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Esekla  

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  • Near-Term Notes For BGC Partners [View article]
    I think they are another area where top-notch management shines.
    Jun 29, 2015. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pair Trade For Oil E&Ps [View article]
    While some may be pushing to ban fracking, I don't think that's a serious threat. What is a threat is increased costs for frackers in situations where public opinion takes away injection wells as an option, and liability in cases where that option has already been used. Even the Zeits article referenced by Craig acknowledges that frackers may already own some liability.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Share Your Best Pair Trade And Compete For Big Prizes [View article]
    Brendan, I agree that the contests should be minimally restrictive in accepting entries. However, I think the contest results show that it makes sense to get as much info about what editors are thinking as possible. While the 2nd and 3rd place winners seem to qualify at a glance, the 1st place winner is an example of out of the box thinking on what constitutes a pair trade, to put it euphemistically. There are so many uncorrelated variables that are not specific to either company yet relevant to the individual outcomes that it would not come close to qualifying as a pair trade at any institution I've ever been associated with.

    For that reason, I think it's important to get as much info as possible on what the Editors are actually thinking in these contests, which divert so much available compensation from articles with potentially higher quality investment ideas.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pair Trade For Oil E&Ps [View article]
    I read Richard's article before we embarked on this exercise. I find it curious that you cite it since it really highlights the increasing risk for Oklahoma frackers. I agree that we're at least not appreciating one another's points. I think the details you point out are valid and well-intended, but not terribly important from an investment perspective. My only intention was to give some additional data points on changing academic and public opinion. I think those are relevant, and I'm not sure the details you're bringing up really change that much. Like I said at the opening of this article, sometimes investors over-complicate things.
    Jun 27, 2015. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    All brokerages that I've looked at (including TD) still show 42M shares outstanding, not that brokerages are particularly good information sources on this.
    Jun 26, 2015. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Near-Term Notes For BGC Partners [View article]
    My Pro article addressed the dividend in detail and predicted the most recent increase exactly:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I do personalized Q&A via my subscription service (message me privately with an email address for details), but the short answer is that the dividend is more than just sustainable; I see it as likely to be increased again over the next year, though I won't rehash all the reasons why here.
    Jun 26, 2015. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Near-Term Notes For BGC Partners [View article]
    Officials say that Greece must reach a deal by Monday in order to make a payment to the IMF by Tuesday.
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pair Trade For Oil E&Ps [View article]
    Yes Craig, and injection is sometimes used in other (non-oil) industries as well. The practice is the basis for many water pollution claims, but I didn't bring that up because that does span many industries.

    http://bit.ly/1RBni7f

    I think the main differentiating factor with fracking is that the injections are into compromised rock. I've not seen other uses associated with earthquakes. It's not like the wells could function without injection or proppants. Nor is there a logical argument that the earthquake issue would go away even if they were to use clean water. It would just be (prohibitively?) more expensive, without solving the issue.

    Finally, whether you see merit in these arguments or not, I think it's hard to deny that public opinion is shifting, as well as scientific opinion. If you think that either one of those doesn't matter, I'd say you're being naive.
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pair Trade For Oil E&Ps [View article]
    I read your comment very carefully, multiple times, and I don't see your point. Are you trying to imply that frackers aren't the ones doing waste water injection?
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, Apple, Google, And The Game Of IoThrones [View article]
    Someone else posted the company's official explanation above, and I confirm that what they posted is what InvenSense said. I'd take the company line with a little bit of salt, but don't have much to add that is specific to the conference timing.

    I think the battle for developer mindshare is different than in the early days personal computing, when there was less competition and development was less, um, corporatized.
    Jun 25, 2015. 07:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oklahoma drilling regulator calls recent spike in quakes a "game changer" [View news story]
    Actually the threat of larger quakes isn't the main concern for fracking stocks, IMO. See my comments, linked to above.
    Jun 24, 2015. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Pair Trade For Oil E&Ps [View article]
    Oklahoma is the latest..

    http://reut.rs/1NiAqxs

    I note that every geography is different, but I think this all comes to a head at the point where governments start holding frackers financially responsible for infrastructure damage.
    Jun 24, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oklahoma drilling regulator calls recent spike in quakes a "game changer" [View news story]
    I updated my pair trade article, which is in part designed to leverage conventional resources E&Ps against a fracking focused one, just yesterday. The comment lists two other data points on how this is rising in the public consciousness, and thus risk levels for frackers.

    http://bit.ly/1NiAeOS
    Jun 24, 2015. 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips, Total leading the way in energy "self-help," analyst says [View news story]
    I said the same thing about Conoco two weeks ago, and noted that the flip side is that those who used debt to go hog wild during the boom are likely to suffer the most.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 24, 2015. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    This is the sort of thing that barely warrants a press release

    http://bit.ly/1NaDHhF

    and the titling of it suggest to me that management just wants to sell shares for a few more pennies.
    Jun 24, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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