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  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Ok, I just don't know how to respond to this, as risk vs reward and reward vs risk seem like the same thing to me. Of course we are talking percentage in each case, and seems like you just haven't been reading carefully. Other stocks I've covered definitely have greater potential % gain over the next several years and less risk. The one thing ACTC has that they don't is a short time frame. The return I've talked about in this case will be realized (or not) within the next six months. So maybe you've got a comparative case based on short-term annualized return, albeit at greater risk.
    Aug 18 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Universal Display Corp. Earnings [View article]
    My Top Idea article went into to detail on both timing and capacity for LG & Samsung. It calculated a conservative $41 price for OLED in 2015, and that doesn't count host sales or sales outside of Korea. LG production is looking pretty much assured for the first half of 2015, and that basically doubles worldwide production surface area. That only makes sense since LG needs to leverage their lead before others catch up. That's all old news, though. Since then the Chinese have really been coming along, and Japan could be even bigger.

    What's been really surprising is how quickly lighting has been coming along. Korea's Ministry Of Trade, Industry and Energy has just announced that they will begin providing over $20 million to try to insure that Korea has a leading spot in that market. Until recently, most of us thought that application would take a 3 or 4 more years to develop, but now 1.5 to 2 is looking like a more likely estimate.
    Aug 18 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman turns cautious on chip stocks, downgrades INVN/NXPI/MXIM [View news story]
    I've been saying for a while now that the Apple design win for InvenSense, while not officially announced, is already priced in. In the meantime, other near term risk factors have developed, as documented by my articles.
    Aug 18 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: InvenSense Earnings [View article]
    In case anyone is wondering about this morning's price movement, Goldman has downgraded INVN, echoing my thoughts that the Apple design win is already priced in.
    Aug 18 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    I do know someone with SMD, and I make my living investing. So, I may put more time into this than those who work a job. However, other than reading the very long 10-Q in detail a while back, I don't put proportionally more time into this stock than I do others. I also think that other stocks I cover have better risk reward profiles.
    Aug 16 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Energy Recovery Earnings [View article]
    As I understand it, the whole 3.5M was supposed to have gone to Pump LLC's former owners upon completion of certain milestones after acquisition. Energy Recovery is retaining the lion's share according to the terms of the settlement. It's a windfall because most likely all of the escrow was originally accounted for as being paid out.

    As I said, it's not material on an ongoing basis and thus doesn't bear dwelling on.
    Aug 15 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Universal Display Corp. Earnings [View article]
    AUO is finally starting mass production of AMOLED panels:

    My calculations indicate that current production should begin adding ~$1M per quarter to UDC's material revenue and about an extra penny to EPS.

    While this isn't the game changer that LG (and hopefully JOLED) will be in months to come, it's likely just the beginning and a very important step in revenue diversification.

    Even without JOLED and smaller players like AUO and various Chinese producers, UDC is set to earn $2 per share in 2015, including host sales. That would make it quite the value at current prices.
    Aug 15 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broadband-shifting bigger influence than cord-cutting [View news story]
    A pretty good description of what's happening. It's a shame, though, that the U.S. can't catch up to the rest of the world, and thus that consumers have such terrible options in this arena. The FCC needs to realize that local wires are just like local streets and end the regional monopolies.
    Aug 15 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ExOne shares higher on Outperform rating [View news story]
    Surprising, given the mistakes they admitted in their conference call. As I covered in my update article, not many companies would be so up front about stuff like that.
    Aug 15 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    It's all in the 10-Q. See my Doorstep article for a recap.
    Aug 15 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: ExOne Earnings [View article]
    Here's the transcript, for those wishing to read the details:
    Aug 14 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ExOne: You Were Warned [View article]
    You should have listened to the conference call. As I touched on in my update article, they gave plenty of color on what happened, which would have enabled you to paint an even uglier picture, had you wished. That said, lots of companies make mistakes like ExOne did. Few are as honest as they were about it.
    Aug 14 10:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Energy Recovery Earnings [View article]
    Huh, looks like Energy Recovery just got a $2.125 million windfall:

    This is just a settlement of a dispute that derives from an old acquisiton, and is not material on an ongoing basis, but more money is always good.
    Aug 14 05:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall, Inc: An Attractive Out Of Favor Business [View article]
    Uh, no. According to the latest 13-F, they've sold everything:

    It was the big money version of a pump and dump, plain and simple.

    I brought 3 phones with me. The EcoATM I was at offered very little for one phone, and failed to identify another which was the exact same version. It worked fine for the third phone, though I didn't take the offer.
    Aug 14 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Wet AMD is the polar opposite of dry AMD in terms of what causes the problem. Thus, ACT's treatment wouldn't make any sense for it because the healthy cells transplanted cells would still be killed by the effects of the abnormal ones. The two treatments would not ever compete in any way, even if both are commercialized. Please check your facts before posting.
    Aug 13 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment