<br>US junk bond fund payments/dividends fell apart for years, but of late they have been holding up more steadily.&nbsp; <br><br><strong>The SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)</strong> for example has been holding steady with an average monthly dividend of roughly 24 cents for the prior six months, which translates to 7.92% per year at current prices.&nbsp; <strong>The AGIC Convertible &amp; Income Fund (NCV)</strong> on the other hand is a closed-end fund which is offering 12.19% and a steady payment history of roughly nine cents per month.&nbsp; <strong>The PIMCO&nbsp;High Income Fund (PHK)</strong> is offering a monthly payment of 12 cents, which equals approximately 11.90% per year at these prices.<br><br>The funds have their own unique advantages.&nbsp;<strong> (JNK) </strong>offers options and the most liquidity.&nbsp; It also offers quick transparency with the actual bond markets.&nbsp; Meaning, when junk bonds fall in value,<strong> (JNK)</strong> falls in value nearly in lock-step.<br><br><strong>(NCV)</strong> offers a managed fund of mostly convertible bonds, with the goal of trying to earn even more income than junk bond funds by adding in leverage and some other management techniques.&nbsp; The risk is that the monthly payments are set for long periods of time and are then rapidly hiked or in this environment cut.&nbsp; The downside is this can trap investors who do not want to take principal risk.&nbsp; The fund also nearly always trades at a premium to NAV (net asset value).&nbsp; The current premium is 10.80%, which means the fund could someday fall to net asset value very easily, trapping investors further.<strong><br><br>(PHK)</strong> offers the same managed fund style as<strong> (NCV)</strong>, but the big difference here is you are paying a much larger premium to net asset value.&nbsp; The current premium to net asset value is a whopping 70%!&nbsp; This can be looked at two ways.&nbsp; Either the fund is in fact the best managed in the world, and the premium is justified by the superior management techniques, or you can look at this premium as a rip-off of 70%.&nbsp; It does not happen often, but I have seen hedge funds try and knock down this fund's premium by shorting the shares, and at times they are effective.&nbsp; But the Bill Gross managed fund continues to regain its composure every time it is knocked down.&nbsp; The main reason the premium lives on is that the large monthly dividend of this fund is one of the only in existence with such standing power that it has not dropped its gigantic dividend payments even one time.&nbsp; The fund has been known to employ unconventional fund techniques, such as being net short US treasury bonds.<br><p><br><strong>Conclusion:</strong><br><br>If you are looking for a liquid instrument for which you can accurately trade the high yield bond market,<strong> (JNK)</strong> is your choice.&nbsp; Options give your positions tremendous flexibility as well.&nbsp; If you are looking for a fund with a huge monthly dividend but only a small premium to<strong> (NAV)</strong>,<strong> (NCV)</strong> is your choice.&nbsp; But beware that the huge dividend is more likely to be cut than many other funds if the market contracts too far.&nbsp;<strong> (PHK) </strong>is the choice for those who want their money managed by the largest name brand in the business.&nbsp; 70% is truly an astonishingly high premium to pay, but something about having Bill Gross manage your bond portfolio in turbulent times does feel good.&nbsp; <br><br>An excellent idea is to diversify across all three funds to have the best of all of the fixed income world.&nbsp;<strong> (JNK)</strong> puts can also serve as excellent insurance for all three funds losing principal.&nbsp;<strong> (JNK)</strong> is shown below versus both<strong> (PHK)</strong> and <strong>(NCV)</strong>.</p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I am long <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/jnk" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">JNK</a>.<br><br><strong>Additional disclosure:</strong> My position is a synthetic option position.]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/jnk/instablogs">jnk</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ncv/instablogs">ncv</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/phk/instablogs">phk</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Bonds">Bonds</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS INC--A No-Brainer Sell</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/814718-erik-gholtoghian/244711-arena-pharmaceuticals-inc-a-no-brainer-sell?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">244711</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<strong><span>Introduction</span>:</strong><br><br><span>There</span> <span>are</span> <span>some</span> <span>stocks</span> <span>which</span> <span>have</span> <span>solid</span> <span>financial</span> <span>statements</span>, <span>a</span> <span>solid</span>, <span>growing</span> <span>business</span>, <span>and</span> <span>a</span> <span>solid</span> <span>market</span> <span>niche</span>.&nbsp; <span>Then</span> <span>there</span> <span>are</span> <span>companies</span> <span>which</span> <span>are</span> <span>doing</span> <span>nothing</span> <span>but</span> <span>taking</span> <span>up</span> <span>space</span>.&nbsp; <span>How</span> <span>analysts</span> <span>or</span> <span>authors</span> <span>can</span> <span>recommend</span> <span>others</span> <span>to</span> <span>buy</span> <span>a</span> <span>stock</span> <span>which</span> <span>is</span> <span>nothing</span> <span>but</span> <span>a</span> <span>speculative</span> <span>play</span> <span>still</span> <span>alludes</span> <span>me</span>.&nbsp; <span>Maybe</span> <span>these</span> <span>so</span> <span>called</span> <span>analysts</span> <span>are</span> <span>getting</span> <span>kickbacks</span> <span>for</span> <span>their</span> <span>so</span> <span>called</span> <span>analysis</span>.&nbsp; <span>Whatever</span> <span>the</span> <span>case</span> <span>may</span> <span>be</span>, <span>what</span> <span>if</span> <span>a</span> <span>real</span> <span>quantitative</span> <span>analyst</span> <span>with</span> <span>no</span> <span>bias</span> <span>tried</span> <span>to</span> <span>value</span> <span>Arena</span> <span>Pharmaceuticals</span>?&nbsp; <span>What</span> <span>would</span> <span>he</span> <span>or</span> <span>she</span> <span>recommend</span>?<br><br><strong>(<span>ARNA</span>)</strong> <span>is</span> <span>a</span> <span>speculative</span> <span>pharmaceutical</span> <span>company</span> <span>which</span> <span>is</span> <span>expected</span> <span>to</span> <span>lose</span> <span>money</span> <span>for</span> <span>the</span> <span>foreseeable</span> <span>future</span>.&nbsp; <span>The</span> <span>stock</span> <span>rises</span> <span>and</span> <span>falls</span> <span>in</span> <span>a</span> <span>very</span> <span>jerky</span> <span>manner</span>, <span>mainly</span> <span>as</span> <span>a</span> <span>result</span> <span>of</span> <span>FDA</span> <span>related</span> <span>news</span> <span>about</span> <span>its</span> <span>drugs</span>.&nbsp; <span>The</span> <span>purpose</span> <span>of</span> <span>investing</span> <span>in</span> <span>such</span> <span>a</span> <span>company</span> <span>would</span> <span>be</span> <span>to</span> <span>provide</span> <span>growth</span> <span>to</span> <span>a</span> <span>portfolio</span>.&nbsp; <span>There</span> <span>is</span> <span>no</span> <span>dividend</span>, <span>no</span> <span>profits</span>, <span>and</span> <span>no</span> <span>reason</span> <span>to</span> <span>want</span> <span>to</span> <span>own</span> <span>this</span> <span>stock</span> <span>at</span> <span>this</span> <span>time</span> <span>other</span> <span>than</span> <span>as</span> <span>speculation</span>.<br><br><strong><span>Valuation</span>:</strong><br><br><span>Because</span> <span>most</span> <span>stock</span> <span>moves</span> <span>are</span> <span>unpredictable</span>, <span>CAPM</span> <span>analysis</span> <span>can</span> <span>help</span> <span>determine</span> <span>whether</span> <span>a</span> <span>company</span> <span>is</span> <span>overvalued</span> <span>or</span> <span>undervalued</span> <span>using</span> <span>statistical</span> <span>measurements</span> <span>rather</span> <span>than</span> <span>useless</span> <span>technical</span> <span>analysis</span>.&nbsp; <span>The</span> <span>beta</span> <span>of</span> <span>the</span> <span>company</span> <span>is</span> <span>.70</span>.&nbsp; <span>Over</span> <span>the</span> <span>past</span> <span>year</span> <span>the</span> <span>stock</span> <span>is</span> <span>up</span> <span>40</span>% <span>while</span> <span>the</span> <span>S</span>&amp;<span>P</span> <span>is</span> <span>up</span> <span>0</span>%.&nbsp; <span>This</span> <span>means</span> <span>that</span> <span>from</span> <span>a</span> <span>basic</span> <span>statistical</span> <span>level</span>, <span>ARNA</span> <span>is</span> <span>40</span>% <span>overvalued</span>, <span>unless</span> <span>the</span> <span>S</span>&amp;<span>P</span> <span>rockets</span> <span>upwards</span> <span>soon</span>.&nbsp; <span>In</span> <span>other</span> <span>words</span>, <span>what's</span> <span>better</span> <span>about</span> (<span>ARNA</span>) <span>than</span> <span>the</span> <span>S</span>&amp;<span>P</span> <span>500</span>?&nbsp; <span>I</span> <span>see</span> <span>nothing</span>.&nbsp; <span>In</span> <span>fact</span> <span>I</span> <span>see</span> <span>many</span> <span>more</span> <span>problems</span> <span>than</span> <span>the</span> <span>the</span> <span>average</span> <span>company</span> <span>has</span>.<br><br><span>We</span> <span>are</span> <span>in</span> <span>an</span> <span>economic</span> <span>environment</span> <span>in</span> <span>which</span> <span>the</span> <span>proportion</span> <span>of</span> <span>Americans</span> <span>who</span> <span>are</span> <span>insured</span> <span>with</span> <span>health</span> <span>insurance</span> <span>is</span> <span>falling</span> <span>the</span> <span>most</span> <span>it</span> <span>ever</span> <span>has</span> <span>in</span> <span>history</span>, <span>so</span> <span>the</span> <span>number</span> <span>of</span> <span>potential</span> <span>customers</span> <span>this</span> <span>company</span> <span>will</span> <span>have</span> <span>faces</span> <span>horrible</span> <span>headwinds</span>, <span>even</span> <span>if</span> <span>its</span> <span>products</span> <span>in</span> <span>development</span> <span>prove</span> <span>useful</span>.&nbsp; <span>Although</span>, <span>there</span> <span>is</span> <span>some</span> <span>safety</span> <span>in</span> <span>the</span> <span>sector</span> <span>overall</span> <span>due</span> <span>to</span> <span>the</span> <span>fact</span> <span>that</span> <span>the</span> <span>government</span> <span>subsidizes</span> <span>health</span> <span>care</span> <span>companies</span> <span>of</span> <span>all</span> <span>sorts</span> <span>to</span> <span>such</span> <span>a</span> <span>great</span> <span>extent</span>.&nbsp; <br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/12/13/814718-132380838492785-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/12/13/814718-132380838492785-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br><p><span>The</span> <span>company's</span> <span>prospects</span> <span>seem</span> <span>to</span> <span>be</span> <span>betting</span> <span>on</span> <span>the</span> <span>success</span> <span>of</span> <span>a</span> <span>weight</span> <span>loss</span> <span>drug</span>.&nbsp; <span>In</span> <span>short</span>, <span>I</span> <span>don't</span> <span>think</span> <span>weight</span> <span>loss</span> <span>drugs</span> <span>are</span> <span>worthy</span> <span>of</span> <span>my</span> <span>investment</span> <span>money</span>.&nbsp; <span>In</span> <span>fact</span>, <span>when</span> <span>I</span> <span>get</span> <span>weight</span> <span>loss</span> <span>drug</span> <span>advertisements</span>, <span>I</span> <span>tear</span> <span>them</span> <span>up</span> <span>and</span> <span>throw</span> <span>them</span> <span>in</span> <span>the</span> <span>trash</span>.&nbsp; <span>I</span> <span>think</span> <span>any</span> <span>management</span> <span>team</span> <span>spending</span> <span>time</span> <span>and</span> <span>money</span> <span>on</span> <span>research</span> <span>for</span> <span>such</span> <span>a</span> <span>product</span> <span>is</span> <span>wasting</span> <span>resources</span>, <span>especially</span> <span>when</span> <span>they</span> <span>have</span> <span>no</span> <span>profits</span> <span>to</span> <span>show</span> <span>for</span> <span>their</span> <span>efforts</span>.</p><p><span>Fundamentally</span>, <span>the</span> <span>stock</span> <span>is</span> <span>a</span> <span>wreck</span>.&nbsp; <span>The</span> <span>company</span> <span>is</span> <span>fairly</span> <span>overleveraged</span> <span>with</span> <span>a</span> <span>debt</span> <span>to</span> <span>equity</span> <span>ratio</span> <span>of</span> <span>nearly</span> <span>3X</span>, <span>a</span> <span>price</span>/<span>book</span> <span>ratio</span> <span>of</span> <span>over</span> <span>9</span>, <span>ROE</span> <span>of</span> -<span>165</span>%, <span>price</span>/<span>sales</span> <span>of</span> <span>over</span> <span>22</span>, <span>and</span> <span>a</span> <span>dwindling</span> <span>level</span> <span>of</span> <span>assets</span> <span>and</span> <span>equity</span> <span>while</span> <span>debt</span> <span>has</span> <span>risen</span> <span>dramatically</span>.&nbsp; <span>These</span> <span>are</span> <span>all</span> <span>very</span> <span>negative</span> <span>signs</span>, <span>and</span> <span>other</span> <span>than</span> <span>as</span> <span>a</span> <span>pure</span> <span>gamble</span> <span>on</span> <span>a</span> <span>miracle</span> <span>drug</span> <span>being</span> <span>developed</span> <span>which</span> <span>makes</span> <span>the</span> <span>stockowners</span> <span>rich</span>, <span>I</span> <span>call</span> <span>this</span> <span>stock</span> <span>worthless</span>.&nbsp; <span>If</span> <span>the</span> <span>European</span> <span>crisis</span> <span>continues</span> <span>to</span> <span>accelerate</span> <span>and</span> <span>the</span> <span>lending</span> <span>market</span> <span>begins</span> <span>to</span> <span>worsen</span>, (<span>ARNA</span>) <span>is</span> <span>one</span> <span>of</span> <span>the</span> <span>companies</span> <span>I</span>&nbsp;<span>would</span> <span>most</span> <span>expect</span> <span>to</span> <span>have</span> <span>trouble</span> <span>continuing</span> <span>operations</span> <span>due</span> <span>to</span> <span>a</span> <span>lack</span> <span>of</span> <span>financing</span>.&nbsp; <span>Anyone</span> <span>holding</span> <span>shares</span> <span>with</span> <span>gains</span> <span>would</span> <span>not</span> <span>be</span> <span>ignorant</span> <span>to</span> <span>sell</span> <span>and</span> <span>cash</span> <span>in</span> <span>those</span> <span>gains</span>, <span>unless</span> <span>you</span> <span>believe</span> <span>that</span> <span>weight</span> <span>loss</span> <span>drugs</span> <span>are</span> <span>good</span> <span>investments</span>.&nbsp; <span>If</span> <span>that</span> <span>is</span> <span>the</span> <span>case</span>, <span>I</span> <span>have</span> <span>a</span> <span>bridge</span> <span>in</span> <span>Brooklyn</span> <span>I'd</span> <span>like</span> <span>to</span> <span>sell</span> <span>you</span>...</p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:41:11 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong><span>Introduction</span>:</strong><br><br><span>There</span> <span>are</span> <span>some</span> <span>stocks</span> <span>which</span> <span>have</span> <span>solid</span> <span>financial</span> <span>statements</span>, <span>a</span> <span>solid</span>, <span>growing</span> <span>business</span>, <span>and</span> <span>a</span> <span>solid</span> <span>market</span> <span>niche</span>.&nbsp; <span>Then</span> <span>there</span> <span>are</span> <span>companies</span> <span>which</span> <span>are</span> <span>doing</span> <span>nothing</span> <span>but</span> <span>taking</span> <span>up</span> <span>space</span>.&nbsp; <span>How</span> <span>analysts</span> <span>or</span> <span>authors</span> <span>can</span> <span>recommend</span> <span>others</span> <span>to</span> <span>buy</span> <span>a</span> <span>stock</span> <span>which</span> <span>is</span> <span>nothing</span> <span>but</span> <span>a</span> <span>speculative</span> <span>play</span> <span>still</span> <span>alludes</span> <span>me</span>.&nbsp; <span>Maybe</span> <span>these</span> <span>so</span> <span>called</span> <span>analysts</span> <span>are</span> <span>getting</span> <span>kickbacks</span> <span>for</span> <span>their</span> <span>so</span> <span>called</span> <span>analysis</span>.&nbsp; <span>Whatever</span> <span>the</span> <span>case</span> <span>may</span> <span>be</span>, <span>what</span> <span>if</span> <span>a</span> <span>real</span> <span>quantitative</span> <span>analyst</span> <span>with</span> <span>no</span> <span>bias</span> <span>tried</span> <span>to</span> <span>value</span> <span>Arena</span> <span>Pharmaceuticals</span>?&nbsp; <span>What</span> <span>would</span> <span>he</span> <span>or</span> <span>she</span> <span>recommend</span>?<br><br><strong>(<span>ARNA</span>)</strong> <span>is</span> <span>a</span> <span>speculative</span> <span>pharmaceutical</span> <span>company</span> <span>which</span> <span>is</span> <span>expected</span> <span>to</span> <span>lose</span> <span>money</span> <span>for</span> <span>the</span> <span>foreseeable</span> <span>future</span>.&nbsp; <span>The</span> <span>stock</span> <span>rises</span> <span>and</span> <span>falls</span> <span>in</span> <span>a</span> <span>very</span> <span>jerky</span> <span>manner</span>, <span>mainly</span> <span>as</span> <span>a</span> <span>result</span> <span>of</span> <span>FDA</span> <span>related</span> <span>news</span> <span>about</span> <span>its</span> <span>drugs</span>.&nbsp; <span>The</span> <span>purpose</span> <span>of</span> <span>investing</span> <span>in</span> <span>such</span> <span>a</span> <span>company</span> <span>would</span> <span>be</span> <span>to</span> <span>provide</span> <span>growth</span> <span>to</span> <span>a</span> <span>portfolio</span>.&nbsp; <span>There</span> <span>is</span> <span>no</span> <span>dividend</span>, <span>no</span> <span>profits</span>, <span>and</span> <span>no</span> <span>reason</span> <span>to</span> <span>want</span> <span>to</span> <span>own</span> <span>this</span> <span>stock</span> <span>at</span> <span>this</span> <span>time</span> <span>other</span> <span>than</span> <span>as</span> <span>speculation</span>.<br><br><strong><span>Valuation</span>:</strong><br><br><span>Because</span> <span>most</span> <span>stock</span> <span>moves</span> <span>are</span> <span>unpredictable</span>, <span>CAPM</span> <span>analysis</span> <span>can</span> <span>help</span> <span>determine</span> <span>whether</span> <span>a</span> <span>company</span> <span>is</span> <span>overvalued</span> <span>or</span> <span>undervalued</span> <span>using</span> <span>statistical</span> <span>measurements</span> <span>rather</span> <span>than</span> <span>useless</span> <span>technical</span> <span>analysis</span>.&nbsp; <span>The</span> <span>beta</span> <span>of</span> <span>the</span> <span>company</span> <span>is</span> <span>.70</span>.&nbsp; <span>Over</span> <span>the</span> <span>past</span> <span>year</span> <span>the</span> <span>stock</span> <span>is</span> <span>up</span> <span>40</span>% <span>while</span> <span>the</span> <span>S</span>&amp;<span>P</span> <span>is</span> <span>up</span> <span>0</span>%.&nbsp; <span>This</span> <span>means</span> <span>that</span> <span>from</span> <span>a</span> <span>basic</span> <span>statistical</span> <span>level</span>, <span>ARNA</span> <span>is</span> <span>40</span>% <span>overvalued</span>, <span>unless</span> <span>the</span> <span>S</span>&amp;<span>P</span> <span>rockets</span> <span>upwards</span> <span>soon</span>.&nbsp; <span>In</span> <span>other</span> <span>words</span>, <span>what's</span> <span>better</span> <span>about</span> (<span>ARNA</span>) <span>than</span> <span>the</span> <span>S</span>&amp;<span>P</span> <span>500</span>?&nbsp; <span>I</span> <span>see</span> <span>nothing</span>.&nbsp; <span>In</span> <span>fact</span> <span>I</span> <span>see</span> <span>many</span> <span>more</span> <span>problems</span> <span>than</span> <span>the</span> <span>the</span> <span>average</span> <span>company</span> <span>has</span>.<br><br><span>We</span> <span>are</span> <span>in</span> <span>an</span> <span>economic</span> <span>environment</span> <span>in</span> <span>which</span> <span>the</span> <span>proportion</span> <span>of</span> <span>Americans</span> <span>who</span> <span>are</span> <span>insured</span> <span>with</span> <span>health</span> <span>insurance</span> <span>is</span> <span>falling</span> <span>the</span> <span>most</span> <span>it</span> <span>ever</span> <span>has</span> <span>in</span> <span>history</span>, <span>so</span> <span>the</span> <span>number</span> <span>of</span> <span>potential</span> <span>customers</span> <span>this</span> <span>company</span> <span>will</span> <span>have</span> <span>faces</span> <span>horrible</span> <span>headwinds</span>, <span>even</span> <span>if</span> <span>its</span> <span>products</span> <span>in</span> <span>development</span> <span>prove</span> <span>useful</span>.&nbsp; <span>Although</span>, <span>there</span> <span>is</span> <span>some</span> <span>safety</span> <span>in</span> <span>the</span> <span>sector</span> <span>overall</span> <span>due</span> <span>to</span> <span>the</span> <span>fact</span> <span>that</span> <span>the</span> <span>government</span> <span>subsidizes</span> <span>health</span> <span>care</span> <span>companies</span> <span>of</span> <span>all</span> <span>sorts</span> <span>to</span> <span>such</span> <span>a</span> <span>great</span> <span>extent</span>.&nbsp; <br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/12/13/814718-132380838492785-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/12/13/814718-132380838492785-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br><p><span>The</span> <span>company's</span> <span>prospects</span> <span>seem</span> <span>to</span> <span>be</span> <span>betting</span> <span>on</span> <span>the</span> <span>success</span> <span>of</span> <span>a</span> <span>weight</span> <span>loss</span> <span>drug</span>.&nbsp; <span>In</span> <span>short</span>, <span>I</span> <span>don't</span> <span>think</span> <span>weight</span> <span>loss</span> <span>drugs</span> <span>are</span> <span>worthy</span> <span>of</span> <span>my</span> <span>investment</span> <span>money</span>.&nbsp; <span>In</span> <span>fact</span>, <span>when</span> <span>I</span> <span>get</span> <span>weight</span> <span>loss</span> <span>drug</span> <span>advertisements</span>, <span>I</span> <span>tear</span> <span>them</span> <span>up</span> <span>and</span> <span>throw</span> <span>them</span> <span>in</span> <span>the</span> <span>trash</span>.&nbsp; <span>I</span> <span>think</span> <span>any</span> <span>management</span> <span>team</span> <span>spending</span> <span>time</span> <span>and</span> <span>money</span> <span>on</span> <span>research</span> <span>for</span> <span>such</span> <span>a</span> <span>product</span> <span>is</span> <span>wasting</span> <span>resources</span>, <span>especially</span> <span>when</span> <span>they</span> <span>have</span> <span>no</span> <span>profits</span> <span>to</span> <span>show</span> <span>for</span> <span>their</span> <span>efforts</span>.</p><p><span>Fundamentally</span>, <span>the</span> <span>stock</span> <span>is</span> <span>a</span> <span>wreck</span>.&nbsp; <span>The</span> <span>company</span> <span>is</span> <span>fairly</span> <span>overleveraged</span> <span>with</span> <span>a</span> <span>debt</span> <span>to</span> <span>equity</span> <span>ratio</span> <span>of</span> <span>nearly</span> <span>3X</span>, <span>a</span> <span>price</span>/<span>book</span> <span>ratio</span> <span>of</span> <span>over</span> <span>9</span>, <span>ROE</span> <span>of</span> -<span>165</span>%, <span>price</span>/<span>sales</span> <span>of</span> <span>over</span> <span>22</span>, <span>and</span> <span>a</span> <span>dwindling</span> <span>level</span> <span>of</span> <span>assets</span> <span>and</span> <span>equity</span> <span>while</span> <span>debt</span> <span>has</span> <span>risen</span> <span>dramatically</span>.&nbsp; <span>These</span> <span>are</span> <span>all</span> <span>very</span> <span>negative</span> <span>signs</span>, <span>and</span> <span>other</span> <span>than</span> <span>as</span> <span>a</span> <span>pure</span> <span>gamble</span> <span>on</span> <span>a</span> <span>miracle</span> <span>drug</span> <span>being</span> <span>developed</span> <span>which</span> <span>makes</span> <span>the</span> <span>stockowners</span> <span>rich</span>, <span>I</span> <span>call</span> <span>this</span> <span>stock</span> <span>worthless</span>.&nbsp; <span>If</span> <span>the</span> <span>European</span> <span>crisis</span> <span>continues</span> <span>to</span> <span>accelerate</span> <span>and</span> <span>the</span> <span>lending</span> <span>market</span> <span>begins</span> <span>to</span> <span>worsen</span>, (<span>ARNA</span>) <span>is</span> <span>one</span> <span>of</span> <span>the</span> <span>companies</span> <span>I</span>&nbsp;<span>would</span> <span>most</span> <span>expect</span> <span>to</span> <span>have</span> <span>trouble</span> <span>continuing</span> <span>operations</span> <span>due</span> <span>to</span> <span>a</span> <span>lack</span> <span>of</span> <span>financing</span>.&nbsp; <span>Anyone</span> <span>holding</span> <span>shares</span> <span>with</span> <span>gains</span> <span>would</span> <span>not</span> <span>be</span> <span>ignorant</span> <span>to</span> <span>sell</span> <span>and</span> <span>cash</span> <span>in</span> <span>those</span> <span>gains</span>, <span>unless</span> <span>you</span> <span>believe</span> <span>that</span> <span>weight</span> <span>loss</span> <span>drugs</span> <span>are</span> <span>good</span> <span>investments</span>.&nbsp; <span>If</span> <span>that</span> <span>is</span> <span>the</span> <span>case</span>, <span>I</span> <span>have</span> <span>a</span> <span>bridge</span> <span>in</span> <span>Brooklyn</span> <span>I'd</span> <span>like</span> <span>to</span> <span>sell</span> <span>you</span>...</p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/arna/instablogs">arna</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/short ideas">short ideas</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>George Economou's Punishment, If I Were a Securities Law Judge:</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/814718-erik-gholtoghian/241669-george-economou-s-punishment-if-i-were-a-securities-law-judge?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">241669</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<br><p>If I was the legal judge in place at the SEC, and I set all of the rules and punishments that individuals would get in this country when tampering with the securities laws, the exact punishment I would enact over George Economou would be that his entire position in Dryships be forfeited.</p>His flagrant abuses of the securities laws, his absolute total disregard for the safety and securitiy of the United States based investors which placed faith in him, if I were a judge, I would take pleasure in announcing to the court, &quot;Ladies and Gentleman... Mr. Economou, your sentence is complete loss of investment, with the proceeds to be distributed to the shareholders of date.&nbsp; You are no longer in control of this company anymore; you are a shameful man, a con artist, a thief, and should live in shame for eternity.&nbsp; No further punishement.&nbsp; Get the hell out of my courtroom, and take your goons with you...<p>This would transfer control of the ownership interests in the company from another country into the United States.&nbsp; If the international jurisdiction had a problem with my decision, I would immediately enact emergency powers and halt trading in the stock and investigate options for a complete ban on ADRs, American Depository Receipts.&nbsp; The very chance that international criminals are able to plunder the United States through continual share dilutions and fraud reaches well beyond the law.&nbsp; The issue reaches all the way into the currency markets.&nbsp; The United States should be tough enough that the securities markets should always be regulated closely enough such that at all times investors should be able to rely on their own currencies never being used against them at the international level.&nbsp; Meaning, no investor in the US&nbsp;should have to worry about international robber barons holding the keys to their retirement plans.&nbsp;</p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sun, 04 Dec 2011 14:11:01 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<br><p>If I was the legal judge in place at the SEC, and I set all of the rules and punishments that individuals would get in this country when tampering with the securities laws, the exact punishment I would enact over George Economou would be that his entire position in Dryships be forfeited.</p>His flagrant abuses of the securities laws, his absolute total disregard for the safety and securitiy of the United States based investors which placed faith in him, if I were a judge, I would take pleasure in announcing to the court, &quot;Ladies and Gentleman... Mr. Economou, your sentence is complete loss of investment, with the proceeds to be distributed to the shareholders of date.&nbsp; You are no longer in control of this company anymore; you are a shameful man, a con artist, a thief, and should live in shame for eternity.&nbsp; No further punishement.&nbsp; Get the hell out of my courtroom, and take your goons with you...<p>This would transfer control of the ownership interests in the company from another country into the United States.&nbsp; If the international jurisdiction had a problem with my decision, I would immediately enact emergency powers and halt trading in the stock and investigate options for a complete ban on ADRs, American Depository Receipts.&nbsp; The very chance that international criminals are able to plunder the United States through continual share dilutions and fraud reaches well beyond the law.&nbsp; The issue reaches all the way into the currency markets.&nbsp; The United States should be tough enough that the securities markets should always be regulated closely enough such that at all times investors should be able to rely on their own currencies never being used against them at the international level.&nbsp; Meaning, no investor in the US&nbsp;should have to worry about international robber barons holding the keys to their retirement plans.&nbsp;</p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/drys/instablogs">drys</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/orig/instablogs">orig</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/shipping">shipping</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Technology, Golden Growth, and the Future: A Verbal Illusion</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/814718-erik-gholtoghian/237975-technology-golden-growth-and-the-future-a-verbal-illusion?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">237975</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>Plain and simple, the WTO, NAFTA, free trade, the housing crisis, and all the rest.&nbsp; It is all related.&nbsp; Everything was caused by Chinese currency manipulation of the US dollar.&nbsp; Free trade with other countries caused it too.&nbsp; This is allowed by the US and isn't pressed because the long run result is it makes the United States the technology leader of the world.</p><p>In other words, China finds it artificially easy to build factories and ship products to buyers in the US because of the currency situation.&nbsp; The US on the other hand is becoming a country without dirty industry.&nbsp; A country in which the only way to survive and compete is to reduce cost through technological means to compete with currency manipulators.&nbsp; The end result is a country which essentially eliminates costs of production of all types.</p><p>My prediction is that 50% of the US working population and possibly students will be telecommuting on a daily basis in as soon as five years.&nbsp; When that gigantic process is completed, the United States will have officially taken over the world economy by regaining the illusory capital flows it has lost. </p><p>You see, the US is so powerful that there truly is no long run competition.&nbsp; As the Chinese have devalued their own currency for decades, the US has been forced to adapt into the absolute top technology-based economy in the world.&nbsp; There is no other economic solution for US businesses to survive in the free market.</p><p>Just think back to economics 101.&nbsp; Imagine a very three dimensional, illusory dimension which only Gods can see.&nbsp; The image which should be burned into your mind is the topic of &quot;golden growth.&quot;</p><p>The US is in the process of possibly the largest expansion of golden growth economics in its history.&nbsp; This is not nominal growth; this is growth which re-engineers the very landscape in which we work and play each day.&nbsp; In due time, the trade deficit will finally shrink down to nothing, and the world will witness the most perfectly functioning economy in recorded history.&nbsp; Health care for all who need it.&nbsp; Cars which do not pollute nor require more than the slightest amount of fuel.&nbsp; People will be able to see this in the coming year, emerging from the cocoon.</p><p>It appears to me that the US is destined to become a nation of information technology-based researchers, who work from their homes and earn excellent pay.&nbsp; </p><p>Some look back to the dot com boom as a problem in US economic history, but sometimes it takes something that big to usher in the future.&nbsp; Real estate may even be falling due to a lack of commercial demand over the long run, as companies that used to house people in large skyscrapers no longer need to spend the funds on this.&nbsp; Instead, these companies can save tremendous amounts of money by just designing companies in which all or nearly all of the workers telecommute.</p><p>We could one day see the freeways to big cities in the US nearly empty because so few people commute by car anymore.&nbsp; While countries with artificial funds use those funds to build intricate transportation systems, the US is being forced to due away with transportation entirely.</p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sat, 19 Nov 2011 22:54:45 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p>Plain and simple, the WTO, NAFTA, free trade, the housing crisis, and all the rest.&nbsp; It is all related.&nbsp; Everything was caused by Chinese currency manipulation of the US dollar.&nbsp; Free trade with other countries caused it too.&nbsp; This is allowed by the US and isn't pressed because the long run result is it makes the United States the technology leader of the world.</p><p>In other words, China finds it artificially easy to build factories and ship products to buyers in the US because of the currency situation.&nbsp; The US on the other hand is becoming a country without dirty industry.&nbsp; A country in which the only way to survive and compete is to reduce cost through technological means to compete with currency manipulators.&nbsp; The end result is a country which essentially eliminates costs of production of all types.</p><p>My prediction is that 50% of the US working population and possibly students will be telecommuting on a daily basis in as soon as five years.&nbsp; When that gigantic process is completed, the United States will have officially taken over the world economy by regaining the illusory capital flows it has lost. </p><p>You see, the US is so powerful that there truly is no long run competition.&nbsp; As the Chinese have devalued their own currency for decades, the US has been forced to adapt into the absolute top technology-based economy in the world.&nbsp; There is no other economic solution for US businesses to survive in the free market.</p><p>Just think back to economics 101.&nbsp; Imagine a very three dimensional, illusory dimension which only Gods can see.&nbsp; The image which should be burned into your mind is the topic of &quot;golden growth.&quot;</p><p>The US is in the process of possibly the largest expansion of golden growth economics in its history.&nbsp; This is not nominal growth; this is growth which re-engineers the very landscape in which we work and play each day.&nbsp; In due time, the trade deficit will finally shrink down to nothing, and the world will witness the most perfectly functioning economy in recorded history.&nbsp; Health care for all who need it.&nbsp; Cars which do not pollute nor require more than the slightest amount of fuel.&nbsp; People will be able to see this in the coming year, emerging from the cocoon.</p><p>It appears to me that the US is destined to become a nation of information technology-based researchers, who work from their homes and earn excellent pay.&nbsp; </p><p>Some look back to the dot com boom as a problem in US economic history, but sometimes it takes something that big to usher in the future.&nbsp; Real estate may even be falling due to a lack of commercial demand over the long run, as companies that used to house people in large skyscrapers no longer need to spend the funds on this.&nbsp; Instead, these companies can save tremendous amounts of money by just designing companies in which all or nearly all of the workers telecommute.</p><p>We could one day see the freeways to big cities in the US nearly empty because so few people commute by car anymore.&nbsp; While countries with artificial funds use those funds to build intricate transportation systems, the US is being forced to due away with transportation entirely.</p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/spy/instablogs">spy</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ddm/instablogs">ddm</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/qqq/instablogs">qqq</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Economy">Economy</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Which Carrier Should You Use for Your Iphone 4S?</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/814718-erik-gholtoghian/230444-which-carrier-should-you-use-for-your-iphone-4s?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">230444</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[AT&amp;T (T), Verizon (VZ), and now Sprint (S) all offer Iphone service.&nbsp; Because the Iphone is such a dominant product across the sector, figuring out which company offers the best deal will truly lend insight into each company's relative profits.<br><br>First the deal from Sprint.&nbsp; For unlimited service you pay $99.99 per month not including taxes.&nbsp; The cost of the Iphone 4S 16GB is $199, for a total 2 year cost of <strong>$2600</strong>.<br><p>Verizon allows unlimited calling service but limited data for anywhere from $100 to $200 per month.&nbsp; Average users would be happy with the $140 per month service.&nbsp; The Iphone 4S 16GB costs $199, which brings the two year cost not including taxes to <strong>$3560</strong> for an individual, almost $1000 more than the Sprint option.<br><br>AT&amp;T offers unlimited calling for $135 per month, not including taxes.&nbsp; This also limits data to 4GB per month.&nbsp; The Iphone 4S sells for $199 at AT&amp;T.&nbsp; The total two year cost comes out to be <strong>$3440</strong>; slightly cheaper than Verizon, but significantly more expensive than Sprint's option.<br><br>Because service from Sprint is considered by the public to be nearly identical in quality to both AT&amp;T and Verizon, I think many, many users will likely end up switching to Sprint for their Iphone service.&nbsp; Saving almost $1000 over two years is not something rational consumers will ignore for long.<br><br>For the simple fact that consumers are rational in the long run, and because the economy has still not caught fire to regain high growth rates, analysts ought to recognize that Sprint will lead the industry in Iphone subscriber growth this next quarter or two.&nbsp; With Sprint's profit problems, this is indeed an essential time for this to occur too.</p><p><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/10/25/814718-131960084976503-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.jpg" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/10/25/814718-131960084976503-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.jpg" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a></p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Wed, 26 Oct 2011 00:18:12 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[AT&amp;T (T), Verizon (VZ), and now Sprint (S) all offer Iphone service.&nbsp; Because the Iphone is such a dominant product across the sector, figuring out which company offers the best deal will truly lend insight into each company's relative profits.<br><br>First the deal from Sprint.&nbsp; For unlimited service you pay $99.99 per month not including taxes.&nbsp; The cost of the Iphone 4S 16GB is $199, for a total 2 year cost of <strong>$2600</strong>.<br><p>Verizon allows unlimited calling service but limited data for anywhere from $100 to $200 per month.&nbsp; Average users would be happy with the $140 per month service.&nbsp; The Iphone 4S 16GB costs $199, which brings the two year cost not including taxes to <strong>$3560</strong> for an individual, almost $1000 more than the Sprint option.<br><br>AT&amp;T offers unlimited calling for $135 per month, not including taxes.&nbsp; This also limits data to 4GB per month.&nbsp; The Iphone 4S sells for $199 at AT&amp;T.&nbsp; The total two year cost comes out to be <strong>$3440</strong>; slightly cheaper than Verizon, but significantly more expensive than Sprint's option.<br><br>Because service from Sprint is considered by the public to be nearly identical in quality to both AT&amp;T and Verizon, I think many, many users will likely end up switching to Sprint for their Iphone service.&nbsp; Saving almost $1000 over two years is not something rational consumers will ignore for long.<br><br>For the simple fact that consumers are rational in the long run, and because the economy has still not caught fire to regain high growth rates, analysts ought to recognize that Sprint will lead the industry in Iphone subscriber growth this next quarter or two.&nbsp; With Sprint's profit problems, this is indeed an essential time for this to occur too.</p><p><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/10/25/814718-131960084976503-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.jpg" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/10/25/814718-131960084976503-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.jpg" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a></p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/s/instablogs">s</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/t/instablogs">t</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vz/instablogs">vz</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/telecom">telecom</category>
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    <item>
      <title>The Five Riskiest Financial Stocks of 2011</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/814718-erik-gholtoghian/136574-the-five-riskiest-financial-stocks-of-2011?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">136574</guid>
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        <![CDATA[With the market seemingly in recovery mode, investors who are bullish on the economy might be looking for a way to increase risk and return in their portfolios.&nbsp; If you need more exposure to financials, buying these stocks might be worth your time.<br><br>Drumroll please...<br><br>Number 5:&nbsp; With a beta of 3.2, <strong>Genworth Financial&nbsp;(GNW)</strong> starts the list at number five.&nbsp; It is mainly an insurance company.&nbsp; The company is earning significant profits and is forecast to see 50+% profit growth for the next several years.<br><br>Number 4:&nbsp; <strong>Calimos Asset Management Inc&nbsp;(CLMS)</strong>.&nbsp; The company is actually quite profitable and recently raised its dividend.&nbsp; The beta is 3.3.<br><br>Number 3:&nbsp; <strong>The PMI&nbsp;Group&nbsp;(PMI)</strong>, a mortage insurance company, with a beta of 3.4 takes the third riskiest financial spot.&nbsp; This company is saddled with debt and earnings are expected to be negative for 2011.<br><br>Number 2:&nbsp; <strong>American International Group&nbsp;(AIG)</strong> comes in at number two with a beta of 3.7.&nbsp; AIG is an infamous insurance company, and earnings are estimated to be positive for the next two years.&nbsp; It is possible the bad repuation AIG has gained may have created value in the stock from investors avoiding it like the plague regardless of its fundamentals.<br><br>Number 1:&nbsp; <strong>Bank of Ireland&nbsp;(IRE)</strong> is the riskiest financial stock traded in the US at this time.&nbsp; It has a beta of 4.2.&nbsp; S&amp;P has the company at credit watch negative at this time.<br><br>You can see below that these stocks have been very volatile versus the S&amp;P500 over the past 3 years.&nbsp; The S&amp;P has outperformed every one of these stocks over this period of time, so if there truly is a bull market, you can rest assured that these high risk stocks will continue to exhibit high risk and return chartacteristics.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/2/7/814718-129709888948054-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.jpg" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/2/7/814718-129709888948054-Erik-Gholtoghian.jpg" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>One should note this isn't a buy or sell recommendation.&nbsp; This is an observation that if one wanted to increase financial sector risk, these five stocks would likely do the best job doing that this year.&nbsp; This is important for a number of reasons, but the biggest is increasing risk can increase returns without relying on margin loans.&nbsp; Meaning, you don't have to expose yourself to margin calls or option decay to gain exposure to risk.&nbsp; Additionally, because these companies offer the HIGHEST&nbsp;risk, it may be accurate to say they deserve a slight premium because they are offering a specific return that no other assets can.<br><br>Because these companies are so volatile, and because you can see that they can change by hundreds of percent in less than a year, there is no need to overexpose yourself to this group of stocks.&nbsp; Allocating only a small portion of your portfolio to these stocks and putting the rest into risk free or low risk assets could prove to be a very effective combination.&nbsp; Essentially a mixture of the riskiest of assets with the least risky of assets.<br><br>On the other hand, if you are bearish, these are the companies to short sell now.<br><br>*Special advice for those seeking precisely measured high beta stocks: Beta is an excellent statistic for determining risk, but in rare cases beta can be misleading.&nbsp; To reduce the margin of error when using beta as a proxy for risk, one might want to consider creating an R<sup>2</sup> aspect into their study.&nbsp; For example, if your beta is high but your explantory power is very low for some stocks and high for others, you may not be able to rely on beta as an accurate measure because some stocks may have exhibited higher betas simply by chance.&nbsp; You could easily calculate betas from stock data and then create a perentile rank to throw out the worst 20% of R<sup>2</sup> scores to make sure that what you end up with is statistically sound high beta stocks relative to the market.&nbsp; <br><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 07 Feb 2011 14:26:01 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[With the market seemingly in recovery mode, investors who are bullish on the economy might be looking for a way to increase risk and return in their portfolios.&nbsp; If you need more exposure to financials, buying these stocks might be worth your time.<br><br>Drumroll please...<br><br>Number 5:&nbsp; With a beta of 3.2, <strong>Genworth Financial&nbsp;(GNW)</strong> starts the list at number five.&nbsp; It is mainly an insurance company.&nbsp; The company is earning significant profits and is forecast to see 50+% profit growth for the next several years.<br><br>Number 4:&nbsp; <strong>Calimos Asset Management Inc&nbsp;(CLMS)</strong>.&nbsp; The company is actually quite profitable and recently raised its dividend.&nbsp; The beta is 3.3.<br><br>Number 3:&nbsp; <strong>The PMI&nbsp;Group&nbsp;(PMI)</strong>, a mortage insurance company, with a beta of 3.4 takes the third riskiest financial spot.&nbsp; This company is saddled with debt and earnings are expected to be negative for 2011.<br><br>Number 2:&nbsp; <strong>American International Group&nbsp;(AIG)</strong> comes in at number two with a beta of 3.7.&nbsp; AIG is an infamous insurance company, and earnings are estimated to be positive for the next two years.&nbsp; It is possible the bad repuation AIG has gained may have created value in the stock from investors avoiding it like the plague regardless of its fundamentals.<br><br>Number 1:&nbsp; <strong>Bank of Ireland&nbsp;(IRE)</strong> is the riskiest financial stock traded in the US at this time.&nbsp; It has a beta of 4.2.&nbsp; S&amp;P has the company at credit watch negative at this time.<br><br>You can see below that these stocks have been very volatile versus the S&amp;P500 over the past 3 years.&nbsp; The S&amp;P has outperformed every one of these stocks over this period of time, so if there truly is a bull market, you can rest assured that these high risk stocks will continue to exhibit high risk and return chartacteristics.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/2/7/814718-129709888948054-Erik-Gholtoghian_origin.jpg" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/2/7/814718-129709888948054-Erik-Gholtoghian.jpg" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>One should note this isn't a buy or sell recommendation.&nbsp; This is an observation that if one wanted to increase financial sector risk, these five stocks would likely do the best job doing that this year.&nbsp; This is important for a number of reasons, but the biggest is increasing risk can increase returns without relying on margin loans.&nbsp; Meaning, you don't have to expose yourself to margin calls or option decay to gain exposure to risk.&nbsp; Additionally, because these companies offer the HIGHEST&nbsp;risk, it may be accurate to say they deserve a slight premium because they are offering a specific return that no other assets can.<br><br>Because these companies are so volatile, and because you can see that they can change by hundreds of percent in less than a year, there is no need to overexpose yourself to this group of stocks.&nbsp; Allocating only a small portion of your portfolio to these stocks and putting the rest into risk free or low risk assets could prove to be a very effective combination.&nbsp; Essentially a mixture of the riskiest of assets with the least risky of assets.<br><br>On the other hand, if you are bearish, these are the companies to short sell now.<br><br>*Special advice for those seeking precisely measured high beta stocks: Beta is an excellent statistic for determining risk, but in rare cases beta can be misleading.&nbsp; To reduce the margin of error when using beta as a proxy for risk, one might want to consider creating an R<sup>2</sup> aspect into their study.&nbsp; For example, if your beta is high but your explantory power is very low for some stocks and high for others, you may not be able to rely on beta as an accurate measure because some stocks may have exhibited higher betas simply by chance.&nbsp; You could easily calculate betas from stock data and then create a perentile rank to throw out the worst 20% of R<sup>2</sup> scores to make sure that what you end up with is statistically sound high beta stocks relative to the market.&nbsp; <br><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aig/instablogs">aig</category>
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      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ire/instablogs">ire</category>
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      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/risk management">risk management</category>
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