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  • ConocoPhillips's Oil Sands Mistake [View article]
    I'm not so sure. On the technological side, I see much more opportunity to bring production costs from shale gas down than I do with oil sands. So selling off extra assets, with less upsdide, at a good price seems pretty smart to me.

    Not as smart as selling off their refining operations, though. The shift from oil to gas is only just beginning, and COP positioned themselves brilliantly for that. It showed in the most recent earnings report, and will continue to show for years to come.
    Feb 4 09:53 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems soars on IBM buyout rumors, takes peers higher [View news story]
    As is their habit, the editors linked to a tweet which tells you nothing. In this case, the tweet links to this page which also tells you very little.

    This looks a lot like a pump and dump to capitalize on the short interest, which is probably the only thing in this Market Current, besides reporting on the price movements, that will turn out to be for real.
    Nov 5 10:54 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pay-TV industry: Something has to give [View news story]
    A large number of networks closing up shop seems just fine and dandy to me. What's truly staggering is the purity of much of the junk that gets broadcast. The real takeaway here is that analysts, and more importantly, networks have very little idea what customers really want to watch. Yet somehow, the powers that be have managed to force a system where people pay for all of it regardless.
    Dec 4 05:35 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk defends Tesla as feds start probe [View news story]
    As usual, Tesla's management is pretty impressive in their handling of this matter. They've actually requested the NHTSA probe in order to put the matter to rest as quickly as possible. Furthermore, they've expanded the warranty to include fire because they recognize that's the easiest way to quell any fears for what is really a very rare occurrence.
    Nov 19 08:45 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk vs. the NHTSA: The battle that Tesla doesn't want [View news story]
    Probably true, but if our government really works on such emotions, then the government needs a recall. The initial reports really were misleading, as documented here:
    Jan 17 10:05 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tesla Have A Disaster Quarter? [View article]
    "Very generously valued" is putting it euphemistically, but Tesla is executing according to plan. The large after hours move is typical for a momentum stock, and probably not indicative of its future direction. Also, it's often not appreciated that Tesla has TWO potential paths for growing into its valuation. One is mass producing cars, but the other is generating broader adoption of their charging technology, as mentioned here:
    Nov 6 03:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Right Hire, Wrong Time [View article]
    Yes, this is the right hire at the perfect time for Tesla to actually execute on their long-term strategy. A mass market car will have to have more affordable production and the best way to maintain appeal is with excellent human interface design.
    Oct 25 12:14 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Tesla: The company announces it's offering 2.7M shares (current value of $244M) and $450M in convertible debt due 2018 in a public offering. Elon Musk plans to buy $100M worth of shares - $45M through the offering, $55M through a private placement. Tesla expects $830M in gross proceeds. TSLA now +6.8% AH. [View news story]
    Uh no, this takes pressure off the shorts by increasing the float. It also reduces Musk's credibility when he said just a week ago, "Well, we don't have any plans right now to raise funding." The amount Musk is personally buying is trivial: 1/4 the average daily volume, or about 1/15th of today's volume. Anyway it doesn't matter who buys the shares, it's still dilution whether Tesla retail investors understand it or not.
    May 15 04:50 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla (TSLA) takes advantage of its huge run-up to file a mixed shelf. Shares -2.9% AH. (S-3[View news story]
    Yep, there it is, just one week ago in response to the question by Adam Jonas of MS. Elon Musk says, "Well, we don't have any plans right now to raise funding."

    You gotta hand it to him, he gives slimey car salesmen, a whole new image.. or at least a whole new shine on the traditional one.
    May 15 04:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: It's All About The Future [View article]
    It seems that you're failing to understand just how forward looking the market is, especially in a zero-interest rate environment. Furthermore, people have plenty of ideas and even some evidence regarding what consumers will like. That doesn't mean the market is right, but you need to understand that we are in the business of determining how the market will allocate capital, not if a business model will ultimately succeed or fail. For the next year or two, at least, it's going to be VERY hard to wage a convincing argument that Tesla's vertically integrated business plan is bound to fail. As a consequence, as long as there is viable argument on both sides, you're going see TSLA shares continue to trade on these market dynamics:
    Mar 3 11:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: It's All About The Future [View article]
    I'd have to agree. There are certainly risks to Tesla's business model, but the terms of the bond offering alone show that those risks are strictly long-term. Therefore the price movement for the next two years is likely to be driving by the company's future potential, which extends well beyond the auto industry. This is not just my opinion, it's clearly the opinion of accredited investors willing to commit at least $2 billion in capital:
    Mar 3 10:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron Is A Disappointment [View article]
    Sure, but bad companies don't become good companies just because their stock gets cheaper.

    I'm not saying this necessarily applies to Chevron, just noting that you haven't exactly completed your logical argument.
    Feb 4 11:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Hope Is Not A Strategy. We Have Seen This Bubble Movie Before [View article]
    Interesting that you say we've seen this movie before, because it's essentially the Netflix plot line. Remember they had a similar marketing snafu a couple years back, look at the results to date.

    The market dynamics behind these stocks are far more complicated than you're asserting, and the "Newtons" in the world would make up only a tiny fraction of the available capital moving these stocks.

    Here is a far better rationale for the market dynamics behind them:
    Nov 26 01:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors takes another leg down [View news story]
    Company specific news is not light. The move seems to be due to:

    1) News of an insider sale.

    2) A lot of press about a Toyota Hydrogen concept car set to be introduced in a couple of years.

    Although I'd discounted hydrogen as a near term option, the latter is the sort of competition reflect on in my long term Tesla article here:

    Despite the move, Tesla's long term thesis is still very much intact, and this seems to be very similar to the drop we saw in Netflix a couple of years ago:
    Nov 18 02:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Tesla: Intrinsic Value Of $36 Per Share, Is The Bubble Now Deflating? [View article]
    Shorting TSLA is very dangerous advice. One of the first rules of shorting is "never short on valuation alone". Furthermore, stocks caught in the Momentum Mechanism typically experience large after hours moves for reasons explained here:

    Investors who shorted NFLX just after a similarly solid quarter on the theory that the bubble was deflating are now out 10% in a matter of days. The article above explains the mechanisms at work and thus market data which has true predictive capability.
    Nov 6 03:22 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment