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Esekla

 
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  • Will ConocoPhillips Cut Its Dividend? [View article]
    I think CapEx should (and will) continue to be cut further instead.
    Jan 19, 2015. 05:21 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama to push more city broadband building [View news story]
    I take it you haven't traveled abroad. The U.S. ranks near the bottom of the developed world for broadband services, and below even some nations that are considered emerging or third world. I can get internet service in the states, but it is seldom of the quality or value available elsewhere.

    A push local wires that are managed in the same way as local streets is a good thing. Free enterprise can and should still occur by solicitation of bids for maintaining the infrastructure and by allowing multiple data providers to compete over that infrastructure. Maintenance of infrastructure and services over that infrastructure need to be separated, though. That's what's been holding us back and allowing price-gouging by the monopolies and duopolies.
    Jan 14, 2015. 09:01 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips's Oil Sands Mistake [View article]
    I'm not so sure. On the technological side, I see much more opportunity to bring production costs from shale gas down than I do with oil sands. So selling off extra assets, with less upsdide, at a good price seems pretty smart to me.

    Not as smart as selling off their refining operations, though. The shift from oil to gas is only just beginning, and COP positioned themselves brilliantly for that. It showed in the most recent earnings report, and will continue to show for years to come.
    Feb 4, 2014. 09:53 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Display: 2014 Prospects Are Dimming [View article]
    I've covered most of this before in my articles. While it's good to see someone else acknowledge the risk to UDC's host business, this article contains some out of date information and gross mis-statement of fact. To hit the larger points:

    Saying that Samsung's mobile phone business is soft may be correct, but itt is simply incorrect to say UDC is not losing market share at Samsung. Samsung is churning out as many AMOLED displays as ever and last we heard, UDC is providing the tech behind all of them. As I've long commented, it doesn't even matter much if Samsung's phone sales are soft, because they can sell as many AMOLED screens as they can make to other manufacturers.

    Cheil industries doesn't even have anything to do with mobile displays anymore. http://bit.ly/1zC3zyh Cheil is now simply the international name of Samsung's Everland division which handles fashon and theme parks. Samsung SDI handles display materials http://bit.ly/1zC3BGi and at last check it was still sourcing them from UDC. That may change, so will a lot of other moving parts...

    As all 3 of my articles have pointed out for over a year now, the real potential for UDC is in TVs, and the latest article shows that opportunity to be (much?) less than year out, not "years", and conservatively calculates a $41 price target for the stock with that time frame. As a Top Idea, that article is no longer public, but Ron Mertens, who knows this industry (though maybe not the investment world) better than just about any public source, has recently published an article here describing the potential of this market.

    A trailing PE of <18 is not "an extremely high multiple" for a company with almost $7 per share on the balance sheet and such a bright future. The single customer issue is a risk I wrote about over a year ago, but if you've been reading along in the comments of my public article, Valuing Universal Display Corp Earnings, you have evidence that is about to change, as well plenty of commentary on the host issue. It's all going to be a matter of timing.

    I recently took an overly harsh tone in Ron's article, so I'm just going to check out of this one after merely commenting on the facts. I do answer questions and publish updates in my public article, mentioned above, though.
    Jul 14, 2014. 01:47 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Contributors Top List Of Best Performing Financial Bloggers [View article]
    94% accurate? What exactly does that mean?

    TR doesn't even show most of my calls and is wrong on 3 out of 5 the "latest" that it does. See my comment below for an example. The problem is that ongoing nuanced analysis often doesn't easily categorize as buy or sell, and when something changes about a thesis, that news is often going to come in a comment rather than an article.

    And before I get invited to go make corrections, that's simply not something I, or many others whose analysis isn't completely one-side, are going to spend uncompensated time on, especially when the base data seems far off to begin with.
    Jan 5, 2015. 04:08 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • White House goes to bat for Qualcomm against China [View news story]
    I'm not sure what anyone thinks will come of this. In 2011 American Superconductor (AMSC) uncovered proof that Sinovel, amongst other Chinese firms, was outright stealing its technology with the help of an AMSC employee. The employee was convicted months later, yet in the intervening 4 YEARS Chinese courts have done little more than decide who will listen to the evidence. In the meantime, AMSC has gone from a $50 stock to less than a dollar and is in danger of de-listing. The idea that press opportunities like this are going to produce any meaningful effects is pretty laughable.
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:33 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems soars on IBM buyout rumors, takes peers higher [View news story]
    As is their habit, the editors linked to a tweet which tells you nothing. In this case, the tweet links to this page http://bit.ly/1b25oby which also tells you very little.

    This looks a lot like a pump and dump to capitalize on the short interest, which is probably the only thing in this Market Current, besides reporting on the price movements, that will turn out to be for real.
    Nov 5, 2013. 10:54 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama backs tough net neutrality rules [View news story]
    It's good to see someone meaningfully push the FCC to deviate from its usual M.O. of completely wrecking American telecommunications.
    Nov 10, 2014. 10:59 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Annual Meeting Announcement: A Harbinger Of...? [View article]
    Dilution hasn't happened yet. Management has simply asked for the ability to increase share count sometime after the meeting. For all we know, dilution won't happen unless the shares are issued as part of a JV. However, management making a claim like that would simply open them up to later lawsuits if a deal fell through because the stock price rose too much.

    Similarly, it's barely two weeks since the R/S. An up-list certainly wouldn't happen in that time. Even it took another two months, I'd consider that nearly simultaneous, since the timing is not completely under management's control. Not that I recall them ever promising it would be simultaneous in the first place. Please link to sources!

    Finally, there are no preferred shares. Please read before commenting! This is exactly the sort of information the article refers to. I could have your commented deleted, but I'd rather let it stand so that readers can make their own judgments about the credibility of your comments in general.
    Sep 12, 2014. 08:24 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pay-TV industry: Something has to give [View news story]
    A large number of networks closing up shop seems just fine and dandy to me. What's truly staggering is the purity of much of the junk that gets broadcast. The real takeaway here is that analysts, and more importantly, networks have very little idea what customers really want to watch. Yet somehow, the powers that be have managed to force a system where people pay for all of it regardless.
    Dec 4, 2013. 05:35 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk defends Tesla as feds start probe [View news story]
    As usual, Tesla's management is pretty impressive in their handling of this matter. They've actually requested the NHTSA probe in order to put the matter to rest as quickly as possible. Furthermore, they've expanded the warranty to include fire because they recognize that's the easiest way to quell any fears for what is really a very rare occurrence.
    Nov 19, 2013. 08:45 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InvenSense beats by $0.01, beats on revenue [View news story]
    That should be $115M in revenue, beating by $4M, as reported to my readers 20 minutes ago.
    Jan 29, 2015. 04:40 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Not only was QE halted, but Eric Parnell thinks that Ms. Yellen's most recent speech signals an even more significant shift in Fed Policy. I'm not sure he's completely right about that, but I do think there is much more volatility to come. That why I recently wrote an article examining the potential value of AAPL as a hedge against the broader market.

    Also, the figures citing economic growth are mostly fudged. Unemployment numbers no longer count all people of working age, and inflation numbers ignore food and energy. Consequently GDP has little bearing on common households any more. Ms. Yellen's speech does confirm this much in spades. The roots of the problem go back a long way and a future article of mine may detail those roots.
    Nov 1, 2014. 03:01 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    Yes, I responded also, and you'll see we agree on some points, most notably that Yellen's words don't imply policy change, per se, but rather simply recognition of a problem. Unlike you, I do think the problem is exacerbated by monetary policy.

    I don't know why you assume I'm uneducated on the subject matter, other than that perhaps your world view is so set that you make that claim for anyone whose viewpoint conflicts with yours. Certainly I encountered that a lot when working with individuals with similar resumes to yours. For what it's worth, I've long been aware that inflation figures are published both with and without food & energy. Guess which one has more bearing on monetary policy? I'd ask you to explain your tone when acknowledging that Unemployment numbers have never been calculated in a very useful way, but I generally don't find these debates very productive. Hopefully, for your readers' sake, you don't make assumptions so easily before doling out your opinions.

    For those who do want to learn though, here's an article (not mine) on how the GDP calculations were changed in order to prepare for the end of QE, which was nearing its logical limits without much good effect:

    http://nws.mx/1as9K93

    Still, the mechanics of the calculation are less important than the basic understanding that printing more money simply causes it to slosh between investment firms like in a big poker game and doesn't improve the lives of anyone except those who win the game. The argument that the capital filters down to do much of anything that actually affects the material world has worn increasingly thin. More and more, that capital is simply being used to prevent the creative destruction that would lead to real, material growth that everyone could eventually benefit from. Sorry if that's an inconvenient truth for your line of work.
    Nov 1, 2014. 05:00 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Signs That Apple's Next Breakout May Be Its Last [View article]
    Actually my gain on InvenSense was ~150% and I took a lot of flack for repeatedly saying that it was overpriced in advance of the Apple design win, which I correctly called the timing of. It's only now, that the pullback I predicted has materialized that I am rebuilding my INVN position, and my latest INVN balance sheet article shows that unlike GTAT, the investment is safe enough. InvenSense has a reasonably diversified business to go with its technology and lead. Apple needs them for the watch, but if they were to switch away for other devices InvenSense would lose some income, but continue just fine. That's why I'd often praised them for avoiding Apple's usual margin-wrecking scam. I'll be looking carefully at the next earnings report, which should include some part sales to Apple to make sure that continues to be the case.
    Oct 10, 2014. 03:25 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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