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  • Continental Resources - Why Investors Can Expect More Upside [View article]
    This article is more balanced than some I have read, but the crux of it is that oil prices will rebound quickly. I think that argument is incorrect. Given the breakneck pace of drilling through last year, production will remain fairly high. The 23 week lag time cited here is the wrong figure; it's the life cycle of wells that should be looked at, since one wells are drilled they continue to produce for far longer, and shale is just part of that equation.

    Furthermore, I see no chance of the oil export ban actually being lifted in advance of the 2016 election, simply to due to election politics. Even if it were lifted, its not at all clear what the impact on oil prices would be. Hamm has cited $70 WTI (it's currently at $59.63) as the level the company needs, but the better run majors have pretty much all agreed that oil prices will remain depressed for an extended period. Thus, I interpret Continental's complete lack of price hedges as desperation in the face of the balance sheet issues mentioned here. Why hedge if hedging still wouldn't prevent failure?
    May 22, 2015. 02:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GFI Group Comes To Terms With BGC Partners [View article]
    This is of zero fundamental relevance, but definitely worth a laugh...

    Gooch tries to backtrack on statements made before he started working as part of BGC:

    It's noteworthy, that despite pre-takeover statements there was zero turnover amongst the brokers as of the last earnings call.

    It's also an uncharacteristically terrible bit of reporting by Bloomberg. The summary of the business at the end is dated. The main opportunity here continues to be the transition of that old-school business model to higher margin electronic trading.
    May 21, 2015. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe's oil giants look to add unified voice to climate debate [View news story]
    Presumably they'll be more subtle about it than Hamm was

    I'm not sure the science will be any better, though.
    May 20, 2015. 11:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display higher amid Apple speculation [View news story]
    I'd dispute your claim that UDC owns all, or even most, OLED-related patents, if it was worth the time. My first thought was that it's comments and news items like this that degrade the general quality of SA, but maybe your comment is actually a useful sign of something else...
    May 20, 2015. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display higher amid Apple speculation [View news story]
    Sorry, I did not mean to disparage and made no direct reference to my own work. I simply meant to note that if that's what's moving the stock, it is unwarranted, and that I don't want to see a rehash of a rehash article that I glanced over this morning in my news feed hours later. If that's how it's going to be, though, and SA News Editors are uninterested in what one of their readers want, I can always unsubscribe.
    May 20, 2015. 01:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display higher amid Apple speculation [View news story]
    I disagree that a 2-3% fluctuation in stock price is newsworthy.

    If 1 year highs are the news here, then why not highlight SA authors who put forth the same information and analysis months ago?
    May 20, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display higher amid Apple speculation [View news story]
    I note that tMF is rehashing very old news. Now SA is too.
    May 20, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Recovery: Fresh Water Is Being Taken For Granted [View article]
    On oil & gas, see the first comment. In order for Energy Recovery to succeed, you don't want oil & gas to come back big. Instead, you want a price environment that forces these companies to optimize their existing processes.
    May 19, 2015. 10:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy groups ax $100B in total spending after oil rout [View news story]
    I think it's a lot more complicated than "much easier to shut it down that to ramp it up." We've already seen output continue to rise in the face oil prices halving simply due to projects that were started in a $100 price environment. Then there are lease dynamics to be considered, etc., etc. The people who should know, Conoco managment for instance, have just said they don't foresee increasing CapEx again for at least 3 years.
    May 18, 2015. 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Recovery: Fresh Water Is Being Taken For Granted [View article]
    Thanks for the new article, Michael. ERII can certainly use the coverage, since I now only do so for subscribers. As covered in this article,

    I agree with you that the timing is looking better for oil & gas, and that buyout may be a possibility. You really should read the conference call transcript, though, as there are VERY important points that you've failed to mention.

    As just one minor example, there is no doubt at all about the cause of the tripled G&A expenses, and some of them are expected to spill into next quarter, as well, though they should decline. You're right, though, it's starting to look like that will be offset by a finally recovering desalination market.
    May 18, 2015. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Harold Hamm wanted scientists dismissed, dean's e-mail says [View news story]
    The quakes have not been major but are already damaging. Causation is difficult, but correlation has already been established in some areas. Correlation may be enough for a judge or jury, at which point it is property owners and governments that Hamm and others would need to be paying off. Trying to get professors dismissed was an attempt to nip that in the bud. Too late now, and the attempt is not going to help.
    May 16, 2015. 05:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harold Hamm wanted scientists dismissed, dean's e-mail says [View news story]
    Never let science get in the way of profits... except, these days, there are none... just a whole lot of debt.
    May 15, 2015. 07:03 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense, By The Numbers [View article]
    The "high-risk endeavor" in that comment was meant to apply to phone manufacturers attempting to implement their own algos, not InvenSense. I don't see Firefly as particularly high risk, it's just the next natural step of the company's execution. As I noted in more detail to subscribers yesterday, InvenSense is taking new steps to address both prongs of mobile strategy, and to expand into new markets as well.
    May 15, 2015. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avon Products still a minefield [View news story]
    Yes, the maneuver was well-timed with options expiration, and what we're seeing today is simply the result of market dynamics associated with that. Nobody will be surprised to see AVP back down in the $6 range well before month end.
    May 15, 2015. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Camtek -13%; 4.3M-share stock offering launched [View news story]
    It's been over a year since I published my last article on the company

    amid a flurry of bullish articles here, and things haven't changed much since then, just as predicted. It was a wonderful short opportunity at the time, though.

    As for the current devleopment... some investors are inclined to ignore the effects of dilution. They should look to the history of, and my articles on OCAT for color on that.
    May 14, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment