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  • Update: Energy Recovery Earnings [View article]
    Huh, looks like Energy Recovery just got a $2.125 million windfall:

    http://bit.ly/1pQ1Vng

    This is just a settlement of a dispute that derives from an old acquisiton, and is not material on an ongoing basis, but more money is always good.
    Aug 14 05:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall, Inc: An Attractive Out Of Favor Business [View article]
    Uh, no. According to the latest 13-F, they've sold everything:

    http://bit.ly/1oxfZ7d

    It was the big money version of a pump and dump, plain and simple.

    I brought 3 phones with me. The EcoATM I was at offered very little for one phone, and failed to identify another which was the exact same version. It worked fine for the third phone, though I didn't take the offer.
    Aug 14 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Wet AMD is the polar opposite of dry AMD in terms of what causes the problem. Thus, ACT's treatment wouldn't make any sense for it because the healthy cells transplanted cells would still be killed by the effects of the abnormal ones. The two treatments would not ever compete in any way, even if both are commercialized. Please check your facts before posting.
    Aug 13 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    You actually just corroborated what I said. They've just found patients to test safety. Clinically, they're at the point ACT was at years ago, but the science indicates that they will, in all likelihood, have a much higher hurdle merely to demonstrate safety, for the reasons I've cited above.
    Aug 13 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Gene therapy isn't really viable yet, and deals with enormously complicated systems about which we still have a lot to learn. By contrast, this treatment uses a simple and well understood process to just replace defective, dying cells with healthy ones. Normally rejection of the different cells is an issue for something like that, but what Lanza was emphasizing is that doesn't seem to be an issue in this case because of the immuno-priviledged treatment site in the eye.

    See also my reply to 49Mike, below.
    Aug 13 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Assuming safety is as good as we've been hearing, I would expect that treatment will start with the most severe cases, where there is little to lose and slowly migrate down to milder cases. On the SMD side, what Lanza was highlighting is that because of the lack of rejection issues in the eye, healthy cells can be used to gradually replace the defective ones, which makes this treatment much simpler and cleaner than trying to fix the genetic problem at its root, and more effective than any drug-based therapy could ever hope to be.
    Aug 13 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall, Inc: An Attractive Out Of Favor Business [View article]
    I agree, Redbox isn't going to collapse, but the author's own analysis shows both market saturation and almost complete reliance on this segment. Coinstar isn't going to magically take off after years in the marketplace. Maybe EcoATM will be successful, maybe it won't. My visit to an kiosk to an EcoATM lead me to believe the technology needs a lot more work still. Finally, the move business itself is having problems and is not a primary market I would want to be relying on, regardless of how the secondary distribution is done.

    Some of the author's other points don't really add up, either. The rebate rate indicates that the short float probably isn't as high as reported, as discussed in my Momentum Mechanism article. This certainly isn't a momentum stock, but I do think that big money is playing long/short games with it, as evidenced by Jana's meddling and then dumping.

    All in all, I like the company but have much better growth opportunities for my capital.
    Aug 13 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense: All Sensors Go! [View article]
    Ok, that doesn't respond to the evidence I present in any way. Ignoring the latest evidence never makes for good analysis, and you've made no good argument against the Apple win already being baked into the stock price either. Checking out of this thread.
    Aug 13 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense: All Sensors Go! [View article]
    Renmy,
    My first INVN article is InvenSense: Growth at the Right Price. The Jolt article provides evidence that the Apple deal is delayed, and What to Expect from InvenSense in 2014 predicts and documents the transition from sensor provider to SoC desiigner, which means the current suite of products is less proven in the marketplace than this author is suggesting.

    Please ask further questions in one of my articles, not here. SA editors are touch about linking to one's own material from other people's articles, but there I can more easily provide you with direct links. Also, I won't continue to follow this thread much longer, whereas I'll always respond in my own.
    Aug 13 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense: All Sensors Go! [View article]
    Matt, thanks for confirming that this article was written in June, and for taking the time to respond at all. That's more than many authors here do.

    If you get the chance, please have a look at the evidence presented in my Jolt article and see if that changes your opinion about InvenSense moving the bulk of its inventory in the second half. I was wrong about the impact centering around the last quarterly report, but that looks to be simply because the books are not up to date with respect to the acquisitions and InvenSense management is not up to date with respect to Apple's progress. You might read and say that its just a push back on your analysis here, but if InvenSense is still holding most of that inventory going into 2015, I don't want to be holding the stock at these prices. Surely you've seen other young companies that have had to learn the hard way not to build inventory based on promises?

    I look forward to your response.
    Aug 13 01:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense: All Sensors Go! [View article]
    To be fair, the 350 trailing PE is nonsense from Yahoo Finance and maybe that accounts for some of the short float that has been holding up the stock price as investors get educated and cycle through.

    I can't understand why anyone even looks at Yahoo Finance. Cursory examination of recent earnings shows EPS of 51 cents for the last 4 quarters, which makes the trailing PE just under 50. That's still way too expensive for where the company is right now, but people always love a good story more than math.

    At least this author does some calculations to justify his outlook. He just ought to discount for time. 20% per year is typical. So if you discount 30% for his 18 month time frame, ignored history, and the risk factors that I've detailed in my INVN articles, you'd have a current fair value of $32, not $46. That said, the article doesn't even quote the stock price correctly:

    "I believe its share price could rise as much as 165% over the next 12 months from its current share price level of just under $20 per share as of May 31st, 2014."

    As I started by commenting, it appears to be essentially a reprint of stale analysis, and new information has come to light on the Apple plans since then.
    Aug 13 12:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense: All Sensors Go! [View article]
    My focus is on long-term investing too. Long term investing focuses on valuation and doesn't ignore risk factors in between the current state and eventual success. Look back to my first article on INVN. It shows how investors who bought INVN after the IPO were completely right in their long-term thesis but suffered through 1.5 years of 50% capital loss.

    InvenSense is at the beginning of a transitional period from sensor provider to SoC designer, and the signs of growing pains are there. I have no doubt they will do well in years to come, but long-term investing also means you usually have plenty of time to choose your entry points carefully. All I'm saying is that I think that's case here, and if I'm wrong, I hope to still be happy to have missed the boat while deploying my capital in other opportunities that have better growth prospects and equal or lesser risk.
    Aug 13 12:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense: All Sensors Go! [View article]
    I just warned against shorting a stock like this in the comments of my most recent article. That's just a bad idea, but this article made me chuckle. I agree, InvenSense will get the Apple win. Technically, they will probably still get it in 2014, but not in volume, according to the evidence I've presented in my Jolt article. That's sort of ironic given that analysts have been predicting it for about a year now, and I've been saying they're wrong about the timing. The time is finally coming, but the impact of recent acquisitions will definitely show up on the balance sheet next quarter. Which will come first?

    In the meantime, I applaud the author for the 28% gain, but I'm still happy that my research lead me to get out before earnings, and at better prices than this, with well over a 100% gain for the year+ that I've been covering the stock. I further note that basing estimates on 2016 projections without appropriately discounting for the intervening year is not good financial modeling.
    Aug 12 09:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Basically ACTC won't be worth much of anything without a JV, and the stock is likely to hold whatever valuation the partner assigns to it, as inferred by the deal. That's the point of my last article. Still it's good to remember that this is a speculative investment, which means disciplined position sizes and risk management.
    Aug 12 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Yes, there is still a significant chance of failure, though it seems to be declining. Most of that was covered in my last article, which was specifically written to refute some of the more fantastical price targets that get thrown around. Still it's good to remember that this is a speculative investment, which means disciplined position sizes and risk management.
    Aug 12 06:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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