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  • ConocoPhillips's Oil Sands Mistake [View article]
    I'm not so sure. On the technological side, I see much more opportunity to bring production costs from shale gas down than I do with oil sands. So selling off extra assets, with less upsdide, at a good price seems pretty smart to me.

    Not as smart as selling off their refining operations, though. The shift from oil to gas is only just beginning, and COP positioned themselves brilliantly for that. It showed in the most recent earnings report, and will continue to show for years to come.
    Feb 4 09:53 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: 2014 Prospects Are Dimming [View article]
    I've covered most of this before in my articles. While it's good to see someone else acknowledge the risk to UDC's host business, this article contains some out of date information and gross mis-statement of fact. To hit the larger points:

    Saying that Samsung's mobile phone business is soft may be correct, but itt is simply incorrect to say UDC is not losing market share at Samsung. Samsung is churning out as many AMOLED displays as ever and last we heard, UDC is providing the tech behind all of them. As I've long commented, it doesn't even matter much if Samsung's phone sales are soft, because they can sell as many AMOLED screens as they can make to other manufacturers.

    Cheil industries doesn't even have anything to do with mobile displays anymore. Cheil is now simply the international name of Samsung's Everland division which handles fashon and theme parks. Samsung SDI handles display materials and at last check it was still sourcing them from UDC. That may change, so will a lot of other moving parts...

    As all 3 of my articles have pointed out for over a year now, the real potential for UDC is in TVs, and the latest article shows that opportunity to be (much?) less than year out, not "years", and conservatively calculates a $41 price target for the stock with that time frame. As a Top Idea, that article is no longer public, but Ron Mertens, who knows this industry (though maybe not the investment world) better than just about any public source, has recently published an article here describing the potential of this market.

    A trailing PE of <18 is not "an extremely high multiple" for a company with almost $7 per share on the balance sheet and such a bright future. The single customer issue is a risk I wrote about over a year ago, but if you've been reading along in the comments of my public article, Valuing Universal Display Corp Earnings, you have evidence that is about to change, as well plenty of commentary on the host issue. It's all going to be a matter of timing.

    I recently took an overly harsh tone in Ron's article, so I'm just going to check out of this one after merely commenting on the facts. I do answer questions and publish updates in my public article, mentioned above, though.
    Jul 14 01:47 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems soars on IBM buyout rumors, takes peers higher [View news story]
    As is their habit, the editors linked to a tweet which tells you nothing. In this case, the tweet links to this page which also tells you very little.

    This looks a lot like a pump and dump to capitalize on the short interest, which is probably the only thing in this Market Current, besides reporting on the price movements, that will turn out to be for real.
    Nov 5 10:54 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pay-TV industry: Something has to give [View news story]
    A large number of networks closing up shop seems just fine and dandy to me. What's truly staggering is the purity of much of the junk that gets broadcast. The real takeaway here is that analysts, and more importantly, networks have very little idea what customers really want to watch. Yet somehow, the powers that be have managed to force a system where people pay for all of it regardless.
    Dec 4 05:35 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk defends Tesla as feds start probe [View news story]
    As usual, Tesla's management is pretty impressive in their handling of this matter. They've actually requested the NHTSA probe in order to put the matter to rest as quickly as possible. Furthermore, they've expanded the warranty to include fire because they recognize that's the easiest way to quell any fears for what is really a very rare occurrence.
    Nov 19 08:45 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BMW, Tesla in possible technology partnership [View news story]
    Yes, and fairly important too. I was perhaps the first to write that Musk wants Tesla to be a vertically integrated supplier in a new electric economy. That is to say, it will become the next ExxonMobile, rather than the next GM. Cars are just one of the end-points, and becoming a technology provider to yet another auto manufacturer is a step in the right direction.
    Jun 13 08:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk vs. the NHTSA: The battle that Tesla doesn't want [View news story]
    Probably true, but if our government really works on such emotions, then the government needs a recall. The initial reports really were misleading, as documented here:
    Jan 17 10:05 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tesla Have A Disaster Quarter? [View article]
    "Very generously valued" is putting it euphemistically, but Tesla is executing according to plan. The large after hours move is typical for a momentum stock, and probably not indicative of its future direction. Also, it's often not appreciated that Tesla has TWO potential paths for growing into its valuation. One is mass producing cars, but the other is generating broader adoption of their charging technology, as mentioned here:
    Nov 6 03:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Right Hire, Wrong Time [View article]
    Yes, this is the right hire at the perfect time for Tesla to actually execute on their long-term strategy. A mass market car will have to have more affordable production and the best way to maintain appeal is with excellent human interface design.
    Oct 25 12:14 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Tesla: The company announces it's offering 2.7M shares (current value of $244M) and $450M in convertible debt due 2018 in a public offering. Elon Musk plans to buy $100M worth of shares - $45M through the offering, $55M through a private placement. Tesla expects $830M in gross proceeds. TSLA now +6.8% AH. [View news story]
    Uh no, this takes pressure off the shorts by increasing the float. It also reduces Musk's credibility when he said just a week ago, "Well, we don't have any plans right now to raise funding." The amount Musk is personally buying is trivial: 1/4 the average daily volume, or about 1/15th of today's volume. Anyway it doesn't matter who buys the shares, it's still dilution whether Tesla retail investors understand it or not.
    May 15 04:50 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla (TSLA) takes advantage of its huge run-up to file a mixed shelf. Shares -2.9% AH. (S-3[View news story]
    Yep, there it is, just one week ago in response to the question by Adam Jonas of MS. Elon Musk says, "Well, we don't have any plans right now to raise funding."

    You gotta hand it to him, he gives slimey car salesmen, a whole new image.. or at least a whole new shine on the traditional one.
    May 15 04:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Pick Up These Small Cap Plays [View article]
    Be kind, while Energy Recovery's future does lie beyond desalination, that's what dominates their earnings #s for the moment. I will probably publish another article in the coming weeks on some points that seem to have been missed.
    May 21 11:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: It's All About The Future [View article]
    It seems that you're failing to understand just how forward looking the market is, especially in a zero-interest rate environment. Furthermore, people have plenty of ideas and even some evidence regarding what consumers will like. That doesn't mean the market is right, but you need to understand that we are in the business of determining how the market will allocate capital, not if a business model will ultimately succeed or fail. For the next year or two, at least, it's going to be VERY hard to wage a convincing argument that Tesla's vertically integrated business plan is bound to fail. As a consequence, as long as there is viable argument on both sides, you're going see TSLA shares continue to trade on these market dynamics:
    Mar 3 11:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: It's All About The Future [View article]
    I'd have to agree. There are certainly risks to Tesla's business model, but the terms of the bond offering alone show that those risks are strictly long-term. Therefore the price movement for the next two years is likely to be driving by the company's future potential, which extends well beyond the auto industry. This is not just my opinion, it's clearly the opinion of accredited investors willing to commit at least $2 billion in capital:
    Mar 3 10:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron Is A Disappointment [View article]
    Sure, but bad companies don't become good companies just because their stock gets cheaper.

    I'm not saying this necessarily applies to Chevron, just noting that you haven't exactly completed your logical argument.
    Feb 4 11:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment