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  • The Broader Effects Of Imminent Sales Tax Reform [View article]
    There are many reports like this, pretty much all of them saying the combined bill be introduced during the lame duck session (so not until November, at the earliest).
    Aug 22 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Most Important Event Comes The Week After Earnings [View article]
    The noise from the Senate seems to consistently point to the combined bill coming up during the lame duck session (so not until November, at the earliest). That implies that the results of the election will be important to whether or not it actually gets passed.
    Aug 22 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce's guidance mixed; deferred revenue grows 31% [View news story]
    Regulations require the companies to feature GAAP #s at least as prominently as non-GAAP in financial reports. The same should apply to sites like this.
    Aug 22 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company [View article]
    Yeah, I still don't think that's a good way to think about the stock, because if you get anywhere near commercialization then all the other programs and the general promise of stem cells come back into play.
    Aug 21 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Gulf lease sale draws $110M in high bids, Conoco wins coveted block [View news story]
    Conoco's management seems to be consistently outclassing the rest of the industry.
    Aug 21 01:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company [View article]
    This article concerned itself solely and specifically with Phase II valuation because, IMO, the possibility of a cure even being commercialized, let alone exhausting the customer base, is so far and vaguely in the future that it is not worth considering at this point, at least from an investment standpoint. That is made all the more true by how consistently ACTC investors mis-price developments, as well as where ACTC is in the process.
    Aug 21 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display Corp.: A Great View [View article]
    I agree, and how the lighting plays out is being discussed in my earnings update article. The comments of that article also contain updates to my Top Idea article for UDC, which goes into a lot more detail on how the company's finances work and will change in the coming year.

    Kudos to the author for increasing the breadth of coverage on OLED in a simple, understandable and accurate way. The stock has seen more than its fair share of misinformation over the past year or two. Those who found introductory material helpful might want to dig further into my old articles, which delve into some technical issues that will continue to be relevant for the foreseeable future.
    Aug 21 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Universal Display Corp. Earnings [View article]
    Sure, OLED lighting will start at the high end and work its way down to mainstream just like other technologies. However, I think the main thing to keep in mind for lighting is that UDC does not sell to end customers; it sells to the companies that commercialize the products. Thus the dynamics of the end markets matter not so much to UDC as the introduction of new products.
    Aug 21 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3-D Space Is Still Too Rich For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    My earnings update on ExOne had a similar tone, but grouping these stocks together is just disingenuous for all the reasons detailed in my original XONE article. You may as well include Tesla in your table above, since just about the only thing the companies have in common high valuations. The customers, technology and corporate structures are completely different, and I've long said that it's probably only when the market starts to realize that fact, that the time will be right to invest.
    Aug 19 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Resonant Could Be The Next Qualcomm Or Skyworks Solutions [View article]
    Yeah, the market never seems learn with this particular mistake. Look at the long term charts for OLED and see my articles, or substitute almost any other pure play tech company that was once emerging. You'll see a spike when the idea is first introduced, followed by years of slow decline in the stock price as the long, boring development work is actually done. Then a larger spike upon initial commercialization, which is typically another overreaction and subsequent correction. Then the opportunity is finally quantified in real revenue terms resulting in steady growth at last.

    Superconductor Tech is finishing customer qualifications and should see commercial production and revenue next year. Resonant has yet to even make an RF filter.

    Kudos to the author for giving SA its first coverage of RESN, which made it easy to get Pro status. I thought of doing the same thing. Let's not be naive about the timing, though.

    I'm checking out of this article, but feel free to ask further questions in one of mine.
    Aug 19 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Resonant Could Be The Next Qualcomm Or Skyworks Solutions [View article]
    Resonant doesn't have a foundational, game-changing tech. They have some patents on methods that they haven't quite made work yet.

    Qualcomm was founded in 1985 was similarly small for a decade until it became clear that their technology was going to dominate 3G mobile. I wouldn't be surprised to see Resonant take that long too. I also wouldn't be surprised to see it outpaced by Qualcomm or other tech innovators and join the long list of many great ideas that never saw commercial success.

    I'll continue to track Resonant, as it could be important, but IMO, the sister stock, SCON, is more interesting at the moment.
    Aug 19 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla An Energy Company? [View article]
    Thanks for the shout out. When I get time to write up my research at all, I tend to focus on better, lesser known opportunities. So it's nice to see someone else focusing on this aspect.

    I agree that there's lots of execution risk, but I'm not sure that Tesla can't grow slowly an organically. That path is best covered by Tesla's Matrix Moment, a hotly debated article whose content is actually just about to come of age next year.

    The article you link to is just an update article. Those really looking at the long-term fast growth Tesla story would do better to click through to the original article about the bond offering and all that implies.
    Aug 18 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman turns cautious on chip stocks, downgrades INVN/NXPI/MXIM [View news story]
    Yeah, well INVN doesn't pay a dividend. You're guaranteed that half the money going into and out of stocks like these at any given point is a losing bet. Read my Momentum Mechanism article if you want just a glimpse at why retail investors reading the news and message boards are unlikely to be the winning dollars.

    If you want to focus on INVN in particular then discuss the evidence presented in my articles, rather than an arbitrary set of opinions, whether they be from sell-side analysts or random posters here.
    Aug 18 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall, Inc: An Attractive Out Of Favor Business [View article]
    Yes, I said as much above, days ago.

    What I see as pretty much beyond argument is that recent share buybacks and the dutch auction that Jana pushed on management was a horrible use of shareholder equity. If Jana was so interested in shareholder value, why didn't they buy the shares at, what was it, $70?

    Management could have told Jana that if they don't like how the company is being run, they should go take a dump (of their shares). Then management could have repurchased shares 10-20% lower, if they so desired. The recent management changes brought in people who are just playing the Wall St game and common shareholders are unlikely to benefit from it.
    Aug 18 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Resonant +6.1% on bullish SA Pro write-up; SCON ticks higher [View news story]
    The sister company, Superconductor Technologies, has some nice growth prospects of its own. I've been tracking both companies for a while now and may write SCON up some time.
    Aug 18 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment