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  • InvenSense beats by $0.01, beats on revenue [View news story]
    That should be $115M in revenue, beating by $4M, as reported to my readers 20 minutes ago.
    Jan 29, 2015. 04:40 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GFI Group's Gooch makes another plea [View news story]
    As already noted in my BGCP Update article, there's nothing new in the letter.

    What it really says to me is that the vote is either very close, or not going Gooch's way. Common shareholders should be happy about that. At least he didn't call on his ex-wife this time.
    Jan 29, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: BGC Increases Tender Offer For GFI Group Again [View article]
    Gooch has issued another note to shareholders. It doesn't say anything new, but at least he doesn't call on his ex-wife again. What it really indicates to me is that the vote is going to be quite close, or is projected to deny the CME transaction, which would serve GFI management the most valuable portion of the company without appropriately compensating shareholders.
    Jan 29, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense Q3 FY15 Earnings Preview [View article]
    Hmm, my reading of the article is that 75% is their best guess, not the high. It seems they are using a sample size of 500 U.S. individuals, so the results could be expected to vary about 4.4% either way and would only be valid for the U.S. portion of iPhone sales.

    Still, useful information, though. Message me an email address privately if you want that subscription.
    Jan 29, 2015. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense Q3 FY15 Earnings Preview [View article]
    The EPS figures that I calculate are in-line, but my revenue range has in-line at the bottom and extends well above. Thus, I think there's a good chance of a revenue beat, but EPS shouldn't be very far off.

    As for margins, see the comment above. It's already been covered in detail in the linked article, and with subscribers.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Beyond The Hess Earnings Report [View article]

    "Pipeline transportation ... nearly non-existent, as in the Bakken play."
    Jan 29, 2015. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BGC Partners reaffirms $6.10 cash offer for GFI [View news story]
    I note that investors who buy GFIG today and tender shares to BGC have two likely outcomes. Either the tender offer succeeds, they earn almost 6% on their purchase in a matter of days, or it fails and the CME transaction goes through, in which case they make a little under 2%. The market seems to be thinking that shareholders will vote against the CME transaction, as they should, but in that case CME, GFI and BGC may simply cut a deal, in which case common shareholders would likely still get at least $6.10.
    Jan 29, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense Q3 FY15 Earnings Preview [View article]
    The margin impact has already been seen, and quantified projections its recovery going forward were made in this article, now available only to Pro subscribers:

    My subscribers got a recap of that a few days ago and will get a real time update on earnings tonight. There's also plenty of commentary on the margin issue my prior INVN articles that are still public.

    See the comment in response to Taylor Mill for my thoughts on the new/old iPhone product mix.
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense Q3 FY15 Earnings Preview [View article]
    See this comment:
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips cuts capex by another 15% [View news story]
    Conoco management is an exemplar of foresight and active management. Contrast its liquidation of assets over the past few years and excellent timing in cutting CapEx, with the action of Hess, documented in my recent Pro article. Consequently, Conoco's cash rich position makes it one of the few E&P companies that will preserve its dividend and perhaps even benefit from the current environment in the long run.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense Q3 FY15 Earnings Preview [View article]
    The math is in my Short & Long Terms article:

    All I've done here is plug in the new volume. Sorry, that was clearer in the original version of this article. SA has become progressively more difficult to worth with.

    I think, my point about supply catching up to demand effectively takes care of your shipments to sales concern.

    I don't think many of the 74.5M sold would be older models, but I haven't seen any hard evidence one way or the other. If anyone else has, message me privately with documentation and I'll provide a free 3 month subscription.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense Q3 FY15 Earnings Preview [View article]
    My thoughts are that IoT is a marketing phrase. Sure, lots of things will include sensors and that represents opportunity for InvenSense. I try to look at what's actually being built with InvenSense products, and send updates to to the impact Message me with an email address for real-time updates.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Why InvenSense Is Falling While Other Chip Stocks Rise [View article]
    The preview article is here:
    Jan 29, 2015. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BGC Partners/GFI Group tennis match continues [View news story]
    First of all, this is between BGC and GFI management, not CME. CME has barely budged from its original offer for the software divisions. Almost all the bid increases have come from Gooch & co, since there the ones that are really trying to gain something here.

    Lutnick has expressed confidence that BGC will win. Someone linked to the interview in my BGCP update article. All the stunts recently tell me that GFI management is at the end of their funds and is worried they will lose. Once that becomes clear, there could be a 3-way deal, despite all the animosity.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BGC Partners/GFI Group tennis match continues [View news story]
    I note that George seems to be an account created specifically for making comments on this transaction as the vote draws near. His claims conflict with GFI management's own claims in quarterly reports, made before the CME transaction came into the picture. By contrast, my articles and research go back over a year, and predate the CME transaction. Some of my knowledge comes from people who actually built the systems we're talking about.
    Jan 28, 2015. 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment