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  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company [View article]
    I'm not ignoring it. What the other company would provide is financing that allows ACT to complete its trials Since other companies in Phase II already have that, what ACT gets from the deal is already baked into these calculations.
    Aug 7 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Shouldn't Be Discouraged By InvenSense's Weak Earnings Forecast [View article]
    Certainly not every detail has been correct. In particular, I was wrong on the prediction that InvenSense would eek out a beat of already lowered guidance in this last report, but they did not. I've also had to back away from the idea that the company would be an acquisition target.

    I'm checking out of this story, but please let me know if the author actually breaks form and responds with some math to justify the claim made by the article.
    Aug 7 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next MoMo Stock, Part 1: Understanding The Momentum Mechanism [View article]
    If you have links to those Peter Way, articles, I'd like to take a look at them.
    Aug 7 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Shouldn't Be Discouraged By InvenSense's Weak Earnings Forecast [View article]
    try to remember to use the reply button so people know who you're dissing without contributing any actual thought.
    Aug 7 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Shouldn't Be Discouraged By InvenSense's Weak Earnings Forecast [View article]
    Thanks for the link, and I agree, investors shouldn't worry about the guidance too much. What they should worry about is the valuation. I can't understand how anyone would quote the YF 342 trailing PE # (or anything else from there), that's just junk. Using the non-GAAP reported figures trailing PE comes to about 48, which is still way too high.

    But that's still not the point. The point is, even if you assume everything goes right (and that hasn't completely been the case lately, despite the spin), and factor in all the rumored growth, doing a forward valuation based on that, the #s STILL come in way too high. InvenSense has a bright future, but any way you slice it, the stock should be priced 20% - 30% lower than it is at present, even considering that.

    This article contains not a shred of actual valuation math. I've done it using several readers assumptions in my articles. I challenge you to come up with inputs that justify the current pricing. The real reasons for the current stock price, which I've discussed elsewhere, are sadly ephemeral.
    Aug 7 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display reiterates guidance; materials sales +32% [View news story]
    The quarter is actually even better than I thought as the main surprise that held back EPS appears to be the introduction of a VAT tax in Japan. I will go through in detail and submit an update, probably tomorrow.
    Aug 7 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display Corp. In The Short And Long Terms [View article]
    UDC has turned in another excellent quarter, beating on both EPS and revenue, affirming guidance towards the top end of their range.. Material sales came in even above what my industry research indicated, though EPS is lower. I'll have to dig to see where that's coming from and provide an update, but everything here seems to affirm my $41 price target.
    Aug 7 04:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display beats by $0.06, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Looks like another excellent quarter. Material sales came in even above what my industry research indicated, though EPS is lower. I'll have to dig to see where that's coming from and provide an update. Everything here seems to affirm the $41 price target first published in my Top Idea article, though.
    Aug 7 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company [View article]
    Sorry, the comment system here continues to have problems.

    My not moving forward comment was in reference to the iPSC platelet program.
    Aug 7 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company [View article]
    Perhaps, but as documented in the prior article. It's not moving forward.
    Aug 7 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Energy Recovery Earnings [View article]
    Here's the earnings call transcript, for those who'd like to dig in:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 7 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Energy Recovery Earnings [View article]
    Management has consistently mentioned that those pilot sites are going well and are essentially being used as showrooms for new customers.

    As for the timing, I've supported management in dropping guidance. If you look through the comments of the last article, you'll find one where I respond to Fitzsimmons, saying that a buy-side analyst friend warned me that the O&G is going to move at its own pace, no matter how compelling the technology. That's exactly what management has found out and is now saying.

    You have to understand that downtime is crazy expensive for these operations, and retrofitting means downtime.
    Aug 7 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company [View article]
    Well, they'll be treating far less than 500K patients in the next year or two, which is the only time frame that this article looks at.

    Please read the prior article to familiarize yourself with the events that I'm referring to and we'll see what the company has to say on Monday night.
    Aug 7 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company [View article]
    Regeneron (the company, REGN refers to their stock) has multiple products already being marketed, many others in the pipeline, and actual earnings. It is not a suitable comparison for ACT, which has none of the above, let alone have a cure for anything.

    It's important for readers to recognize that the valuation calculations I'm offering are just an example of the formula, and that they only represent potential gain over the next year or two, iff ACT cuts a deal and progresses into Phase II.

    Sheesh, 10 times one's investment in a year would make any investor I know quite happy...
    Aug 7 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Advanced Cell Technology As A Phase II Company [View article]
    I'm pretty cynical when it comes to the pharma industry and not at all sure that other drugs cost much more than the figures you're quoting.
    Aug 7 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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