Erik Gholtoghian

Long/short equity, bonds, currencies
Erik Gholtoghian
Long/short equity, bonds, currencies
Contributor since: 2011
Company: Erik Gholtoghian
1/13/14
Erik Gholtoghian
Economou's Redemption $DRYS http://seekingalpha.com/a/15m5d
7/10/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Government bonds are absolutely insane. LOL. Unbelievable. TLT is at an all time high. Is this the new normal?
7/10/12
Government is not really protecting you as bond holders. Same money to run the welfare system!
Recession pressure will give treasuries some foundation, but at what point does the game end? Any international/historical examples?
6/28/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Oil is certainly getting weak.
Oil has been very weak. That does not predict the future in either direction.
I think it is solid to use as a foundation for analysis right now though. Oil seems to have reached a point of at least semipermanently low
6/25/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Oil and Natty are starting to deviate pretty dramatically. I wonder who will win?
6/21/12
Erik Gholtoghian
So what you guys think about ARNA? LOL.
6/16/12
Erik Gholtoghian
My proprietary data is showing deflation is getting more intense these days.
6/10/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Mexico appears to be the best place to vacation to this summer.
Do you have insight into the Mexican crime rate 30 miles from the border?
Be careful with what are you wearing in Mexico. If they think you have some money, they are going to look for a opportunity to steal you.
6/8/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Did some on the field research today, and I'm finding anecdotal evidence that the economy is steadily losing steam. People have bad moods..
Dr. Phil said 190,000 sugar daddies in USA, 1.2 million sugar babies, sound like somebody is gonna have to double up! LoL!
The good news is the MIT homeboy still makes $30 mil a year! LoL!
6/4/12
Erik Gholtoghian
What do you guys think about where we are at? I was confused today.
Let's go with that then. lol.
June and July are typically bearish/bull neutral months and with more Euro news. FOMC and slow job growth I wouldn't expect much upside
6/1/12
Erik Gholtoghian
I'm seeing a strong dollar mild recession developing. Article coming soon.
If it's the last thing I do, I will get it through, so help me GOD!!! LOL.
Here is a related article that did post. http://seekingalpha.com/a/dmtr
5/31/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Drybulk stocks look particularly weak at this time. Something may be about to hit the fan in the sector.
5/31/12
That could be true for the Drybulk's but the Rails are holding up ok
I think we are seeing a mild economic change in shipping of goods from a China-US route to a Mexico-US route. Rails should be fine.
5/31/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Wow, high duration treasuries are going hyperbolic. What will the world be like with the 30 yr yielding 2.00%?
5/18/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Facebook will likely lift the market's spirits a bit short term. Most of the bad economic news is already out of the way too.
5/17/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Closed a SPY short hedge today. I see a few deals popping up on the radar.
lots of deals.
I like TMUS quite a bit right now.
5/15/12
Erik Gholtoghian
CPI of 0.0% today and retail sales of only 0.1% and dying jobs is signalling we may already be at the front door of a technical recession.
5/10/12
Erik Gholtoghian
My DRYS trading model predicted a 1% gap up at the open today. It happened nearly to the decimal. Model further predicted the close.
5/10/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Went to a BestBuy store today. The business model seems to be falling apart. Not a sole was buying anything. Slowdown coming is likely.
5/10/12
Soles can't buy anything... souls maybe :P
ha ha. it was soul-free
5/8/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Electric vehicles seem to be heating up faster than expected. Could really hit oil prices soon. Potential trade deficit ender.
5/9/12
With maritime shipping slowing which in turn will slow trucking will affect oil prices more than electric vehicles
CNW......Con-Way Boys had monster quarter, just sayin.....
4/17/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Both Sony and BestBuy will eventually go bankrupt. The question is when rather than if. My guess is less than 5 years.
4/13/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Covered my tiny aapl short. It seems to be rangebound, for now. UNG is truly garbage. Great short.
4/18/12
we agree....UNG will hit $10.00 in a flash bf people can react.....
Covered my aapl short too soon, but I do suspect a hard snap back upwards coming.
4/10/12
Erik Gholtoghian
The proper way to short Apple: Short just one share.
4/10/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Government bonds will explode upwards. They have zero weakness.
4/5/12
Erik Gholtoghian
After working as a tax preparer for this season, I can assure you people, the economy is not sound.
2/11/12
Erik Gholtoghian
I guess the Fed's goal is to get junk bond yields down to 5%.
1/26/12
Erik Gholtoghian
All corporate bonds are severely overvalued now. The result is gold and silver are the only options left to buy.
1/15/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Taking a few months off from writing is very good for you. All my writer's block is gone.
1/10/12
Erik Gholtoghian
I don't see any reason for the market to be positive year to date.
Calm muni waters means additional cash flow for 1% remember the guy with $100 million in savings at 0.02!
The masses will strip him naked and kill him. The poor class is too large.
1/9/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Pretty soon, the mobile phone industry will have zero growth left.
1/9/12
Counting emerging markets, if by pretty soon you mean 20 years then I agree with you.
No, I mean 6 months. Who doesn't have a phone? Are there emerging markets without cell phones? Nope.
1/6/12
Erik Gholtoghian
China is gonna get taken out to the shed in 2012-13
Why do you care about the BDI?
You should check out my article titled, "Yuan Manipulation and Its Effect on Drybulk Valuations." http://seekingalpha.com/a/5zdc
1/4/12
Erik Gholtoghian
Market was too expensive last week; now it is way too expensive.
But Dow was up 6% so we're alive and well. Im just skeptical of an immediate rally
1/4/12
the big cap, blue chip stocks are a crowded trade right now. I'd look for more beta names if I were looking to buy.
12/30/11
Erik Gholtoghian
Welp, that's the year. I beat the S&P500 for the third year in a row. I'll toast to that.
12/29/11
Erik Gholtoghian
One more day of window dressing for portfolio managers for the year.
Re-positioning, Bonus Money goes to work.
Well, I think this latest burst has been for people to spike their yearly returns which will be in the books. Risk reduction likely follows