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Esekla  

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  • Looking Beyond The Hess Earnings Report [View article]
    It's relevant because booms are sort of an inverse game of musical chairs. All's well while the music plays, but when the boom turns to bust, there's typically no getting out (grabbing a seat) for anyone, at least not before damage is done. Instead, what matters is whether you were early or late into the game. If you were early, you made your profits during the boom, and just do your best to mitigate the damage. If you entered just before the boom goes bust, then you just blew capital on non-performing assets.

    The Bakken has some of the highest break-even levels and Hess built a massive concentration there over the past couple years, as part of its restructuring from past mistakes. That means they've gotten it exactly wrong, yet again. Compare to Conoco, which has been selling off assets in preparation for just such an environment.

    If you look at the latest earnings call

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    you'll see numerous other mis-steps such as buying back 62.8M shares at an average price of $84.39 per share. Even with the temporary bounce back from the cold snap, that's well over a half BILLION dollars in investor equity down the drain from sheer bad decision making.
    Feb 24, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GFI Group Comes To Terms With BGC Partners [View article]
    The WSJ has an interesting piece on how GFI management continued to hurt common shareholders even in reaching this deal:

    http://on.wsj.com/17U0BuP

    Honestly, though, common shareholders are pretty much never at the top of the pecking order. Given the magnitude of what was being attempted by Gooch & Co., I think they should be pretty happy with how it turned out
    Feb 24, 2015. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    No, they are listing under Nasdaq Global, which is (even) less stringent than Global Select. I don't know if the standards have been recently updated or not.
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    I'd never bothered to confirm or deny your listing assertion before, but looking at

    http://bit.ly/1zBb8mi

    it seems they don't need capital. For the Market Value Standard, for instance, a company can pass simply on the value of listed securities without any income or capital.
    Feb 23, 2015. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    Ocata uplists to Nasdaq as of Feb 26:

    http://bit.ly/1BfYJKB
    Feb 23, 2015. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BGC Partners, GFI reach deal [View news story]
    I don't necessarily disagree regarding the valuation, see comments in my article for why it came in as it did here.
    Feb 22, 2015. 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GFI Group Comes To Terms With BGC Partners [View article]
    I agree, the estimate is a rock bottom valuation, and that's part of why I said my price target is very conservative. Readers of my subscription service got a different price target. This one was changed after multiple interactions with SA editors who, by their own admission, were not particularly informed on the history of the situation, but were steadfast in their desire to only publish this article at the minimum compensation rate. That in turn limited how much length and detail I was willing to go into. So in the end, I just simplified the math and lowered the price target.
    Feb 20, 2015. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display strikes another OLED lighting license deal [View news story]
    Yes their patents are the real deal, but any reader of my OLED articles already knew that. This is a positive development, but not a substantial one in terms of revenue.
    Feb 20, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BGC Partners, GFI reach deal [View news story]
    I'll try to think of it for my upcoming closure article.
    Feb 20, 2015. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display strikes another OLED lighting license deal [View news story]
    Note that, unlike the LG deal, this is another development contract and not really anything to get all that excited about.
    Feb 19, 2015. 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dirty Little Rare Earth Secret [View article]
    Excellent article, although as you point out, the risk and topic has been around for a long time. I see the situation as being a bit like the cold war. You say that investors and Apple should support North American REE initiatives, but the reality is that nobody in the rich world is going to take the hit for actual REE production (in cost and/or environmentally) while China is willing to do so. Conversely, China isn't going to create a real shortage until that suits it for the long game.

    Nonetheless, you're right about Apple's balance sheet creating a false sense of security. The tendency to weaken suppliers mitigates cash security. Relying on buying hardware technology from others rather than developing it also creates an eventual tipping point, as I address here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    That tipping point may be a ways off yet, but my follow up article shows that Apple is continuing rather blindly down that road, as both the company and its investors (judging from many comments) are concerned more with margins than lasting value creation.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I agree that Apple should be held to a higher standard due to its size and success. Furthermore, that size coupled with institutional ownership of 57% means that AAPL may suffer disproportionately in the event that push does come to shove. That's why I went so far as to make the seemingly bizarre proposal that AAPL could eventually come represent an excellent tech market hedge.
    Feb 18, 2015. 10:42 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: ExOne Introduces Innovent [View article]
    ExOne has announced the availability of six new materials for additive manufacturing. Note the materials will still have to be qualified, meaning that ExOne won't even be using them in its own PSCs. Nonetheless, this is a step in the right direction on what continues to look like a long road.

    http://bit.ly/1AmscPn
    Feb 18, 2015. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon And DISH Network: A Marriage That Makes Sense [View article]
    I agree, this might make sense from a P&L and simplicity standpoint. However, I'd be disappointed in maverick Ergen and on behalf of consumers. From another perspective what's really needed is more competition, and that could be provided by pairing up with another company in conjunction with Google's MVNO plans:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 18, 2015. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BGC Partners urges acceptance of tender offer ahead of expiration [View news story]
    Yes, it would be silly not to tender.

    There is no need for another tender as BGC may have enough already, since the 43.3% is very close and that figure was for the beginning of February. Otherwise, you might see another extension, but I doubt you'll see another price increase. Even if there were further price increases, tendered shares would automatically see the benefit of that.
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Short-Term Price Target For BGC Partners [View article]
    Baba,
    I think if you look at peers you'll find that 4.5% yield is historically pretty high, indicating that my short-term price target is conservative. This is especially true if you use other exchanges like CME or CBOE as the peer group. Over the longer term, BGC is going to morph into an exchange so the comparison becomes appropriate.

    The share count information is taken directly from management comments in the linked conference call. I do personalized Q&A via my subscription service. Please message me privately with an email address for details. Subscribers got very valuable real-time analysis of the market reaction right after earnings. That's starting to become a pattern.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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