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  • U.S. Oil Shales: Breakeven Oil Price Is A Tricky Concept [View article]
    How can you write an article where such a major point is using Continental's most recent report as an example, yet not link to the transcript? Here it is for the benefit of your readers:

    Also, I'm skeptical of the $10 per boe reduction in costs. So far they've achieved $2, if memory serves, and most of that is from reduction in service costs, which would spring back in oil prices did. If oil prices don't spring back, then it's hard to see how this company survives given the debt load and lack of price hedges. I was shocked to hear they won't be putting any in place, but I guess they are just too expensive, and what's the point if you're not going to make it anywhere near current pricing anyway. The plan seems to be to complete the easy stuff that was already in process, and hope for even more dramatic rebounds in oil prices.

    Hamm pretty much confirmed this in my mind by saying that they wouldn't increase their currently minimal rig count unless we saw oil at around $70. So, that seems to jive with the rest of your math. Thanks for the article!
    May 11, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Shales: Breakeven Oil Price Is A Tricky Concept [View article]
    Yes, though this is just emerging in the public consciousness, the scientific community is getting to the point where there is little doubt.

    To be clear, we are not yet talking about major seismic events, but liability for building and infrastructure damage is still a big potential concern.
    May 11, 2015. 06:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    I think you are confusing the main application processor, such as a SnapDragon or A9, with an SoC. I agree that FireFly keeps InvenSense well ahead of the competition, as we should see towards year end. More on that in my next article, most likely.

    As for the lawsuits, you are incorrect about them usually ending in settlement. They usually end with the IP version of ambulance chasers not being able to find a lead plaintiff. See this comment for more detail:
    May 9, 2015. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    Chris, I agree that it's a tough time to invest in product suppliers, and about the slowdown. In fact, I talked about it last fall, here:

    However, you seem misinformed on InvenSense. I challenge you to give me numbers for a quarter where revenues were not higher YoY. Adjusting for seasonality, management has grown sales every single quarter without exception!

    I also agree with you on the two types of investors. I seek to maximize gains and find that the market is short-sighted enough that holding through a 1yr+ tax-advantage period is sometimes difficult. Despite an incorrect call this time, my approach has served me well enough to make a good living at it, unlike many authors here. Regardless, both types benefit from having correct information that properly prepares them, well in advance.
    May 9, 2015. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    If memory serves, revenue guidance has been exceeded both times, and EPS guidance has been exactly right.

    Even though you clearly engage in hyperbole by saying I'm the only one who believes management is not to blame, I do think you give some accurate color on market sentiment, though. Contrasting facts with market sentiment is the essence of contrarian investing.
    May 9, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    B888s, NoTrust, Kimer,

    Pretty much all executives sell some of the stock that they are compensated with. It just happened with Universal Display, for instance, right in advance of earnings, but nobody complains about it when the stock is going up. If you want to see real management hype, go look at that conference call. That's been a criticism I've had about UDC management from the beginning. However, it's simply not realistic to paint conspiracy theories around InvenSense management that continues to hold many more shares than they sell.

    The shorts were right about INVN back in October of last year, and before that, when I was also cautioning, mainly due to analyst hype. From a results perspective at least, exactly 8% of that report was due to an inventory write down, which hasn't recurred, despite your FUD here. The rest of the disappointment, over half a year ago, was versus analysts projections, as already covered. Since then, range traders have been right, as I predicted, not shorts, who have been paying high rates for no significant movement.

    Similarly, the last report came in exactly as management projected, and the one before that was quite good as well. There's just no recent evidence for your continued attacks on management. In this case, as then, analysts, including me, would be a far better target for your criticism, since I clearly got the EPS number wrong, along with many others. That has created a short term market imbalance, which has nothing to do with management or the company's overall prospects.

    Management has to take a longer-term view, and their actions have caused the company to earn more over the past year than it ever has before. That is not coming through to the bottom line because of investments in the future. You may not understand an 18 month product cycle, but management certainly does, and their results are actually pretty impressive. Institutions do too, and they now own over half of INVN shares.

    At virtually all stages in the InvenSense story, if the market, including me, had listened to management, there would have been far less disappointment. By just about any metric (balance sheet, market share, stock price), InvenSense is in a FAR better position now than it was just a couple of years ago, when I first wrote about it. Yes, the stock has underperformed in 2015. That is entirely due to market sentiment and ignorance of management's guidance and long-term planning.

    You're perfectly entitled to believe that those long-term plans won't work, but repeating the same things over and over doesn't make them more believable. Especially when evidence continues to mount to the contrary. Give it a rest.
    May 9, 2015. 07:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display +12.4% post-earnings; deferred revenue in focus [View news story]
    I generally don't make Buy or Sell calls. Buying and selling should depend on individual investor specifics.

    The Pro article you are referring to, Universal Display: Opportunities and Threats, detailed both and concluded,

    "I still believe that AMOLED technology will come to dominate screens of all sizes. However, I've also consistently pointed out that UDC will need to keep innovating in order to be the beneficiary of that trend. Being the best pure play on a technology doesn't necessarily make you a de-facto winner, let alone a value. That said, readers of my InvenSense articles will know from experience that a stock can run longer than it should before reality sets in. OLED investors should measure the current set of uncertainties against their individual situations very carefully, even if the market is not doing so... yet."

    If you interpret that as a Sell call then you are certainly not my target audience. My target audience seeks to understand underlying business fundamentals and market situations, using the latter to profit from the former.
    May 8, 2015. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display +12.4% post-earnings; deferred revenue in focus [View news story]
    I note that UDC has now hit the price target set by me in September of last year:
    May 8, 2015. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Einhorn's Scathing Anti-Fracking Thesis Is Literally A Joke [View article]
    Giving a full presentation is beyond the scope of a comment, and there are certainly per company adjustments. As an example, though, take a look at the Q&A from the Continental Resources transcript earlier today. They would up admitting that they wouldn't start anything new without WTI at least at $70.
    May 7, 2015. 11:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • David Einhorn's Scathing Anti-Fracking Thesis Is Literally A Joke [View article]
    I agree on the drilling side, but there are lots of other ways to decrease production costs with technology, such as protecting the pumps from the proppant, and optimizing the gas processing once it has been extracted.
    May 7, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil in North Dakota derailment was treated to cut volatility, Hess says [View news story]
    Maybe the wheat and potato cars derail too... they just don't explode.
    May 7, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil in North Dakota derailment was treated to cut volatility, Hess says [View news story]
    Anyone up to date on how the push to implement a version of the North Dakota rules nationwide is coming?

    I touched on these rules in my my Pro article saying to sell/avoid HES, but I haven't kept up on the issue since then.
    May 7, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Sell Oil: Don't Let The Decline In Inventories Fool You, Supply And Demand Remain Unbalanced [View article]
    My comment would be that mainstream media is typically behind the curve, and basing investment decisions on it is a very good way to lose money.
    May 7, 2015. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources gains as Q1 loss is less than expected [View news story]
    Wow, after an extended plea for a lift on the U.S. oil export ban by Hamm, the company flat out declined to give financial guidance.

    In the Q&A, management let slip that they need $70+ WTI to be profitable (WTI currently at $59.63), not that it was really a secret. Hamm is trying to put a good face on things, but admitted that cost reductions are primarily due to reduced service costs. Those can only go so far and it means costs would go back up if oil prices do. They have no price hedges in place and no plans to add any, even after a rebound in WTI of over 25% in the last two months.

    All this says to me that management knows that Continental can only survive if oil rebounds even more sharply than it already has in the next year or so. If so, the stock probably stays about where it is. If not, then the company is simply not viable.
    May 7, 2015. 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • David Einhorn's Scathing Anti-Fracking Thesis Is Literally A Joke [View article]
    Shale production does need to be differentiated from conventional somehow, given its vastly different characteristics. I was also disagree with you when you say that fracking has matured, and so would Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO of ConocoPhilips, who has said that the industry is still in the "first inning" in terms of what technology can to improve it. See the link in my first comment.

    Conoco is a leader in that respect, and its management has proven itself to be quite prescient. The startling political changes underway in Canada may be a real stumbling block for them, though. Still researching...
    May 7, 2015. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment