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  • Looking Beyond The Hess Earnings Report
     • Today, 6:15 AM HES 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Hess report earnings on Wednesday morning, and expectations are grim.
    • The company compares unfavorably to peers, making a turnaround the only reason to maintain ownership.
    • The company's assets and prior decisions make that especially unlikely in almost any scenario.
  • InvenSense Q3 FY15 Earnings Preview
    Yesterday, 11:17 PM INVN 31 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense reports earnings after the bell on Thursday.
    • The recent Apple report gives important clues as to what we'll see in the InvenSense report.
    • Quantified earnings ranges are predicted for InvenSense.
    • Medium-term factors for both companies are also discussed.
  • Update: ExOne Introduces Innovent
    Thu, Jan. 22 XONE 13 Comments

    Summary

    • ExOne has introduced a new additive manufacturing machine and system.
    • Innovent looks like a good strategy for ExOne, and the implications are discussed.
    • Assessment of the current market situation is also updated.
  • Update: Universal Display's Second Largest Customer Halts Production Due To Accident
    Wed, Jan. 14 OLED 36 Comments

    Summary

    • A nitrogen leak has halted production at the LG plant that houses AMOLED production.
    • All operations have been halted at the site.
    • LG is Universal Display's second-largest customer, and has been expected to account for most of its growth in the coming year.
  • Update: BGC Increases Tender Offer For GFI Group Again
    Wed, Jan. 14 BGCP 24 Comments

    Summary

    • BGC Partners has updated its tender offer as of January 13th.
    • New offer price is $5.60, other terms are updated.
    • Other news items and the prospects from this point are discussed.
  • Update: Why InvenSense Is Falling While Other Chip Stocks Rise
    Thu, Jan. 8 INVN 91 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense has dropped dramatically in the face of a rising market.
    • I believe the reason is not lawsuits, but rather an announcement from Intel at CES.
    • The relevance and impact of this announcement is analyzed.
  • Energy Recovery, Last Year And This One
    Thu, Jan. 8 ERII 40 Comments

    Summary

    • Why Energy Recovery has been unable to sell to the oil & gas market before last month.
    • Changes in the past few months will affect company expenses and marketing, as well as sales prospects.
    • Investor sentiment, analyst expectations and current fundamental stock dynamics are also discussed.
  • Universal Display And CES
    Fri, Jan. 2 OLED 36 Comments

    Summary

    • The Consumer Electronics Show runs through the first full week of January.
    • While the show provides a valuable window into future products, it can also create unwarranted volatility for technology suppliers like Universal Display Corp.
    • Analysis and perspective are provided for specific exhibits that are likely to impact UDC and other companies.
  • One Thing Apple Should Do To Preserve Its Market Position
    Dec. 29, 2014 AAPL 31 Comments

    Summary

    • To sustain a technology lead, Apple needs to pay attention to its roots.
    • This strategy is already being successfully used by other companies.
    • A new, seasonal and practical use of funds is suggested, as a first step towards a broader change in policy.
  • Thoughts On A Potential Broadcom Offer For InvenSense
    Dec. 12, 2014 INVN 43 Comments

    Summary

    • A rumor has surfaced that Broadcom is in talks to buy InvenSense.
    • Plausibility and the likely upper limit of a Broadcom offer are examined.
    • Other potential suitors and my own pricing thresholds are also discussed.
  • Energy Recovery Analyst Day: New Products, Markets And Customers
       • Dec. 10, 2014 ERII 47 Comments

    Summary

    • Energy Recovery's Analyst Day contained a wealth of information, and not all of the important points were in the presentation or press announcement.
    • The new VorTeq product for fracking looks truly disruptive.
    • The most immediate reaction, though, will be to a forthcoming announcement of a commercial sale to ConocoPhillips.
  • BGC Partners: A Dickensian Tale
       • Dec. 5, 2014 BGCP 13 Comments

    Summary

    • BGC Partners is just beginning to benefit from sweeping changes in the credit derivatives markets.
    • BGC's buyout offer for rival GFI Group represents a uniquely complementary pairing, and the market is underestimating the chances of success.
    • The value in the current financial metrics for BGCP mitigates downside risk, should the company fail to acquire GFI.
  • InvenSense In The Short And Long Terms
    Nov. 20, 2014 INVN 104 Comments

    Summary

    • The latest 10-Q from InvenSense contains important, unexpected information.
    • Further detail on the supply arrangement with Apple can now be inferred.
    • Options and short positions will have an overriding effect in the near term.
  • Update: ExOne Q3'14 Conference Call Takeaways
    Nov. 14, 2014 XONE 48 Comments

    Summary

    • ExOne has reported Q3'14 earnings, which missed big.
    • Despite that, my share dynamics-based predictions about market reaction to the report are proving correct.
    • Investors should focus on the long term, and the conference call contained several salient points about the company's progress.
  • Update: Universal Display Corp. Q3 Earnings Report
    Nov. 8, 2014 OLED 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Universal Display Corp. has report 3Q14 earnings.
    • The report affirms my repeated warnings about host sales, and Canaccord proved timely in echoing them.
    • The most important figure in the report has nothing to do with host sales and speaks to both the near and medium term prospects for UDC.
  • Universal Display 3Q14 Earnings Preview
       • Nov. 5, 2014 OLED 44 Comments

    Summary

    • Discussion on the quality of Canaccord's host sales warning.
    • 3Q14 earnings are projected with and without host sales.
    • Updates on the latest developments and prospects.
  • Update: InvenSense Q2'15 Earnings
       • Oct. 30, 2014 INVN 143 Comments

    Summary

    • Why InvenSense has reported in-line results on the top line, but missed badly on the bottom.
    • The report shows that management and I were dead wrong about a quick return to historical margins, and that sell-side analysts were wrong about problems with Apple.
    • The report also may solve the mystery about the change in CFOs.
    • Further analysis on where things go from here, and when we may finally have firm Apple figures.
  • Amazon Delta: One Last Hope Or The End Of An Era?
    Oct. 27, 2014 AMZN 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon's latest earnings miss has lead the stock to push the bounds of a long-standing correlation.
    • Fundamental risk factors and metrics are examined.
    • The Delta in AMZN options is likely to be the best pricing indicator while the stock is in transition.
  • InvenSense And The 10-Percenters
       • Oct. 22, 2014 INVN 135 Comments

    Summary

    • An increase in 10 percent customers allows for more accurate forecasting of coming INVN earnings.
    • Data and one interesting point from Apple's report last night are incorporated into new calculations.
    • Other 10-percent customers and longer-term factors are discussed.
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings
    Oct. 16, 2014 OCAT 297 Comments

    Summary

    • ACTC has published interim results.
    • The company has also filed TWO shelf offerings.
    • This represents step 4 of my 7 step process for the company.
    • Future steps and prospects are discussed.
  • 3 Signs That Apple's Next Breakout May Be Its Last
    Oct. 10, 2014 AAPL 320 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple is set to reach new highs with iPhone success.
    • However, 3 recent news items lead me to believe that a new breakout would be coming for all the wrong reasons.
    • Upcoming earnings, recent failures, and historical correlations are also discussed.
  • InvenSense, GT Advanced, And The Importance Of The Balance Sheet
    Oct. 7, 2014 INVN 58 Comments

    Summary

    • Any investment decision should include balance sheet analysis.
    • The impact of InvenSense acquisitions is revisited in light of just released information.
    • The balance sheets for all other stocks on which I currently have a bullish stance are also compared.
  • Universal Display Corp.: Moving Towards The Light And Reaching For Blue Sky
    Sep. 25, 2014 OLED 48 Comments

    Summary

    • Two separate announcements each positively impact UDC's growth prospects.
    • The first updates the near-term outlook for lighting, while the second is a long-awaited tech breakthrough.
    • Valuation is discussed and an updated price target provided.
  • InvenSense: More On The iPhone Teardowns
    Sep. 23, 2014 INVN 104 Comments

    Summary

    • A second tear-down and analyst actions have complicated matters.
    • While my recent warnings have been validated, I think the reasons for concern have now passed.
    • Additional explanation of my prior calculations is also given.
  • InvenSense And The iPhone Tear-Downs
       • Sep. 22, 2014 INVN 53 Comments

    Summary

    • InvenSense has won a slot in both new iPhones.
    • This validates my long-standing claim that InvenSense would get an Apple design win only when the latter company introduced a wearable.
    • The financial impact of the win is estimated, and risk factors are discussed.
  • Universal Display, Apple And The Future Of Displays
       • Sep. 20, 2014 OLED 38 Comments

    Summary

    • This morning's news, including iPhone tear-downs, makes it clear that Apple, and the display industry at large, is at the beginning of a transition to AMOLED screens.
    • Universal Display is the primary beneficiary of this trend.
    • The next big AMOLED producer and impact on other stocks as the industry develops are also discussed.
  • Advanced Cell Technology Annual Meeting Announcement: A Harbinger Of...?
    Sep. 12, 2014 OCAT 230 Comments

    Summary

    • Advanced Cell Technology has scheduled its Annual Meeting.
    • The company intends to change its name to Ocata Therapeutics.
    • The proposed increase in authorized shares is a harbinger of things to come.
  • Update: InvenSense And New Apple Products
    Sep. 9, 2014 INVN 61 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple has announced new products which are anticipated to use InvenSense parts.
    • Details of the announcement give us clues as to which spots InvenSense has won.
    • The new Apple Watch is the most important announcement and it contains some features whose impact will be at least as important as the hardware.
    • The introduction of the watch confirms at least one of my long-standing predictions regarding InvenSense gaining Apple as a customer.
  • Update: GFIG Group Competing Offer
    Sep. 9, 2014 GFIG 16 Comments

    Summary

    • BGC Partners has made a new offer to buy GFI Group.
    • The terms validate my assertion the proposed CME transaction severely undervalued GFIG shares.
    • Additional details released in the announcement also validate my opinion of GFI management's role.
    • Next steps and suggestions for appropriately compensating common shareholders are discussed.
  • Update: InvenSense And Apple Sneak Peek
    Sep. 3, 2014 INVN 57 Comments

    Summary

    • A sneak peek at the iPhone 6 has implications for InvenSense.
    • The latest reports could mean I'm wrong about a long-time prediction regarding a design win with Apple.
    • However, recent insider sales give additional evidence that I'm right where it counts.
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Reverse Split
    Aug. 28, 2014 OCAT 169 Comments

    Summary

    • Advanced Cell Technology has completed a reverse split.
    • This is one of the 7 steps which I previously outlined for restoring shareholder value and trust.
    • While not fundamentally significant on its own, this event is a harbinger of good things to come.
  • Update: ExOne Earnings
    Aug. 14, 2014 XONE 12 Comments

    Summary

    • ExOne has announced 2Q14 earnings.
    • The conference call shows both opportunity and missteps in the company's recent development.
    • The timing of opportunity from my initial coverage was wrong, as I warned before most damage was done, but the long-term bull case has not been skewered yet.