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  • InvenSense, By The Numbers
    Wed, Apr. 15 INVN 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent design wins allow for quantified projections on the upcoming InvenSense earnings report.
    • I predict this will end the long-established trading range for INVN shares.
    • Market dynamics and updates on the latest news over inclusion in Apple's Watch are also given.
  • The Next Steps For Energy Recovery
     • Tue, Apr. 14 ERII 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Investor sentiment on Energy Recovery recently reached multi-year lows due to a kitchen sink quarter, and doubts surrounding management moves.
    • However there are new reasons to believe that Energy Recovery's technology constitutes a unique, timely and compelling value proposition in the oil & gas markets.
    • The article updates recent events and contrasts investor sentiment with market data.
  • Universal Display: Opportunities And Threats
     • Wed, Mar. 25 OLED 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Universal Display has come a long way since I laid out my bull case for OLED.
    • This article updates the prospects in the face of the latest pricing and developments.
    • Particular attention is given to an announcement made last week, which could constitute a very serious long-term threat.
  • ExOne Inflection Point Slowly Approaching
    Thu, Mar. 19 XONE 13 Comments

    Summary

    • ExOne reported yet another big miss this week.
    • Two recent announcements provide evidence of progress.
    • Color from the conference call is also discussed, contrasting near and long-term prospects.
  • Microvision Deja Vu
       • Tue, Mar. 17 MVIS 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent news should constitute a fundamental change in how investors value Microvision.
    • Validation of the company's technology is similar to a historical event for another company I cover.
    • The two situations are compared and contrasted with an eye towards developing a clearer picture for Microvision valuation going forward.
  • InvenSense: MWC And Apple's Media Event
    Tue, Mar. 10 INVN 51 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense made two significant announcements at the Mobile World Congress.
    • There were also important things to be learned by InvenSense investors at Apple's recent media event.
    • The medium and long-term outlooks for InvenSense are updated.
    • Additional notes for Universal Display are also given.
  • GFI Group Comes To Terms With BGC Partners
    Fri, Feb. 20 BGCP 25 Comments

    Summary

    • As predicted, BGC Partners is successful in its takeover of GFI Group.
    • The long-term SEF opportunity detailed in prior articles now transfers from GFIG to BGCP.
    • The transaction also enables calculation of a new medium-term price target for BGCP.
  • A Short-Term Price Target For BGC Partners
       • Fri, Feb. 13 BGCP 7 Comments

    Summary

    • BGCP reported a second consecutive record quarter and forecast a third.
    • Information from the conference call allows for calculation of a firm $12.45 short-term price target.
    • An update on the takeover of GFI Group is also provided and points to much higher long-term value.
  • InvenSense: What Matters, What Doesn't
       • Tue, Feb. 3 INVN 65 Comments

    Summary

    • Quick summary of Q3 figures and analysis of initial market reaction.
    • Refined calculations on terms of trade with Apple.
    • Current quarter outlook and catalysts.
    • Summary and commentary on longer-term technology development.
    • Long-term valuation analysis and risk factors.
  • Looking Beyond The Hess Earnings Report
       • Thu, Jan. 29 HES 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Hess report earnings on Wednesday morning, and expectations are grim.
    • The company compares unfavorably to peers, making a turnaround the only reason to maintain ownership.
    • The company's assets and prior decisions make that especially unlikely in almost any scenario.
  • InvenSense Q3 FY15 Earnings Preview
    Wed, Jan. 28 INVN 69 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense reports earnings after the bell on Thursday.
    • The recent Apple report gives important clues as to what we'll see in the InvenSense report.
    • Quantified earnings ranges are predicted for InvenSense.
    • Medium-term factors for both companies are also discussed.
  • Update: ExOne Introduces Innovent
    Thu, Jan. 22 XONE 24 Comments

    Summary

    • ExOne has introduced a new additive manufacturing machine and system.
    • Innovent looks like a good strategy for ExOne, and the implications are discussed.
    • Assessment of the current market situation is also updated.
  • Update: Universal Display's Second Largest Customer Halts Production Due To Accident
    Wed, Jan. 14 OLED 38 Comments

    Summary

    • A nitrogen leak has halted production at the LG plant that houses AMOLED production.
    • All operations have been halted at the site.
    • LG is Universal Display's second-largest customer, and has been expected to account for most of its growth in the coming year.
  • Update: BGC Increases Tender Offer For GFI Group Again
    Wed, Jan. 14 BGCP 25 Comments

    Summary

    • BGC Partners has updated its tender offer as of January 13th.
    • New offer price is $5.60, other terms are updated.
    • Other news items and the prospects from this point are discussed.
  • Update: Why InvenSense Is Falling While Other Chip Stocks Rise
    Thu, Jan. 8 INVN 91 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense has dropped dramatically in the face of a rising market.
    • I believe the reason is not lawsuits, but rather an announcement from Intel at CES.
    • The relevance and impact of this announcement is analyzed.
  • Energy Recovery, Last Year And This One
    Thu, Jan. 8 ERII 56 Comments

    Summary

    • Why Energy Recovery has been unable to sell to the oil & gas market before last month.
    • Changes in the past few months will affect company expenses and marketing, as well as sales prospects.
    • Investor sentiment, analyst expectations and current fundamental stock dynamics are also discussed.
  • Universal Display And CES
    Fri, Jan. 2 OLED 37 Comments

    Summary

    • The Consumer Electronics Show runs through the first full week of January.
    • While the show provides a valuable window into future products, it can also create unwarranted volatility for technology suppliers like Universal Display Corp.
    • Analysis and perspective are provided for specific exhibits that are likely to impact UDC and other companies.
  • One Thing Apple Should Do To Preserve Its Market Position
    Dec. 29, 2014 AAPL 35 Comments

    Summary

    • To sustain a technology lead, Apple needs to pay attention to its roots.
    • This strategy is already being successfully used by other companies.
    • A new, seasonal and practical use of funds is suggested, as a first step towards a broader change in policy.
  • Thoughts On A Potential Broadcom Offer For InvenSense
    Dec. 12, 2014 INVN 43 Comments

    Summary

    • A rumor has surfaced that Broadcom is in talks to buy InvenSense.
    • Plausibility and the likely upper limit of a Broadcom offer are examined.
    • Other potential suitors and my own pricing thresholds are also discussed.
  • Energy Recovery Analyst Day: New Products, Markets And Customers
       • Dec. 10, 2014 ERII 47 Comments

    Summary

    • Energy Recovery's Analyst Day contained a wealth of information, and not all of the important points were in the presentation or press announcement.
    • The new VorTeq product for fracking looks truly disruptive.
    • The most immediate reaction, though, will be to a forthcoming announcement of a commercial sale to ConocoPhillips.
  • BGC Partners: A Dickensian Tale
       • Dec. 5, 2014 BGCP 13 Comments

    Summary

    • BGC Partners is just beginning to benefit from sweeping changes in the credit derivatives markets.
    • BGC's buyout offer for rival GFI Group represents a uniquely complementary pairing, and the market is underestimating the chances of success.
    • The value in the current financial metrics for BGCP mitigates downside risk, should the company fail to acquire GFI.
  • InvenSense In The Short And Long Terms
    Nov. 20, 2014 INVN 104 Comments

    Summary

    • The latest 10-Q from InvenSense contains important, unexpected information.
    • Further detail on the supply arrangement with Apple can now be inferred.
    • Options and short positions will have an overriding effect in the near term.
  • Update: ExOne Q3'14 Conference Call Takeaways
    Nov. 14, 2014 XONE 49 Comments

    Summary

    • ExOne has reported Q3'14 earnings, which missed big.
    • Despite that, my share dynamics-based predictions about market reaction to the report are proving correct.
    • Investors should focus on the long term, and the conference call contained several salient points about the company's progress.
  • Update: Universal Display Corp. Q3 Earnings Report
    Nov. 8, 2014 OLED 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Universal Display Corp. has report 3Q14 earnings.
    • The report affirms my repeated warnings about host sales, and Canaccord proved timely in echoing them.
    • The most important figure in the report has nothing to do with host sales and speaks to both the near and medium term prospects for UDC.
  • Universal Display 3Q14 Earnings Preview
       • Nov. 5, 2014 OLED 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Discussion on the quality of Canaccord's host sales warning.
    • 3Q14 earnings are projected with and without host sales.
    • Updates on the latest developments and prospects.
  • Update: InvenSense Q2'15 Earnings
       • Oct. 30, 2014 INVN 143 Comments

    Summary

    • Why InvenSense has reported in-line results on the top line, but missed badly on the bottom.
    • The report shows that management and I were dead wrong about a quick return to historical margins, and that sell-side analysts were wrong about problems with Apple.
    • The report also may solve the mystery about the change in CFOs.
    • Further analysis on where things go from here, and when we may finally have firm Apple figures.
  • Amazon Delta: One Last Hope Or The End Of An Era?
    Oct. 27, 2014 AMZN 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon's latest earnings miss has lead the stock to push the bounds of a long-standing correlation.
    • Fundamental risk factors and metrics are examined.
    • The Delta in AMZN options is likely to be the best pricing indicator while the stock is in transition.
  • InvenSense And The 10-Percenters
       • Oct. 22, 2014 INVN 135 Comments

    Summary

    • An increase in 10 percent customers allows for more accurate forecasting of coming INVN earnings.
    • Data and one interesting point from Apple's report last night are incorporated into new calculations.
    • Other 10-percent customers and longer-term factors are discussed.
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings
    Oct. 16, 2014 OCAT 396 Comments

    Summary

    • ACTC has published interim results.
    • The company has also filed TWO shelf offerings.
    • This represents step 4 of my 7 step process for the company.
    • Future steps and prospects are discussed.
  • 3 Signs That Apple's Next Breakout May Be Its Last
    Oct. 10, 2014 AAPL 326 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple is set to reach new highs with iPhone success.
    • However, 3 recent news items lead me to believe that a new breakout would be coming for all the wrong reasons.
    • Upcoming earnings, recent failures, and historical correlations are also discussed.
  • InvenSense, GT Advanced, And The Importance Of The Balance Sheet
    Oct. 7, 2014 INVN 58 Comments

    Summary

    • Any investment decision should include balance sheet analysis.
    • The impact of InvenSense acquisitions is revisited in light of just released information.
    • The balance sheets for all other stocks on which I currently have a bullish stance are also compared.
  • Universal Display Corp.: Moving Towards The Light And Reaching For Blue Sky
    Sep. 25, 2014 OLED 48 Comments

    Summary

    • Two separate announcements each positively impact UDC's growth prospects.
    • The first updates the near-term outlook for lighting, while the second is a long-awaited tech breakthrough.
    • Valuation is discussed and an updated price target provided.