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Esekla

 
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  • Thoughts On A Potential Broadcom Offer For InvenSense
    Sat, Dec. 13 INVN 23 Comments

    Summary

    • A rumor has surfaced that Broadcom is in talks to buy InvenSense.
    • Plausibility and the likely upper limit of a Broadcom offer are examined.
    • Other potential suitors and my own pricing thresholds are also discussed.
  • Energy Recovery Analyst Day: New Products, Markets And Customers
     • Wed, Dec. 10 ERII 45 Comments

    Summary

    • Energy Recovery's Analyst Day contained a wealth of information, and not all of the important points were in the presentation or press announcement.
    • The new VorTeq product for fracking looks truly disruptive.
    • The most immediate reaction, though, will be to a forthcoming announcement of a commercial sale to ConocoPhillips.
  • BGC Partners: A Dickensian Tale
     • Fri, Dec. 5 BGCP 13 Comments

    Summary

    • BGC Partners is just beginning to benefit from sweeping changes in the credit derivatives markets.
    • BGC's buyout offer for rival GFI Group represents a uniquely complementary pairing, and the market is underestimating the chances of success.
    • The value in the current financial metrics for BGCP mitigates downside risk, should the company fail to acquire GFI.
  • InvenSense In The Short And Long Terms
    Thu, Nov. 20 INVN 102 Comments

    Summary

    • The latest 10-Q from InvenSense contains important, unexpected information.
    • Further detail on the supply arrangement with Apple can now be inferred.
    • Options and short positions will have an overriding effect in the near term.
  • Update: ExOne Q3'14 Conference Call Takeaways
    Fri, Nov. 14 XONE 36 Comments

    Summary

    • ExOne has reported Q3'14 earnings, which missed big.
    • Despite that, my share dynamics-based predictions about market reaction to the report are proving correct.
    • Investors should focus on the long term, and the conference call contained several salient points about the company's progress.
  • Update: Universal Display Corp. Q3 Earnings Report
    Sat, Nov. 8 OLED 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Universal Display Corp. has report 3Q14 earnings.
    • The report affirms my repeated warnings about host sales, and Canaccord proved timely in echoing them.
    • The most important figure in the report has nothing to do with host sales and speaks to both the near and medium term prospects for UDC.
  • Universal Display 3Q14 Earnings Preview
       • Wed, Nov. 5 OLED 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Discussion on the quality of Canaccord's host sales warning.
    • 3Q14 earnings are projected with and without host sales.
    • Updates on the latest developments and prospects.
  • Update: InvenSense Q2'15 Earnings
       • Thu, Oct. 30 INVN 143 Comments

    Summary

    • Why InvenSense has reported in-line results on the top line, but missed badly on the bottom.
    • The report shows that management and I were dead wrong about a quick return to historical margins, and that sell-side analysts were wrong about problems with Apple.
    • The report also may solve the mystery about the change in CFOs.
    • Further analysis on where things go from here, and when we may finally have firm Apple figures.
  • Amazon Delta: One Last Hope Or The End Of An Era?
    Mon, Oct. 27 AMZN 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon's latest earnings miss has lead the stock to push the bounds of a long-standing correlation.
    • Fundamental risk factors and metrics are examined.
    • The Delta in AMZN options is likely to be the best pricing indicator while the stock is in transition.
  • InvenSense And The 10-Percenters
       • Wed, Oct. 22 INVN 135 Comments

    Summary

    • An increase in 10 percent customers allows for more accurate forecasting of coming INVN earnings.
    • Data and one interesting point from Apple's report last night are incorporated into new calculations.
    • Other 10-percent customers and longer-term factors are discussed.
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings
    Thu, Oct. 16 OCAT 292 Comments

    Summary

    • ACTC has published interim results.
    • The company has also filed TWO shelf offerings.
    • This represents step 4 of my 7 step process for the company.
    • Future steps and prospects are discussed.
  • 3 Signs That Apple's Next Breakout May Be Its Last
    Fri, Oct. 10 AAPL 314 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple is set to reach new highs with iPhone success.
    • However, 3 recent news items lead me to believe that a new breakout would be coming for all the wrong reasons.
    • Upcoming earnings, recent failures, and historical correlations are also discussed.
  • InvenSense, GT Advanced, And The Importance Of The Balance Sheet
    Tue, Oct. 7 INVN 58 Comments

    Summary

    • Any investment decision should include balance sheet analysis.
    • The impact of InvenSense acquisitions is revisited in light of just released information.
    • The balance sheets for all other stocks on which I currently have a bullish stance are also compared.
  • Universal Display Corp.: Moving Towards The Light And Reaching For Blue Sky
    Thu, Sep. 25 OLED 47 Comments

    Summary

    • Two separate announcements each positively impact UDC's growth prospects.
    • The first updates the near-term outlook for lighting, while the second is a long-awaited tech breakthrough.
    • Valuation is discussed and an updated price target provided.
  • InvenSense: More On The iPhone Teardowns
    Tue, Sep. 23 INVN 104 Comments

    Summary

    • A second tear-down and analyst actions have complicated matters.
    • While my recent warnings have been validated, I think the reasons for concern have now passed.
    • Additional explanation of my prior calculations is also given.
  • InvenSense And The iPhone Tear-Downs
       • Mon, Sep. 22 INVN 53 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense has won a slot in both new iPhones.
    • This validates my long-standing claim that InvenSense would get an Apple design win only when the latter company introduced a wearable.
    • The financial impact of the win is estimated, and risk factors are discussed.
  • Universal Display, Apple And The Future Of Displays
       • Sat, Sep. 20 OLED 38 Comments

    Summary

    • This morning's news, including iPhone tear-downs, makes it clear that Apple, and the display industry at large, is at the beginning of a transition to AMOLED screens.
    • Universal Display is the primary beneficiary of this trend.
    • The next big AMOLED producer and impact on other stocks as the industry develops are also discussed.
  • Advanced Cell Technology Annual Meeting Announcement: A Harbinger Of...?
    Fri, Sep. 12 OCAT 230 Comments

    Summary

    • Advanced Cell Technology has scheduled its Annual Meeting.
    • The company intends to change its name to Ocata Therapeutics.
    • The proposed increase in authorized shares is a harbinger of things to come.
  • Update: InvenSense And New Apple Products
    Tue, Sep. 9 INVN 61 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple has announced new products which are anticipated to use InvenSense parts.
    • Details of the announcement give us clues as to which spots InvenSense has won.
    • The new Apple Watch is the most important announcement and it contains some features whose impact will be at least as important as the hardware.
    • The introduction of the watch confirms at least one of my long-standing predictions regarding InvenSense gaining Apple as a customer.
  • Update: GFIG Group Competing Offer
    Tue, Sep. 9 GFIG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • BGC Partners has made a new offer to buy GFI Group.
    • The terms validate my assertion the proposed CME transaction severely undervalued GFIG shares.
    • Additional details released in the announcement also validate my opinion of GFI management's role.
    • Next steps and suggestions for appropriately compensating common shareholders are discussed.
  • Update: InvenSense And Apple Sneak Peek
    Wed, Sep. 3 INVN 57 Comments

    Summary

    • A sneak peek at the iPhone 6 has implications for InvenSense.
    • The latest reports could mean I'm wrong about a long-time prediction regarding a design win with Apple.
    • However, recent insider sales give additional evidence that I'm right where it counts.
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Reverse Split
    Thu, Aug. 28 OCAT 169 Comments

    Summary

    • Advanced Cell Technology has completed a reverse split.
    • This is one of the 7 steps which I previously outlined for restoring shareholder value and trust.
    • While not fundamentally significant on its own, this event is a harbinger of good things to come.
  • Update: ExOne Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 14 XONE 12 Comments

    Summary

    • ExOne has announced 2Q14 earnings.
    • The conference call shows both opportunity and missteps in the company's recent development.
    • The timing of opportunity from my initial coverage was wrong, as I warned before most damage was done, but the long-term bull case has not been skewered yet.
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call
    Tue, Aug. 12 OCAT 71 Comments

    Summary

    • Advanced Cell Technology held a corporate update conference call last night.
    • Three new pieces of information were presented.
    • All information in the call affirms the process I outlined for rebuilding shareholder value and trust.
  • Update: Universal Display Corp. Earnings
    Mon, Aug. 11 OLED 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Universal Display reported 2Q14 earnings.
    • While my industry checks were very accurate on material volumes, that prediction wound up being useless due to unexpected pricing pressure.
    • Non-headline numbers from the report are the most important data points for predicting the pace of continued growth.
  • Update: Energy Recovery Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 7 ERII 125 Comments

    Summary

    • Energy Recovery has just released its 2Q14 earnings report, which missed estimates, but still represents improvement.
    • Shares have realized the 30% decline I warned about in my last article.
    • New catalysts are scheduled for the coming days and months.
  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company
    Thu, Aug. 7 OCAT 66 Comments

    Summary

    • ACT's new management is taking right steps to rebuild shareholder value and trust, but success is far from assured.
    • A broad method for quantifying share price in the event of a successful transition to Phase II is discussed.
    • The actual inputs to these calculations will depend almost entirely on the details presented in the publication of the company's Phase I results.
    • ACT has just scheduled a conference call for Monday in order to provide a "corporate update".
  • Universal Display Corp. In The Short And Long Terms
       • Wed, Aug. 6 OLED 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Summary of recent events.
    • Earnings predictions and points to look for in Thursday's report.
    • Longer-term growth factors.
  • Update: GFI Group Acquisition
    Wed, Jul. 30 GFIG 6 Comments

    Summary

    • GFI Group is selling its software businesses to CME Group.
    • The transaction validates one of the predictions from my October Pro article, and represents a 49% annualized return from that point.
    • However, the deal effectively takes GFI's SEF private and likely denies its current shareholders much greater long-term value.
    • There is already evidence that the terms of the deal may need to improve for GFIG shareholders.
  • Update: InvenSense Earnings
    Tue, Jul. 29 INVN 44 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense has reported mixed Q1 '15 earnings.
    • As predicted in my preview article, Apple clearly did not emerge as a current customer but continues to be anticipated.
    • The impact of acquisitions is yet to be fully recognized, and further disappointment for the coming quarter remains a distinct possibility.
  • Update: Tesla Gigafactory Financing And Earnings
    Mon, Jul. 28 TSLA 217 Comments

    Summary

    • Nikkei has reported initial and eventual Panasonic investments in Tesla's Gigafactory.
    • This additional investment by Panasonic in Tesla helps to confirm the long-term plan and valuation I laid out when covering Tesla's convertible bond sale.
    • An announcement in the upcoming earnings report would be right in line with the originally projected time-line.
    • Other recent news gives investors reason to focus on such progress in the long-term plan rather than this quarter's numbers.
  • Is InvenSense About To Register Another Jolt?
    Mon, Jul. 28 INVN 33 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense reports earnings on Tuesday.
    • Recent events have produced an unsustainable slingshot effect in INVN share price.
    • Although InvenSense will get an Apple design win, new evidence indicates that investors may have to wait yet another quarter for proof.
    • Methodology for current and after-earnings valuation.