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Esekla

 
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  • InvenSense: All Sensors Go! [View article]
    My focus is on long-term investing too. Long term investing focuses on valuation and doesn't ignore risk factors in between the current state and eventual success. Look back to my first article on INVN. It shows how investors who bought INVN after the IPO were completely right in their long-term thesis but suffered through 1.5 years of 50% capital loss.

    InvenSense is at the beginning of a transitional period from sensor provider to SoC designer, and the signs of growing pains are there. I have no doubt they will do well in years to come, but long-term investing also means you usually have plenty of time to choose your entry points carefully. All I'm saying is that I think that's case here, and if I'm wrong, I hope to still be happy to have missed the boat while deploying my capital in other opportunities that have better growth prospects and equal or lesser risk.
    Aug 13 12:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense: All Sensors Go! [View article]
    I just warned against shorting a stock like this in the comments of my most recent article. That's just a bad idea, but this article made me chuckle. I agree, InvenSense will get the Apple win. Technically, they will probably still get it in 2014, but not in volume, according to the evidence I've presented in my Jolt article. That's sort of ironic given that analysts have been predicting it for about a year now, and I've been saying they're wrong about the timing. The time is finally coming, but the impact of recent acquisitions will definitely show up on the balance sheet next quarter. Which will come first?

    In the meantime, I applaud the author for the 28% gain, but I'm still happy that my research lead me to get out before earnings, and at better prices than this, with well over a 100% gain for the year+ that I've been covering the stock. I further note that basing estimates on 2016 projections without appropriately discounting for the intervening year is not good financial modeling.
    Aug 12 09:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Basically ACTC won't be worth much of anything without a JV, and the stock is likely to hold whatever valuation the partner assigns to it, as inferred by the deal. That's the point of my last article. Still it's good to remember that this is a speculative investment, which means disciplined position sizes and risk management.
    Aug 12 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Yes, there is still a significant chance of failure, though it seems to be declining. Most of that was covered in my last article, which was specifically written to refute some of the more fantastical price targets that get thrown around. Still it's good to remember that this is a speculative investment, which means disciplined position sizes and risk management.
    Aug 12 06:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Well the key point in Lanza's part of the call is that due to the role of these cells and the immuno-priveledged site of treatment in the eye, this treatment is actually a better option than gene therapy or any other competitor that I can think of. It may even represent a cure, though it's far too early to claim that.

    As for finances, that's old news and shareholders obviously aren't the answer. Established pharma has to step in, and then the only remaining question is, on what terms?
    Aug 12 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Agreed that the uplist should happen after funding. That's why it's the last of my 7 steps.
    Aug 12 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    This idea is flat out wrong. They don't have $50M to dilute, they have $30M. Most of the 3.3b share count was sold long ago. In any case, neither amount would be enough to take them through Phase II, which is what's required.
    Aug 12 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4K content could be the key to reeling in millennials [View news story]
    There is a difference, and it was probably more apparent when you were in a showroom, right up close to a screen. People don't generally watch big screens at that distance, though. Regardless, color replication makes a much bigger difference, and 4K AMOLED TVs are already starting to be produced. Best Buy is offering pre-orders on AMOLEDs in less than two weeks, as commented in my most recent OLED article.
    Aug 12 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Universal Display Corp. Earnings [View article]
    The next-generation LG AMOLED TV starts pre-orders in the U.S. in less than two weeks at a price of $3499:

    http://usat.ly/1r7lLy7
    Aug 12 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    My prior article gives a methodology for pricing, but one can't even guess at the inputs to that prior to publication. Even then, the context is as a Phase II company, so full value should not be realized until a funding deal for that is in place. That said, markets are forward looking...
    Aug 12 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    Celebrity and true success in science or medicine rarely go together. It would probably be good for the stock, though.
    Aug 12 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    No more dilution! That's what got them into this mess in the first place. JV is the outcome we're looking for here, as detailed in the last article. The publication will affect the terms and they need not be so bad. Also, no breakthrough status in 2014, as documented in the Doorstep article.
    Aug 12 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Conference Call [View article]
    I doubt it will go that way, and hope it doesn't. The purpose of the new LPC deal is to give them negotiating room and power. That's all.
    Aug 12 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4K content could be the key to reeling in millennials [View news story]
    Don't count on in it. The human eye can't even detect the difference in quality that 4K offers at the typical viewing distance of 9 feet. Color replication is far more important, which is just part of why I've written that OLED technology is poised to jump from small screens to large ones.
    Aug 12 01:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company [View article]
    Here's the new article:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 12 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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