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  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    @JZ thanks for the nice, balanced comment. Obviously this and prior articles show that I agree with you on OIS. However, I think much of the rest of your comment typifies market misconceptions in two ways:

    1) On the price part, you seem to be confusing price per phone with price part, and failed to recognized that the Samsung row in my tables is using twice the pre-order number because it has two parts per phone. Furthermore, as regular, attentive readers of my prior INVN articles already know, my price part numbers are calculated directly off of InvenSense sales to Apple, and have nothing to do with Samsung sales.

    2) I think conflating InvenSense with other gyro producers like STM is a mistake too. It's not just about engineering the sensor, and thus the companies and products simply aren't the same. This article, which correctly predicted where InvenSense is going gives some idea as to why:

    The combination of these two is why I'm constantly down-playing opportunities like drones and automotive applications for InvenSense when bullish commentators get carried away about them. It's also the reason why STM fabs won't go idle. Rather they will transition to larger scale applications where they don't have to compete with InvenSense. However, as form factors shrink, so does InvenSense's competition. So yes, while other gyro makers will have their place, I continue to see InvenSense as having a clear lead on the the fastest growing, most transformative segment of that market. Thus its pricing power, and why I also think your fears about the Watch are both unjustified and unnecessary.

    As I've said before, I think some Apple followers out there are still looking at InvenSense and remembering GT Advanced, despite this article:

    The result is lots of hedging and fear ahead of the Watch release in a few days, because some think that if InvenSense is not included, that means major disappointment again. However, the flip side is that if the evidence presented here and my long-time precitions for an InvenSense Watch win do hold up, you could easily a sizable move in INVN before earnings. That is, if the teardown(s) provide something conclusive. It should already be clear that I don't see much fundamental importance in the event either way, but of course I will still cover it as part of my subscription service.
    Apr 21, 2015. 07:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Entries For Seeking Alpha's Contrarian Idea Contest [View article]
    I'm guessing that Pro access will be awarded along with the other contest awards? Has SA fixed the issue where it was sending stale reader engagement info on authors for months on end yet?
    Apr 21, 2015. 07:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: Opportunities And Threats [View article]
    Since this article will no longer be public in a couple of days, I figured now is the time note that there will NOT be another from me before UDC releases earnings. I do personalized Q&A via my subscription service and will provide real-time analysis on the earnings report there. Click on Send Message and provide an email address if interested.
    Apr 20, 2015. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    The CFO was forced out for the accounting mistake on inventory, which was only minor in comparison to the effect of analysts misguiding on the Apple deal. As regular readers already know, both effects were quantified by my Pro article on October 30. I completely agree that the event as a whole caused a huge shift in market sentiment towards INVN, but that is exactly why this is such a good contrarian opportunity. You can the market can FEEL that management is untrustworthy because of the miss, but Krock is the one who should and has be held accountable for the accounting mistake on inventory. The rest of management is more concerned with things like manufacturing, sales & negotiations, R&D, acquisitions, and product strategy. My past articles document how busy and successful they've been on all these fronts. You can hold them to blame as a group, if you'd like, but I think you'd be more successful to go over the actual numbers from management, as I already have, rather than confusing those numbers with analyst estimates that had little to do with management's guidance.
    Apr 20, 2015. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • They Lie! Pros Make Successful Stock Price Forecasts, Every Day, With Double-Digit Simple-Percentage Payoffs [View article]
    I agree with the title and general premise of the article, but my own direct experience with such firms is that the interaction is more complex than laid out here. Unfortunately SA discourages articles focused on broad market dynamics. I had to struggle to get this one published:

    There is a hierarchy of both capital and information at work in the market, which make it no longer anywhere near as simple as supply and demand, unless perhaps, we're talking about supply and demand of risk. In a world of fiat currency, however, even that becomes murky.
    Apr 20, 2015. 01:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    I think you're confusing management with the analysts. There was a mistake with inventory, but that was minor compared to analysts blowing the Apple deal out of proportion while failing to recognize the costs InvenSense was incurring to set it up. I followed management's guidance and based on that, was able to call the stock correctly. Go back and look for yourself.

    Now the setup costs are in the past and analysts are gaming the market again. Laying that at the feet of management is simply incorrect.
    Apr 18, 2015. 09:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutional investors push SEC for oil industry to detail climate change risks [View news story]
    Of course climate change poses no risk to Exxon's reserves, it's profits that would be at risk. However, the impact there is likely impossible to estimate since it depends on the actions of government. Good luck predicting that! If they were ever to actually get together and realistic about the costs, it would spell disaster. Even a subtle dose of reality would have a major impact, but I try never to use the words reality and government in the same sentence.
    Apr 17, 2015. 05:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How ConocoPhillips' Eagle Ford Operations Will Survive $56 WTI [View article]
    Thanks, but do you have any numbers on the industry-wide curtailment of spending? My take is that it's not all that massive. Conoco is doing a good job, but if you read between the lines, I think even they were saying they may need to cut more. Don't get me wrong, I see Conoco as best of breed and way ahead of the game, with the technology initiatives I've discussed. More broadly, though, it's seeming to me like oil stocks are rebounding to expect $70 oil this year, rather than in 2017. If you have numbers to the contrary, I'd love to see them.

    Of course it depends on what happens in between, but $70 in 2017 probably means another year of pain that I'm not sure is fully priced in. Furthermore, if you are right about that outlook, I see that as somewhat better than an inflation hedge, but it doesn't meet my return criteria, even if the interim risk were minimal.
    Apr 17, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    I've just finished a good read on the evolution of Moore's Law.

    It's not fundamental to INVN at the moment, so feel free to ignore. Nonetheless, the author's prediction on the next iteration of Moore's Law, which has just begun, is also a powerful argument as to why the software and SoC strategy that InvenSense is pursuing is best over the long haul versus discrete sensor hubs. I've had some pretty in-depth discussion on that topic in the past, particularly in reference to QuikLogic:
    Apr 17, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How ConocoPhillips' Eagle Ford Operations Will Survive $56 WTI [View article]
    What I'd like to see, though, is real justification for a return to $70 oil. This article does an excellent review of Conoco's efficiency efforts. I think that's what it's all about going forward, but more efficient production doesn't equate to a rebound in oil prices. The cost of alternatives has come down, so there's every reason to believe to that oil prices will jump around, but stay more or less where they are over the long term.

    Most of the arguments I've seen for $70 or above oil seem to simply say, it was there for the past few years, and we need it to get there again. They don't look at how the world is changing.
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Recovery, Last Year And This One [View article]
    For those who haven't seen it, my Pro update is here:

    it focuses on confirmation and new use of the Energy Recovery's technology by Conoco and the board room changes and growth prospects. It will remain public until mid-May 2015.

    Subscribers to my service got commentary on further management changes yesterday before market open. Here's the press release:
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How ConocoPhillips' Eagle Ford Operations Will Survive $56 WTI [View article]
    Investors who are interested in this article may also wish to take a look at one of the technology providers that Conoco is using to reduce its drilling and processing costs. My Pro article on it is still public and linked from the last comment of this article, which will remain public.
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon steps closer to custom TV packages [View news story]
    $55/mo is still ridiculously expensive for video content.
    Apr 17, 2015. 07:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    Yes, I sent a largely unrelated update to subscribers earlier which included new info on the Watch. I agree that a teardown in close proximity to earnings could give some extra pop to the move I'm expecting. Sometimes market misunderstandings move a stock in the direction they should go anyway.
    Apr 16, 2015. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contest: Describe Your Best Contrarian Idea For A Chance At Big Prizes [View article]
    I think you're making my point. Given the vastly skewed compensation between Premium articles and contest awards, the highest income strategy for authors with consistently high quality work, rather than those who spam or do cookie cutter articles, may be to wait for a contest and then publish. Fortunately, I'm already holding back ideas, though for different reasons.
    Apr 16, 2015. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment