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  • Advanced Cell Technology's Intellectual Property Takes A Hit [View article]
    The premise you identify is not false. Nature did publish the paper. They subsequently retracted it because the research that was falsified. However, the mere fact of it having been published at all in the first place indicates the change in context surrounding how the scientific community thinks about iPSCs from back in the day when ACT actually spent money on patents in this area.

    Now, instead of being paid for that intellectual property Ocata, is paying for newer methods of iPSC creation. Case closed.
    Mar 30, 2015. 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    Here's a link to that update, for all those without the reading comprehension to look and comment in the appropriate place:
    Mar 30, 2015. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel/Altera deal seen providing many synergies, sparking more M&A [View news story]
    I think WB's commentary is most insightful. The transition towards SoCs points to other potential takeover targets which I've discussed.

    That said, buyout rumors are best ignored, especially in cases like this where the stock gets bid up. If you chase them and they actually come to pass, it's typically an indication that you were missing long-term value in the first place and are now trading it for a lesser short-term gain. That potential short term gain often is not appropriate compensation for the down-side risk of the deal not being executed at a now elevated price, or reduced premium.
    Mar 30, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology's Intellectual Property Takes A Hit [View article]
    Although this article discusses a change in the value of a slice of Ocata's patent portfolio, is does NOT discuss stock valuation. Another article of mine did

    though I no longer regard that article as valid since management has backed away from plans to cease serial dilution. In more mature and successful investing contexts, companies that operate this way and the investors that allow them to do so are a bad joke. While it is possible to make money swing trading such stocks, that's not something that interests me, though the science that originally lead me to publish this piece still does.

    To that end, this article was correct in its assessment that, regardless of the validity of research that prompted the Nature publication, the simple fact that Nature did publish it indicated how far academic understanding and opinion surrounding iPSCs has come since ACT purchased and developed patents in this area. I think Ocata paying for the technology to create these cells, rather than being paid for it validates my original argument as presented here. Other comments which talk about value lying in cell differentiation rather than creation are off-topic.

    To answer your question, I am not working out any market valuation. I recognize that management almost certainly has no other option than to continue and repeat the prior path of dilution, in order to continue their research, which I do view as worthwhile. Nonetheless, I think the quality of behaviour and information from management do not support quality investment analysis; that's why I dropped coverage of the stock.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Thing Apple Should Do To Preserve Its Market Position [View article]
    That does sound like a very worthy initiative with a similar, albeit longer, feedback loop.
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cook to donate all his wealth to charity [View news story]
    Here's suggestion as to where some of it could go:
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense: MWC And Apple's Media Event [View article]
    there should be a send message link right below my name.
    Mar 27, 2015. 02:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense: MWC And Apple's Media Event [View article]
    Message me privately with an email address.
    Mar 26, 2015. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: Opportunities And Threats [View article]
    I apologize for seeming boastful. I probably should have simply said that I was the first to publicly note that the jump in development material sales signaled the new LG contract. As often happens, I did see some articles on tMF echo some of my writing. Going forward, such observations will likely be limited to my subscription service.

    The cash on the balance sheet statement was specifically requested by SA editors for Pro publication. Nonetheless, since TADFs would likely be a drop in replacement, requiring little or no change to manufacturing facilities, I think it is valid. Also, yes, I believe that UDC has no meaningful patent position for TADFs. Its emitter patents are centered around phOLEDs, so widespread use of TADFs would gut the current business. Note however, that I give no time line for this, despite what you say. I simply note that OLED has multiple years of growth priced in, but it is probably not appropriately pricing the risks. Correcting mis-attributions like this can get time consuming, so don't expect the practice to continue. I need to devote the time to personalized Q&A in my subscription service instead.

    We'll have to just agree to disagree on China and other points.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: Opportunities And Threats [View article]
    Yes, the same could be said for blue phOLEDs. Most of the work at that particular site and many others has been done in blues because thats where phosphorescent emitters fall short, particularly in deep blues. As this article said, TADFs and phOLEDs are currently about equal in blue lifetime and efficiency. I doubt that transitioning to other colors would be a major roadblock, though.

    You can pick at work that still needs to be done from many individual sites, but new work will be bringing together the strengths from different research areas, not the weaknesses. Thus, I'm not going to respond to each and every point. This article does not claim that TADFs are coming to market this year. It claims that the market, and many commentators here, may be underestimating the threat. Unlike investors, manufacturers aren't looking just 1 year forward. They are looking at whether labs are showing something they can use at all.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: Opportunities And Threats [View article]
    It makes perfect sense for LG as the company currently has a cost advantage, which they need to push as hard as possible while it lasts.
    Mar 26, 2015. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: Opportunities And Threats [View article]
    I don't think iridium phOLED emitters are recycled but I can say I've researched it specifically.

    I do personalized Q&A via my subscription service. Message me privately with an email address, if interested.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: Opportunities And Threats [View article]
    Sure, and I apologize in advance if my response above came across too harshly, but I think the facts are not as you were making them out to be.
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: Opportunities And Threats [View article]
    @Morgan, if you really think TADFs haven't advanced in 5 years, then all I can say is that I think you're about as wrong as one could be. This article lists just a few academic references because this in an investment site, but I could have filled a page with references to the many advancements that have been made.

    UDC can't make a profit on TADFs because it doesn't own the IP. If it tried to do so, it would be in a position very similar to the one it is in now with vanishing host sales, except that it would not even have the advantage of being in the position to have first mover advantage when designing host materials to match the emitters.
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: Opportunities And Threats [View article]
    Sidney, Samsung would not own or control TADF emitter technology, and lines would probably need little or no retrofitting. Also, the RGB approach is superior to WOLED, even if there are still manufacturing issues to be worked out for larger sized screens. That is why even LG is using RGB for mobile devices. So I don't think Samsung is falling behind, I think it is simply choosing to focus where it already has a huge manufacturing lead for now, and assessing the future in determining what do about the expiration its UDC contract in about a year and a half. Finally, I think it's misguided to view LG and Samsung as rivals of the same sort that we would see here in the states. The chaebol may look that way on the surface, but the reality is more like quarrelsome siblings who make a lot of noise, but wind up being forced to cooperate, if only by a parent (in this case the Korean government).

    You can dismiss my technological assessment of TDAFs as fear mongering if you like, but I do not find your comparisons to other technologies, most of which I have also covered and made light of, to be very well informed. I am voicing concern here because I see the prospect of TADFs as fundamentally different than the alternatives you mention. Thanks for your comment just the same.
    Mar 25, 2015. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment