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  • Verizon Communications Is My Favorite Idea That Everyone Knows, But That No One Understands [View article]
    To my mind, the author makes an excellent sell/avoid argument. However he is missing the most crucial piece required for any short argument, and that is timing. The author notes that the dividend is high, yet gives no evidence whatsoever that Verizon will lower its NEXT dividend payment. Rather the argument seems to be that Verizon will be growth-challenged over an indeterminate longer term. Thus anyone taking the advice to short the stock would be taking over a 1% hit per quarter (4.4% per year) from the dividend in addition to whatever fees they pay for shorting, and that on a stock which the author correctly points out is very low beta!
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bear Case From A Bull [View article]
    Very nice article, though I think you may be further ahead of the game than some will realize. The upcoming earnings report could drive the stock substantially higher. Even so, I've noticed some underlying causes that support you general theses about growth and gadgets, both on the hardware

    and software sides
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    As discussed in much more detail with subscribers this morning, an Apple Watch teardown has arrived, but as suggested here

    despite a lot of opinions floating around out there, it is quite inconclusive for InvenSense. However, the teardown does finally confirm a suggestion that I was proably the first to make

    namely that this would be Apple's first use of an AMOLED screen.
    Apr 24, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Recovery, Last Year And This One [View article]
    As discussed in much more detail with subscribers this morning, Energy Recovery has promoted Joel Gay from CFO to CEO.

    This only serves to solidify my opinions about the company seeking a larger partner.
    Apr 24, 2015. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Universal Display's Second Largest Customer Halts Production Due To Accident [View article]
    I was probably the first to suggest that the Apple Watch would be that company's first use of an AMOLED screen.

    As discussed in more detail with subscribers this morning, teardowns give final confirmation on that point.
    Apr 24, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    888, looking back, you're partially right. I was jumping up and down before the initial drop in INVN shares that came after the initial Apple confirmation. The 2Q15 report came a little more than a month later and I was surprised by it. It then took me a couple of weeks to properly assess the market situation that has played out since. I don't think any of that invalidates the statement from me that you quote above, and I think it's a mischaracterization to say I was giving misguidance on the stock for months. I'm not going to argue the point, though. In an effort to keep comments in this article informative (thank you KrisCo!) and relevant, I'll simply provide links to the public articles that came immediately before

    and after the 2Q15 report

    so that readers can decide for themselves, if they wish to put time into that.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Betting Big On The Camera [View article]

    1. OIS penetration rates are still fairly low. Only the 6plus has it now, not the other iPhones. For those who think beyond Apple, it's only hit a small % flagship phones so far. So not having it is (negative) differentiation. It will move across and down the food chain over time.

    2. All OIS is not created equal, see the demo linked from the article. Apple's home-grown OIS does not compare favorably.
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Betting Big On The Camera [View article]
    I agree with nostatic. One minor point of differentiation is that while the camera itself is easily good enough for most, there is evidence (given in the article I already referenced above) that some features surrounding the camera, like OIS, are becoming major points of differentiation in the minds of consumers.
    Apr 23, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Betting Big On The Camera [View article]
    And the latest phones using InvenSense OIS blow away the images produced by the iPhone 6plus, as discussed and demonstrated (that word is a link in the article) here:
    Apr 22, 2015. 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contest: Describe Your Best Contrarian Idea For A Chance At Big Prizes [View article]
    Thanks for updating. I'm guessing that submissions are not being screened on the theme, just for general publication? That seems fine. If someone's entry is "Apple Makes Smartphones that Sell" there's no harm in giving it a little extra publicity, even though a quick web/news search would indicate that most of the market already agrees with that point. Again, I think the comments an article gets are possibly an even better way to judge market sentiment, and thus whether or not the article fits the contest theme. That's an even more powerful argument for not pre-screening.
    Apr 22, 2015. 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    For the watch, the part is likely part of the design and not easily replaceable, but at such low volumes, it's simply not an important question for INVN investors.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    A good recap, though not at all contrarian. The great preponderance of articles out there say OUTR has cheap metrics. The only debate is over which should decline faster, the stock price or DVD business. When I recapped the stock going on two years ago, the basic talking points were much the same.
    Apr 21, 2015. 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon CEO sees low oil prices for next few years [View news story]
    I might agree that oil prices will be "low" for the next few years if there were some quantification on what that meant, but in general, I call BS.

    The oil industry just experienced an historic bonanza with breakneck investment, and it didn't lead to great efficiencies or technological development. Rather, it lead to the industry pumping as fast as it could while the sun shown, and putting off efficiency for another day when prices would be low enough for that sort of thing to matter.


    for an example.
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Oil Consolidation On The Way, Poultry Producers Brace For Outbreak [View article]
    Even lifting the ban on US oil exporting is probably not enough to save Bakken focused players like CLR from fire sale prices. As this article implies, it's the viable names with bigger, cheaper resources that are going to go first. The rest will be picked up when they have no other choice but to sell, nowhere near today's prices.
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    Trust, have you and gotten any numbers to go with the write down you're complaining about? They were in my article. Management gave guidance, and it wasn't nearly as off as analyst estimates and market expectations. I don't know what else you expected them to do.

    Yes, some parts were produced that they expected to be able to sell at a certain price. Eventually, it was realized that price was going to be incorrect. That happens all the time. The price could have been adjusted gradually in the accounting (depreciated) or all at once. There's an argument to be made the that former is the path that should have been taken, but there's no big conspiracy surrounding this. The evidence was there for all to see. I was warning for a long time, and figuratively jumping up and down by the time the market finally took its reality check. If you think it's outrageous that Krock acted in self-interested way in the face of unrealistic market expectations, then all I can say is that you don't seem to have much practical market experience.

    I'm going to let this issue go now, but not before commenting that my own experience, not just in the market, is that we all have choices: one can figure out how things work for one's self, or one can blame others for misperceptions on what happened, 6 months ago in this case. The latter path often causes people to continue ignoring valuable information, such as a very good earnings report 3 months ago, and hard sales data since then. That's just fine by me. When misperception becomes widespread, I call that the perfect contrarian opportunity.
    Apr 21, 2015. 10:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment